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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Gefs mean is around 6.5" imby. Thats pretty sweet.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Thank you for your prettier maps !
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS decent with a cluster west of the mean slp. Hold! Eta: qpf also increased se pa decent tick up
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC wants to give a nod to the gfs
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    You guys in DC land (and others) deserve this and I am fucking pulling for y'all. Not only a warning event but a HECS AND you finally might but a blip in the void of late feb no snow land. LFG
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Aaaaand the GFS holds serve. Wtf!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Seems like most guidance is honing in on a coastal hit for parts of DE and S NJ with lighter stuff N and W. Im sure we will have more wobbles but the general idea of extreme S Jersey being the jack zone seems pretty solid right now.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    We blame convective feedback. Weenie handbook chapter 6 section 2 titled "but the low should be closer to the coast shouldn't it?".
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Is a lottle more than a little? Like a 'lot' better?
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Fv3 at 60 isnt as diggy with the lead shortwave so the trailing one has more of a chance to catch it and phase.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    I was thinking that too. So.much separation between the waves heights actually rise in front of the trailing wave. I suppose that helps with the positive vorticity advection aspect but the full phase and capture is not on the 0z nam.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice confluence as well. Alot of little pieces coming together.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    This was before 18z his post
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    So what didnI miss today? Catch me up. Has there really been a complete cave to the gfs or are wi shield wipering to meet in the middle?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Hey I work 10hr days dude lol cut me some slack.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Follow the euro it is almost never wrong
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    I thought the gfs looked like a slight step.back tbh at 500mb
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny thing is, gfs keeps doubling down even slight improvements each run....but its not like other guidance is trending bigly the other way. There has been very slow/subtle shifts across other guidance even giving a slight nod to the GFS. I dont think the GFS is 100% accurate by any means, but a 6hr change in timing of the shortwave in question on other guidance and boom the GFS suddenly has legs. We'll see. Being a betting man Im putting the mortgage on the gfs being the outlier though.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe he's compensating for something?
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    How does the latest SPIRE look?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes.
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