Ralph Wiggum

Key features are displaced just enough that the systems are either just off the coast, squashed to the S, or like this weekend system during the brief relaxes in the cold flow. That's my take from analyzing the LR. We might benefit from returning to focusing under 240 in this pattern.

Split out West should continue with little to no Atl blocking. Not a big dog (that's my therapy dog btw) look but I could see us score overrunning chances coming from energy undercutting the SW moving across and thru the bottom of the PV flow. But trying to nail the NS down specifically and spot something in the LR probably.wont work for us. Going to be a waiting game most likely and picking up on something under 5 days.

You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore.

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges?

Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps.

ICON has a 1047 high near quebec at 108. Stronger depiction past few runs anyway.

When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks.

Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle?

I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip.

Run at 60 again next weekend?

If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week......

Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good:

Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.

Off hour run....toss it

Shhhhh, dont wake the weenies

I think next weekend had/has the attention of many because it is the first legit frozen threat after this torch weekend pattern and is also ushering in the change farther down the line. Albeit it's a mix look and pretty much always has been but frozen is frozen and better than 70 degrees.

NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.

Analyzing the GEFS moreso than the GFS. I dont put alot of stock in the op GFS until 5 days or less leads.

Getting that feeling we are going to continue to slowly move away from a big thump to mix situation and more thump quickly to sleet mix to rain usual areas with well inland holding onto frozen much longer. Typical progression with these storms. Better than where we are at today and tomorrow anyway.

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening:

Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N just off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter....thump to mix. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run.

Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240

Mentioned on another forum earlier that I can see this whole pattern evolution to a workable look actually be relatively short-lived. Transitioning from the Pac death blob ridge/SE ridge/-PNA (cutters) pattern to a HUGE epo ridge and no SE Ridge (cold/dry...think suppressed or off the coast). Could honestly see Jan 18-25 being the window between patterns that could produce. Now of course this is assuming we go where I mentioned. Been skeptical of locking in to something favorable for a while and mentioned before these 'windows' could end up being our real chances. Even if so, we could still reach climo averages so Im not poo pooing on where we are headed. Guess I'm exercising cautious optimism as it is so hard to get sustained favorable patterns and we should take our threats one by one and savor.

Anyone else licking their chops at the tail end of that run?? Plenty of chances ahead. Would be happy cashing in on just 1 half decent warning criteria event. Is that asking too much?