Ralph Wiggum

GEFS actually came North:

Awaiting the gefs ensembles, but until then, the signal across the other recent ens families looks fairly strong to me:

Of course it will end eventually. But last week after I posted that Hurricane Schwartz thinks winter will linger later this year you said that means the opposite and here we are at 15F at 5pm about a week later. So sure, you can turn your nose to the science and the forecasts or you can just accept that we are having a long harsh winter. It will eventually end, birds will chirp, life will go on, and we will be complaining about 7 days straight of heat indices of 110+ and sky-high electric bills from the AC.

Will the folks who stated winter is over (in the midst of the coldest outbreak in decades mind you), please raise your hands and immediately go to the back of the class.

Drought guy is going to end up with a 3-week out Nostradamus-type snowstorm call for the burbs next weekend. Now the euro has it too.

GFS clipped us but bombogenesis right after it passed. Was close to something bigger. Ends up sub 970 low in the Atlantic.

GFS also with a hit. Winter not wanting to end. Its like the jelly of the month club.

ICON is a MECS next Sunday.

I was going to do it. Just not sure if I need to turn power off at the emergency switch or leave it on. Also, should keep the heat turned to 'off' on the thermostat while I bleed or does that need to be turned on also?

We are in the thick of it. 7F and my auto fill home heating oil company let my tank run dry. The joys of home ownership. Sitting at 61F in the living room. Emergency oil fill on the way. Any of you guys ever bleed a furnace oil line? Ensembles signaling some wintry weather 15th then again 20th with another AO plunge and more winter for at least the remainder of Feb, tho weeklies and cfs stuff suggest March will be quite the ride.

Sad day

Temp down 3 degrees in last 25 mins. Sitting at 9F

Just added last evenings snow to my signature and saw i am at 30.6" on the season. Still a tenth of an inch shy of what we saw by the airport for Blizzard 96

13F here, and gusty. Ended with .2" snow past 18 hrs. In other news, I finally utilized the ignore feature on this site.

Euro is a weenie run. Ensembles lighting up.

Was never impressed with tonight's "event". Thinking most spots will be lucky to see a fresh coating with a dusting being more realistic. Scattered snow shows will be the rule with any 'jackpot' areas of a coating being the exception. Bundle up, a cold Saturday is on tap.

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

Just saw March analogs for the East are pointing to another below avg month. All extended ens including the euro weeklies say hold up not so fast with the welcome spring talk. And the ens maps showing the spv completely splitting coupled with the AO diving back negative after mid Feb strongly suggests we are far from sustained spring weather. Now if I were to bet, and I think I mentioned it a couple days ago, we will end up with a few more winter weather events, maybe even an anomalous type of late season winter storm that we talk about for a while. There is a fair amt of model support, and when you start to see some conservative and very well-respected mets starting to buzz, this likely has some legs. Probably heading into a roller coaster of weather with some wild results.

Dont shoot the messenger

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left.... He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong nor sustained as 25-26.

A Nino with a -AO and possibly -NAO? Sign me up

32F!!!!

Sun angle season

Delete this thread before 18z and open a fresh thread for the event.

A balmy 25F. Large sheets of 4-6" glacier sliding off the roof and crushing everything in their path.