Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. EPS continue to slowly improve for our region. In addition the signal for the period Jan 28-Feb7 continues to improve and show more potential.
  2. Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels!
  3. Euro is cold at the surface....26F here during the height of the event 850s are -2. There is a tight gradient just south tho around the DE border. 850s are warm to the South....scary warm. A good snow hit for some here and a very icy hit for others.
  4. What is the precip type in DC at 126?
  5. That's a strong ass primary trying to drive into that block. Banana high over top of it at the surface .
  6. The 0z op couldn't get much farther S. I expect it to follow the 6z eps N.
  7. Gradient patterns will do that. Like PSU has been saying, where's the cold tho? In any normal winter the gradient with that look would be 60s to the South and upper single digits/teens not too far N.
  8. Well it hardly drops any precip soooo
  9. GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op.
  10. Squall ripping thru here. Windblown sideways stuff. 36F
  11. Don't worry about the ops just yet dude. Another couple of days. The EPS ticked N again and we are currently still in a good spot on those. GEFS adjusting towards the EPS this AM. Steady as she goes. What I do like is we aren't in the bullseye yet...has been wobbling around N....then S towards DC yesterday....and so far this AM seems to be inching back N on the ens means towards our area. I dont dislike this trend at all right now.
  12. They cancelled winter back in October, even before Ji normally does.
  13. Do you have the same GEPS and GEFS map for comparison purposes?
  14. EPS and GEPS respectable snow hits for Central and S parts of the PHL region early next week. GEFS ticked in our favor as well but still seems to be sniffing glue. 150 hrs to go. Plenty of time to trend either way. Strong signal on the ens means and a good spot to be attm.
  15. It is becoming clear to me that the Euro/CMC families are handling the west based nao rex a whole hell of alot better than the GFS family. For whatever reason as far back as when the GFS was the MRF I recall it struggling wrt the NS underneath blocking and it seems this is the case still 25 years later amidst all of the upgrades. I could be wrong in my analysis however and the GFS and GEFS may be the one on the right page, but recent trends seem to be in support of Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS.
  16. Jackpot and at the 150hr threshold!
  17. They also have one of the best backup goalies in the league Brian Elliott who stopped 40 tonight in a shutout. This team is the real deal. Long run of ineptitude now finally contenders again.
  18. How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression, that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in.
  19. Well, suppression is the bigger concern for next week if we are going to fail. At that point Imma just throw my hands up and question why I enjoy this hobby lol. But I dont think there is cause for alarm yet. We are over 160 hrs out for wave 1 and we have literally run the gamut of solutions today alone. And wave 1 dictates the baroclinic boundary for the followup waves. So just need to keep watching for any trends. The ens means are on board and imo that along with the pattern supporting wintry threats here are what is important attm....not how an ops model bounces around like a jumping bean from one run to the next.