Ralph Wiggum

We fail

we abscond

From www.ecmwf.int for those who want some background to the euro op and control differences: "For the medium-range forecasts an ensemble of 52 individual ensemble members are created twice a day. One member is at a higher spatial resolution than the other members (called the HRES at ECMWF), its initial state is the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and it uses the currently best description of the model physics. The HRES provides a highly detailed description of future weather and averaged over many forecasts it is the most accurate forecast for a certain period, which is currently estimated as 10 days for large scale properties of the atmosphere. However for any particular forecast it may not be the most skilful member of the ensemble. Also when viewed in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence. Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied. The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence. The CNTL and perturbed members are continued beyond fifteen days at a reduced horizontal resolution."

Jan 15 has always been the date many have pointed to as the 'norm' el Nino December meh pattern into winter flip date. GEFS now has the change within 8 days tho likely rushing it. EPS are closer to the Jan 15 but not stuck out in time any longer either.

We have a nao now and we are in a shitout pattern Ha I see what u did there

Randy, can I tell him? Please?

Again, not getting too far out like mid month, but important changes consistently showing now within around 10 days. One important feature I've been watching is the ridge N of HI finally breaking down. Actually takes an interesting progression and moves into the EPO area building heights there like a flip of a switch. This scenario has repeatedly been hinted at and while still a long way out is now within about 10 day which is *fairly* reasonable for key pattern features being shown.

See u guys shortly to analyze the 384 hr GEFS btw

I'm personally going to try and ease up on looking for unicorns and epic near-perfect patterns to lock-in at 14 day lead times + and instead am in 10 day and under mode for the time being. If we can start getting true workable patterns to show themselves in the shorter range and actually verify I'll worry about duration after the fact. We should probably shift focus to getting whatever we can then hope it can establish or repeat afterward. Dont we always say get the cold air in first then worry about storms second? Signs on more guidance than not that we will start seeing some decent negative temp anomalies coming sooner than some may realize.

Finally some arctic cold under 240 hrs lol

Knew it was coming thanks

Again probably wrong in rushing it in this fast but like I keep hitting on the flip may very well be a sneak attack on us. So many folks are looking out towards Jan 20+ and worrying about details at that range leading up yet missing many important aspects in the medium range which could cause a flip like a light switch and a surprise (short range lead time) storm to usher things in. We'll see but I am about as optimistic that 'its happening ' than I've been in a while. Eta: Cue Bob chill to find some index and map to crush my spirit

18z GFS continues to advertise the big time pattern flip....very cold and wintry after Jan 9....maybe showing up too fast but it's coming like a freight train. The fun op fantasy runs we said would start right after the flip of the calendar year are starting to show guys.

?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine.

GFS op is a thing of beauty up top. If only.

GFS op (FWIW which might not be much) has basically a neg -NAO entire run keeps on rebuilding it. -ao off and on. Flattened ridge n of HI. Ridge bridge towards end. Really good look. Awaiting GEFS.

GEFS continue to head towards a much better pattern towards mid month. The ridge N of HI is completely gone, Aleutian low is there, epo ridge, pos pna, split flow out west with energy undercutting, neg AO, and neg NAO. The best part is, the better looks continue to get closer in time and improve later in the run so we arent chasing a day 16 pattern change any longer. Positive adjustments are now showing in 9-11 day range. Yeah I know that is still a way out but to see it nearer in time and not stuck just at day 16 is huge. GEPS are right there with it. EPS are in la la land.....or going to score a huge win tho they are even slowly caving it appears towards the end of their range . Would be lying if I said I didnt like what we are seeing right now. Panic room is probably going to be a barren wasteland in a couple weeks.

I have had wooden snowman decoration measuring stick thing that goes in the ground. I dont put it out often because I have had it 7 years and it has NEVER snowed at any point that it has been out and in the ground. It is currently outside on display. I will be removing it Friday with the rest of the decor so you can expect a better pattern shortly after.

Fwiw overnight GEFS still consistent in advertising a much batter pattern with more favorable PAC look and HL blocking towards mid month. GEPS took a move towards the GEFS and relatively similar with key features. EPS finally started to budge at the end of the run just a few days later. These are all positives and we are on schedule believe it or not still for what many have been advertising irt mid month pattern changes to a more wintry look.

Happy prosperous healthy and snowy New Year everyone!

Ha! Big change imo for the good. Takeaway for me is it actually tries to get there finally for a change. As u said just a little later. Maybe the age-old bias of the euro camp holding things back a few days longer in the West and PAC? Or has that been fixed? In any event a small budge towards the GEFS. The GEPS are now on the GEFS side as well with key teleconnections. Positive way to start 2019.....we can always have hope! Happy healthy and snowy New Year everyone!

N HI ridge gone.

Good post. I posted essentially the same ideas in the mid atl thread a few hours ago. GEFS have been consistently pointing to mid January as well as the Euro weeklies. For whatever reason the eps have been against the change or severely delaying that good look. Could be right but for the reasons I mentioned over there and which you echo here I am very optimistic it is on it's way in a couple of weeks. Heck we could even possibly score something as we are still in this crud pattern but taking steps up. Frustrating yes. But it's not like Dec and part of January being punted wasnt expected during this Nino.

Daughter triplets?