Ralph Wiggum

18z GEFS say nah....we're going full blown Eastern torch same time. That GEFS run was a trainwreck. Some ridging from the massive central Pac ridge trying to nose into the EPO region so there's that but even so any effects we would incur seem to be farther down the line.

Towards the end of the GEFS way out in fantasy land the W displaced EPO ridge is trying to build and nose closer to the AO region fwiw. Not the Atl side you mentioned but maybe a needle in a haystack positive coming out of that Pac ridge anyway.

We had classes cancelled just SW of Philly and were forecast 4-8" or 5-10" and got zilch....not a flurry, not a drop of rain. That was a tough pill to swallow...thanks for bringing it up lol.

Not to derail the thread, but can you explain NAM or provide some reading/links for study? This is one that I have limited experience with. Thanks.

P003 plz

Not horrible:

I didnt have a chance to go back thru the thread....so I apologize if discussed already. I did see the euro weeklies but nobody mentioned the CFS new weeklies that I saw. Jan 20-27 BN temps and AN precip. Then much BN temps but dry into mid Feb. Better than doom gloom torch puke talk anyway.

If things degrade enough going forward they have to reach rock bottom at some point and start heading favorable. It might be June but heck let's root for rock bottom sooner than later. Ens means toward the end say we are close.

I'm with PSU....give it till mid January before kicking to the curb. But the looks of things honestly, we are going to be hanging all hope on the final 1/3 of the season when things get convoluted. There is nothing wrong with that scenario either. Still feel a larger storm is in the cards. Might be 2016 redux one and done....who knows.

Happy New Year @Ji

Not surprised the Euro and GFS went cutter with the Jan 7ish window. CMC is still south but my guess is will trend cutter as well once lead time shrinks. PNA not timed right and se ridge flexes wrong time.

St Patrick's Day and Easter will rock! That is, if the progression happens as some are suggesting. Grass is shooting up here past few days and weeds sprouting. Might be time for the mower and weedwhacker.

If you loop the ens means that central Pac ridge looks like the storm on Jupiter. It never moves.

Quick, someone post a few clown maps to lighten the mood in here.

Most depressing run of the year. The se ridge looks immovable and the nao is super positive January thaw after our MECS

Like the GEPS ?

Ooops....taking the walk of shame off into the horizon......

@Ji This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :

While likely partially out to lunch, the ICON is rolling the ridge East in lieu of the amplifying -PNA. I'll save surface extrapolation for the die hards

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

12z should give us some clarity on the situation /s

That dry slot looks damaging Doubt we get an amped up storm which would mean dry slot. If we get an amped phaser then game on for the OV ie cutter city.

Is that the Nina looks that several have stated January is evolving towards? Ie ridge N of Hawaii extending towards the Aleutians and West Coast trof?

Amazing. That block is reminiscent of the epic NAO blocks we saw at range last year that kept fading. This will be the look that holds tho and probably ends up being even stronger lol. Block near Scandinavia isnt bad but need that to move into the NAO region.