Ralph Wiggum

Gfs likely too fast with the change....probably the follow up system that will bring smiles all around Jan 20-24 range. Eta: but of course the GFS op is trying to overwhelm the pattern with cold so we play the patiently waiting game for now and see how the NS flow evolves

Euro has had several situations (at least 3 imby/region) where it had measurable snow 84 hours out then caved to the virtually snowless GFS. I honestly expected more digital fantasy snowstorms on the FV3/GFS this year. It is staying in its lane so far for the most part.

This isnt a bad look. 50/50, ridging nosing into GL, elongated/splitting PV, ridging S Central Canada near HB and nosing SE, neutral PNA, ull or vort pass near region.

EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad.

CFS weeklies were hinting at that. Had the crud pattern this week transitioning to near normal temps above normal precip then finally to cold/dry and eventually colder/drier first week or so of Feb.

12z GEFS is trending favorably towards a -AO towards the end of the run. Has been hinting at this signal for several runs now.

Getting closer to reaching 8/1 maybe with some high amplitude.

Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL.

That's quite the progression of the Pac ridge blob into the EPO and moving into the AO towards the end of the OP run. Usual caveat...it's an op run at range but that's one way to potentially make Feb a very memorable one. I also like how the Pac death ridge was replaced with a strong trof.

No southern sliders. Said a few times already these looks have an icy/mix feel to them.

I want to walk across the bridge.

GFS is trying to go bonkers in fantasyland

Noticed this icy look has been a signal for quite a while now around that time. I'm wondering if we enter a 93-94 redux for a period with more icy than white. Certainly has that reflection to some of the pattern appearances we are seeing spit out from the ens.

6z GEFS caving to a +PNA look in the LR and hints of a ridge bridge from EPO thru AO across the NAO and into Scandinavia.

Also referred to around these parts as "winter cancel". Let them jump ship....this isnt over yet.

Go back to my post from yesterday. The 3 major ens families keep trading places irt good vs bad. Good sign a change is coming in one form or another. I will say that the EPS has showed a few consecutive good looks that are actually moving closer in time so there's that. It is either seeing things better or it is stubborn and maybe it is consistently wrong.

Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.

@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.

EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?