Ralph Wiggum

Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up.

You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore.

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges?

We need more windows. Windows produce.

Probably nearing time we should start tracking another President's Day storm.

I really think after many were saying the overall look is similar to last winter we are going to get burned again like last winter with these LR ens and weeklies. When they show a poor pattern they are right. When they are all in agreement with good looks tho......

How is the storm after this storm looking?

Slop to rain this weekend, far offshore bomb, then another cutter. Cool pattern.

Looking like a trivial event maybe we can score 1" which would be our largest storm of the season. <deep breath.....exhales slowly> sigh

ICON is a major sleet/ice event...only about an inch snow verbatim.

DT has a new video

Changeover to non-snow precip almost always happens sooner than modeled.

Not sure what you saw but didnt appear as a step back to my eyes at all. Much deeper CAD that run and much less influence from a weakening primary. Gonna be messy this weekend.

Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps.

Euro next week is hinting KU type system. Not quite there yet at the surface this run but 500mb maps are honking. Eta: read that the EPS are not impressed

Euro is a solid thump then changeover. The CMC and GFS are solid hits and trending to no flip to rain. Fun times ahead.

Should we still not bother? Whatcha thinking?

Agreed....and 5 days away still. Seeing better trends at 6z and already at 12z irt slp placement, hp placement and strength. Hoping we can trend to the better or remain stable and not back down leading up to the event. Tracking helmet and goggles on!

ICON has a 1047 high near quebec at 108. Stronger depiction past few runs anyway.

Sounds about right, even the Euro spits out about 8" here tho not all is snow. What we are seeing however especially in the ens is a weaker primary, less of a move into upstate NY (remember models had this into Quebec province a few days ago), and a stronger signal for a coastal wave developing east of the DelMarVa becoming the primary. Something to keep an eye on as the weaker primary and better redevelopment reflection is in response to the ridging up top which when we saw this in late Nov into early Dec killed the primary faster. Will be interesting to see how that feature plays out now in prime climo. Guessing many W of i95 and N of the m/d line see at least a few inches of pure thump snows before changing over IF these looks hold and dont morph into something completely different at 500mb.

Better choice for subscription service weatherbell, weathermodels, or is there one I am overlooking? Looking for access to detailed ens members primarily. @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman

When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks.

People in the Carolinas must be licking their chops at the LR ens.

12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen.