Ralph Wiggum

Possibly tho not convincingly. Been cautioning folks looking too far ahead and missing positive changes in the mid range right under our noses.

My lilac bush has buds already which is just crazy. Not all over but some isolated branches clearly have buds. I just saw while taking down Christmas lights.

He mentions several 'baby vortexes'. Guess those daughter vortices have been busy and misbehaving under daddy PVs nose.

I feel an 'ALEET ALEET' in the not too distant future.

Going almost directly and that quickly from a phase 8 weak 1 straight back to a 4 would likely spell a major event as the transition happens IF we get the cold and IF it hangs around long enough. Obviously could score before then too but am I completely wrong in my assessment? Sort similar to an Archabault where the neg NAO transitions to a pos NAO and we tend to get hit? What would such a direct course from cold to warmish mean? Again i cant help but think something like that would yield a potential BIG ticket event somewhere in the East.

Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. I think I95 can write off the next 6 days or so for all intents and anything meaningful so in essence this is mid Jan thru mid Feb. Drool worthy. This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take.

I dont hate the Caps, I dont mind WV NCAAF, but you lost my respect with the Cowboys thing. We used to be cool man P.S. You havent seen uninspired lazy sloppy garbage until you've watched 5 minutes of the 2018-19 Flyers.

Let me know when the daughters are 18 please. This sort of thing isn't really suitably appropriate for me to be looking at. Is it ok to say they are developing nicely or is that just weird?

I posted something similar a few days ago when we were discussing things but became skeptical over the past 3 days that we would get there. Yes, there is a powder keg in the upper atmosphere and I think the fuse has been lit. There is a discussion about the SOI and its effects and a chicken vs egg type of discussion where I noted once the SOI tanks neg for 3 or 4 consecutive days it will start happening....that was/is my belief. Well, we are there. Good times ahead.

Overnight eps continue to show marked improvements moving forward and are now very much in line (if not ahead) of the weeklies progression towards a very favorable look as we approach mid month. PAC firehose is finally breaking down on all 3 major ens means and the looks up top irt epo NAO and ao look favorable as does the pna ridging out west. Obviously this decent look in the LR could still crap the bed but is beginning to move closer in time now finally. Unclear also what it all comes down to in regards to real weather here but with tellies lining up favorably should increase our chances for wintry weather as we move towards mid January and beyond. Now that we are back to seeing the light once again on guidance I completely expect guidance to start taking steps back at 12z

JB got his mojo back

I actually read an NCEP disco that mentioned the FV3 hasnt met expectations and has several key issues. They are planning a final release in late 2020 or early 2021. I dont recall if they are eliminating the primary release this month or not but they noted the gfs op was outperforming the fv3 in several case studies. Also unclear what role if any the govt shutdown will play as far as delays.

Yeah if there is a 180 degree reversal in late Jan and you/we end up at like 200% climo in a back loaded scenario after the start we endured...THAT is epic hands down. Eta: we could still epic fail as well. This is all just a tease still at this point.

I miss the NGM....we would wait on pins and needles for that and the ETA and AVN to roll in.

Ha....the one member with zilch. Probably the one to verify.

Lol control run. Yeah, really performing well as of late. That dang model has given me about 60" digital snow over the past 4 weeks.

Now the eps weeklies will cave to a crud solution as lead time shrinks....watch.

I'll pay good money for a 5 minute snow shower from a streamer coming down off of Lake Erie.

Is this what a hamster wheel feels like?

Most hugest run since 0z.

Not the surface looking at 500mb. You know better. I admire your sarcasm.

12Z FVC3PO is workable.

Stanley Cup for a triad of snow less winters please. We know that ain't happening for quite a while tho lol.

Im looking at the same time frame before punting any SUSTAINED wintry pattern. If mid month comes and nothing even remotely on the horizon I doubt we will see much in the form of anything favorable becoming sustained. Could still get some fluke snows as winter(?) winds down but again I am saying "sustained" wintry pattern. Give it til mid month. Many had a flip at that time into 6 weeks+ of sustained wintry weather. Fingers are crossed.

JB is blowing so much hot air it's overwhelming the pattern obviously.