Ralph Wiggum

Happy Thanksgiving to you turkeys! Early week systems looks meh for I95/fall line south and east. Maybe a brief start as frozen along that demarcation points SE. N and W should see their first accumulating snow and mixing event. Few more weeks for climo to favor areas SE of the city.

Now we have an amped up ~990mb tight to the coast. Preferred the weaker strung out wave we had been seeing tbh. That strength and track is going to torch BL for those areas right near the fall line. Congrats interior tho.

Still feel fall line s and e will have to wait for theirs. One gfs run doesn't change my thoughts.

Even with a demamp'd storm, notice how 'warm' it is. The writing is on the wall with this one. Flat flow we walk the tightrope, amped up it pumps in too much warmth. Fall line and east are toast. On to the Dec 6 system.

Its still too early in the season. We need a thread the needle this time of year which likely doesn't happen with this system.

All hail, the King! Welcome my liege!

Well that escalated quickly. Only ~5.5 days out for start of precip:

Who is creating a thread?

I very rarely bet against the Birds, but if the odds are screaming against them, I will. Let's just say, I too am enjoying my evening much better now.

Urging caution when going out beyond 180hrs in a Nina. But alas, majority here are already aware of this.

Welcome to Nina December reality.

I realize you are propagating out past this, but looking at the raw data presented here, I'll be damned if the Southwest US oriented trof doesn't seem like a recurring background state past several years.

This feels like Groundhogs Day.

Yep. 65F Christmas week is how we usually roll in Ninas round these here parts

Better than what he's usually full of

First flakes of the year in Telford. 38F

Pretty much agree with this. I'm not thinking any 'big' storms either unless we luck our way into something. You can already make out what this pattern may look like in general....screaming northern jet, shred factory to anything that tries to come North via the stj, sloppy or late phasing with systems scooting out to our South or blowing up too late favoring S and E in those particular situations. My general thoughts are coldish/unsettled early part of the season thru the 3rd week of Dec, generally seasonal to AN most of the heart of winter with some short-lived bitter cold shots (single digits/teen highs)....in and out sorta thing. If we can time some convoluted blocking we could get something significant (8"+) but thats a roll of the dice and the exception, not the rule. Nickel and diming our way to ~18-20" here in my area. Then a cold and unsettled last 1/3 of Feb into early March.

Wooly caterpillars agree. Dozens around...short black head, long brown body, short black tail end. Cold start, seasonal/avg middle with a 'thaw', and cold tail end. If you believe that sort of thing. Would fit Nina climo as well.

Can we pull off a November 1987 redux?? Im going to say just enjoy it for this 1 run

Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls

Oh hell no, Im not dealing with this all winter. No patience.

Ahhh the Feb 89 debacle. Sophomore in high school. Schools shut down night prior in anticipation. Me and my buddy split a quarter of some good afghani bud. Started walking around the town 8AM. By 11AM we thought maybe we were both just really stoned but there wasnt a snowflake to be had and sun was poking thru. Stopped off for pizza at noon and the workers said we dodged one but the shore was getting hit. Mega pissed. We smoked the rest of our stash and enjoyed our day off, but it was still a huge letdown.

Beautiful Noreaster....sun is out in Telford, gentle breeze.....beautiful fall football weather

That was such a textbook Nina style rug pull leading up to this crud storm. Can't make this stuff up.

I have some ideas but not going to unleash them yet.