Ralph Wiggum

Just saw March analogs for the East are pointing to another below avg month. All extended ens including the euro weeklies say hold up not so fast with the welcome spring talk. And the ens maps showing the spv completely splitting coupled with the AO diving back negative after mid Feb strongly suggests we are far from sustained spring weather. Now if I were to bet, and I think I mentioned it a couple days ago, we will end up with a few more winter weather events, maybe even an anomalous type of late season winter storm that we talk about for a while. There is a fair amt of model support, and when you start to see some conservative and very well-respected mets starting to buzz, this likely has some legs. Probably heading into a roller coaster of weather with some wild results.

Dont shoot the messenger

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left.... He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong nor sustained as 25-26.

A Nino with a -AO and possibly -NAO? Sign me up

32F!!!!

Sun angle season

Delete this thread before 18z and open a fresh thread for the event.

A balmy 25F. Large sheets of 4-6" glacier sliding off the roof and crushing everything in their path.

When this crap thaws its going to look like landmines attacked the roads. Worse than 2014 I bet.

Not mine, zero credit taken. Snagged off of FB. But yeah I agree...super resolution! Really captures the moment.

Se PA jackpot. A real snow town!

Saw this today, thought it was cool. SS Atlantus concrete ship in Cape May:

I feel like every week since Thanksgiving we have been tracking 'something'. There may have been like a 5 day stretch in early Jan where there was nothing going on, but I know we've been tracking alot just going off of how mentally drained i am this year. Some years im away from this board for weeks at a time. This year there hasn't been a hiatus. Keep it coming!!

Agreed. Used to joke that this was just another old fart like most of us, but this gent has taken more notes over the years than most of us combined.

100% friend! I have the winter at a solid B/B+ right now. Only factor not placing this winter into the "A" category is I am at avg snowfall for the season. We've had the cold, we've had the snow cover, we've had the very brief "thaw".....get me above avg snowfall and this winter becomes "A" class.

I can say this with certainty....we are not finished wrt snowfall for this winter. Questions now are....clean storm? Thump to taint? Light events? Big storm? Im leaning towards a few lighter events and maybe a decent thump to shit as we roll into March. But those folks suggesting we are done just because we are in a cold/dry phase need to sit back and be patient. This season is very different as we have already seen. Analytics suggest a big storm isnt the norm in a Nina, but I wouldnt be surprised if we end with something 'blockbuster', whatever that may be. Things are reloading....buckle up folks.

Se PA deathband! Let's spread this among friends.

I mean...how could it not be. Us weenies love a little Beaver moon.

I will accept my 12 flake refresher! https://youtu.be/w2kf6xcuBhg?si=E3EtSdwHRTEuMSYu

Im ready for a slow thaw. First time since ive lived in my home the pipes in the cellar froze yesterday. Nothing a blow dryer couldn't handle but damn its cold

ICON. And Nam both have light accumulating snow Wednesday. Rgem has snow showers. Decent start to 12z.

This is 1000% coming North!! Just loop the latest nexrad

Who are we referencing here?

Several periods of opportunity on the ensembles (feb 5, feb 8, feb 10-11, feb 14-16). Icon has a raging winter storm mid week (probably wrong?). Far from a snoozefest. But go get your zzz's , we can wake you in april.