Ralph Wiggum

So you're saying we're due?

Sooo much damage up here. Many roads closed tons of trees down. Looks like Sandy came thru again.

Same cell that ripped thru here (Warminster/Hartsville). Interested to see what guests were reported. Sounded more fierce than anything during Sandy.

Freight train just came thru here...it's breezy.

As you said, Mt Holly doesnt seem too enthused.

Scoured guidance irt another poster mentioning Thurs/Fri and the lack of interest from Mt Holly. I can see why it isnt being mentioned as a big deal. In general, autumn fropas dont make headlines around here unless accompanied by wind advisories or the rare autumnal severe weather.

What's Thursday and Friday?

New GFS needs to be banned this winter. That thing has been spitting out digital snow for weeks now. I can only imagine the nonsense we will see from it this winter.

Here's the 12z run just a few days later. Friends, we have officially entered fantasy/digital snow season:

When the GFS OP shows a workable setup (that would still need to work out perfectly), but the GEFS show a completely opposite setup, it should be fairly easy to decide which would be more likely especially given recent pattern trends and climatology:

Upgraded GFS just loves spitting out fantasy snowfall. This is the 3rd or 4th fantasy storm it has shown over the past few weeks and it isnt even Halloween yet. Going to make for an interesting inaugural season this winter lol:

This storm was when I lived in Southern Delco and we had more than the 30.7 the airport measured (which was 7 miles from my home). I remember walking in my unplowed cul de sac and the snow being in the mid part of my thigh....mind you I was/am 6'1". Was just an amazing event...my personal favorite of all-time.

Appears on all ensemble means the general teleconnection theme over the next 10+ days is -PNA with EPO ridge displaced West towards Gulf of Alaska. -NAO appears but remains transient and/or weakens relatively quickly. WAR continues to appear but rather than feeding and reinforcing an NAO ridge it splits much like last winter and feeds a flattish SE Ridge. Split flow remains over the Eastern Pacific with one stream displaced into AK and Western Canada and the other undercutting said ridging and riding thru SW US and old Mexico. Nothing too exciting and certainly not an indication of the coming winter pattern. Merely posting what the ens means are trying to show in general.

Go back on TT and watch models since midweek runs. Almost all had nary a drop of moisture affecting SE PA. Specifically, the GFS kept ticking NW almost every run since at least 0z last Thurs. I think that sort of trend would have many here jumping for joy in mid January if that track and trends occurred. As far as the NAM seems status quo to me....same stuff different storm. Ramps up totals 36 hours out...then backs down as you said just prior matching most other guidance. It may be a long winter but probably not for the reason you mentioned unless you ride the NAM religiously.

Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket.

Not sure I want to see this in Oct. Likely wont happen but snow in the metro in Oct is usually the kiss of death for the winter:

⬆️⬆️ this is what I am getting concerned about. Second time recently LR showed an excellent stormy regime in the East only to be replaced by a redeveloping WAR and trof out West. Like groundhog day....hopefully just leftovers from last winter and the trends/tendencies over NA progress into something else over the next several weeks.

1st image is euro ens....2nd image gfs ens....3rd image cmc ens. Warmish ridge in the east, any stormy regime out West or confined deep South. Maybe this will change, maybe not. Point isnt to troll DT or LC but LR forecasting is humbling as most of us saw last year:

Dear God if this were January and we were expecting a coastal with a track somewhat similar to what most guidance was showing yet we woke up to cloudless skies like today, I cant even imagine the mass cliff jumping. Btw, DT's epic monster Noreaster pattern for Oct 19th or whatever suddenly doesnt look so epic. We're not going to do this "let me be the first to spot a storm 3 weeks out" again this year I hope?

WAR keeps redeveloping on ens and has been an off and on feature all summer. Really hoping that feature isnt a recurring theme and a repeat of last year. Not saying it will be...just have a bad taste still from last winter so obviously watching for trends. Winter outlook is being worked on....will release by early Nov as always.

I see David is hunting unicorns earlier than normal this year lol.

December to remember incoming

Autumn of azz