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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Im not loving all 3 major ens systems taking the system farther off the coast at 0z. If we are going to have a reversal like last system, changes need to happen by 12z wednesday imo. This was looking better 24 hrs ago but there is still time.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Not with a positively tilted trough
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I thought out west improved slightly
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    This has been brought up several times today by other posters including but not limited to chill and psu. you are slow to call bingo.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    These models are also precariously close to sliding off the coast and being a graze job. Hope this storm follows seasonal trends. Would make for quite a KU
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Getting a weird vibe here that spots that messed out yesterday cash in next weekend and vice versa ie southeastern zones in this sub
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Past storm was a different setup synoptically tho wasnt it? I am not hedging any bets regardless.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    In an fairness the window i was watching was 27-29, the clipper i thought would dive and bomb at the coast. Which it does but too late for any effects but that does become our 50/50 for the weekend, so there's that.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again. If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Thats a vertically stacked system at 6z or very close. Someone mentioned jan 25, 2000. I cant unsee it.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro AI:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro AI has been on fire at this range (4-6 days). I would lean towards that.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    That separation of 50/50 and better positioning of h5 ull is drool worthy. Nao ridge and pna arent too shabby either.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Eps for Feb 1:
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    7.8" snow/2.7" sleet 30.4" on the winter
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    I like that moisture near the TV associated with the closed ull. That would probably be a capture on the next frame and slp either stalling on the coast or drifting NNE.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    I did exactly that. Was making sure the sleet amount (2.7")is totaled 1:1 as snow (2.7"). Still sleeting and another batch still to roll thru later.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Coastal low finally took over. A little too late. 1005mb vs 1008mb in OV
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    So when we are adding sleet to our totals for the day, do you just measure the depth 1:1?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Who is staying up for the 0z euro?
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    I agree as we have already witnessed bigger longwave features adjust in shorter time.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Caution needed wrt glancing ahead at LR unicorn patterns, but this is sort of what im referring to. All 3 ens going into mid feb are loading up with a split out west, +pna, -Ao, -nao with the pattern setting up to flip/relax. When that nao flips to positive is a period of interest. In short, if next 10+ days are dry and cold, I have a good feeling we arent quite finished yet.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho.
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