Ralph Wiggum

So a "Lucy Pull", so-to- speak?

Euro op looks like a complete cave to the gfs...waiting for surface map but h5 is good.

Doing typical euro type stuff with the slowwwww adjustments each run rather than 1 big jump..classic. And yes, I know this is the AIFS but same family of euro

Weenie run for sure!

USA vs Slovakia hockey today BTW. USA USA USA!!!

I now fully expect the euro to cave at 12z if and only if the gfs holds serve tho..... But would be fitting the gfs goes ots and the euro goes the way of 6z gfs lol

Fv3 jumped n and w umm folks.....

Parents live there. I may do it

I feel bad for the ponies on Assateague

Heavier stuff makes it us this run SE PA

Looks improved to.me but what do I know

Its essentially a sref member so no surprise

In fairness almost all guidance has rain for the area thru 7-9PM sunday with temps crashing after that. Question remains how much precip is left after that time.

Met in a different sub states 0z and 6z suites were actually steps back from 18z yesterday

Wow on the euro. Hold its ground. Less than an inch most of South Jersey where the GFS has 3 feet in spots. The pros say go with the Euro. I say go with the least snowiest model. I think we all.know inside how this will play out, let's not kid ourselves. Its been fun tho.

This isnt one of those Miller storms with a wide swath of heavy snow. Rather this is a tight core of ccb making this a forecasting nightmare between a gfs solution and a nudge east and a bust. The margin for error is extremely small.

I feel like if we follow the Euro-NAM least snowy thing we are setting up for a surprise. Then I feel like if we go with the GFS we get the March 2001 rug pull. I suppose ICON middle of the road is the way to go with del and NJ being the jack zone.

All 3 of those tighten the system and because of the cleaner phase keep the good qpf well south and east though. Not sure we want a clean phase unless it happens alot sooner and farther NW. If you want the possible big dog then yes, full clean phase. If you want guaranteed low end SECS then roll the dice with more separation and the PVA precip followed by the ull/ivt stuff. What i dont like about the full clean phase is we increase the chances significantly for a rug pull last minute. Tho i suppose thats the chance we take when rooting for a big dog always.

Let's be real, this is only less than a 6 hour timing difference wrt the 2 shortwaves between being a GFS tucked bomb or a NAM March 2001 rug pull. I will forever have ptsd from that storm and I am getting similar vibes. I am strongly urging cautious optimism from everyone because 1) we still dont have unanimous agreement 2) if the euro isnt biting its probably right and 3) always go with the least snowiest model. Not trying to deb, but alot of us, especially me included, can let emotions take hold. GFS doubled down again but could it be completely wrong and the slp escape east? You better believe that scenario is possible. Ive seen the gfs hold until 12 hours prior before....it can be stubborn.

I was wondering where tf you got to

Precip shield expanded NW interestingly enough. Yes im talking to myself. Dont judge me

Looks a tick east aside from 1 or 2 slp centers that held no?

So euro-nam rule vs the gfs? Are we still following Hurricane Schwartz' advice.and siding with the superior Euro and just tossing the GFS?