Ralph Wiggum

Typical pattern change/reload/transition look. That is no doubt coming....most ens show this at least starting by day 10. Some bring the current looks back, some flip it.....certainly .mixed signals. Should have some idea about where Dec may head on or around Thanksgiving. I do like some of the recurring themes we have seen most of the fall. Doesnt mean they will hold as a background state this winter though. Lots to be answered.

6z GEFS looks good thru 240 still imo given calendar date. PAC looks to want to reload towards the end of that period. NAO ridging is evident both surface and 500mb with some hp ridging beginning to develop late in that period N of Alaska. Whether right or wrong looks like avg mid/late Nov weather to me at worst thru 240 with a balance of positives in both the Atl and Pac sides. If you want to sneak peek past that period which isnt usually the wisest thing, the 5-day averages on the GEFS increase AO ridging, still have signs of ridging in the NAO, squash the SE ridge that briefly flexed, and has BN 2m temps for the area. While some negatives appear briefly the general themes we have seen look to continue. I can certainly see a reload in the pattern for a short period but I also do not see anything earth shattering that says to cancel winter while it is still late autumn. If someone pressed me and said find something that could be of concern I would say we need to see how the ridge N of Hawaii plays out and what effect it might have on LP near the Aleutians. On the Atl side I would say lets see if the hint of a SE ridge links up as a full/mid lat ridge (like early Oct when we had record heat as the pattern reloaded) and/or how transient/stubborn that ridge becomes. Steady as she goes next 10 days.

Last I checked it was November 17....and still autumn.

Pattern next 10 days on all ens look decent to me with an NAO ridge closing off, broad US trof which yes is slowly repositioning farther west but the broad look works, closed piece of the PV N of the GL. I guess it is after day 10 that has people concerned but I wouldnt lose sleep over it in November.

Yeah didnt want to bring that up and cause a flood of ppl to the panic room. It isnt horrible we have most of the features we want minus the AO. But as you know the AO is usually an indicator of how wintry out weather will be here so let's just hope it's a relax. I didnt post it but the Strat is really wicked looking with that PV taking a pummeling and a warming signal over Siberia. That should translate down to some blockiness near the N pole in the trop one would think going way forward. That week of Thanksgiving will probably make or break many of the early/mid Dec outlooks depending whether it us a reload or a transition to the weeklies.

My takeaway for hours 180-240 on the 3 ens families was unanimous depiction of ridging over Greenland into the Bering Sea with a piece of the PV subsequently being pinched off in Eastern Canada. Kind of a flat ridge out West but better than a full lat trof as the split flow off the West Coast looks to continue. Only pause is more of a ridge near the Aluetians but that may be a transient feature....not sure. AO looks positive....neutral at best. EPO also has a neutral look. Some mixed signals on the development of a SE ridge among guidance. Difficult to look past that with much of a feel either way. That week definitely has the look of a transition or reload weak irt the overall pattern with the early/mid December pattern likely hinging on how that full week progresses.

What's a "gym"?

You know this but it isnt going to stay BN forever. It did take some big jumps in the medium range irt some of the key long wave features, so sometimes when we see such drastic 'blips' it can be considered a flawed run....not sure here. However, it plays the role of reload. I take 240+ with a grain of salt but if the medium range leading up to the LR is to be believed this run, it sets up a CPF towards the end with a massive EPO ridge pushing into the AO region. Same time the TPV is split and the SPV is undergoing what looks like a SSWE with that feature taking an absolute pounding and hints of a split at the strat level. Again, way out there but just trying to save you from the cliff and give you some positives to go along with your panic over 2m temps. It's only November....hang in there.

Yep, as expected Bering Sea well above normal past 3 months though recently not quote as anomalous. What strikes me is the global sst anomalies. Sheesh. In any event I found info showing AN ssts in the Bering Sea in general since 2016 (was BN for a good period prior). Cant really say there will be a correlation between the AN ssts there and any blocking because if past few years are any indication well....umm yeah lol. I do thing the QBO/PDO and solar min will having an impact on blocking patterns downstream this year over the NAO region.

Interesting: "the Bering sea data are lagged behind the SOI for up to 18 months. The correlations suggest that warming in the Bering Sea follows negative anomalies in the SOI (i.e., El Niño events). Cooling in the Bering Sea tends to follow positive anomalies (i.e., precursors of El Niños) in the SOI. Maximal correlations for the PNA also lag the SOI by a mouth or two. Analyses of variance indicate that the SOI can explain 30 — 40% of the variability in the Bering Sea. Stepwise multiple regressions can explain up to 54% of the variation in air temperatures, up to 39% of the variation in sea ice cover, and up to 46% of the variation in SST in the Bering Sea. PNA and SOI were significant variables only in the equation for air temperatures, indicating a close relationship between them and the atmosphere in the Bering Sea and suggesting that energy is transmitted to the water and ice via the atmosphere. " Source: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41144366?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

Great data! Was more questioning the similarities in the Bering Sea. I noticed there is an anomalous blob of +SD 2m temps that are stationary there on the GEFS the entire run. I wonder how/if that will affect ridging in that area. Eta: Bering Ses is a much smaller area so assuming that will freeze over quickly if not already. Just seems behind quite a bit also.

I like when you talk dirty....in a purely scientific kinda way!

I'll certainly take my chances with that look if it holds. I'm more watching how the flip to +NAO that the weeklies show continues to get pushed back. Like I said too this run the NAO is a hair stronger. Was hoping to just see it not continue to fade from - to + .... didnt expect a better look up there. Would still hope to see the AO work in our favor at some point but these seem to be good signs thru 10 days at least. Persistence. Like Chill said above, the NAO going - to + might favor something father N with no NS in play but tbh this look has potential. Climo going to be tough still but again for me it is all about 10 days and under along with seeing some persistence with certain features. It isnt even Dec yet and there are favorable pattern drivers to track. Cant really ask for much more at this point.

11/16 EPS 12z looks almost identical to 11/15 EPS 12z. If anything NAO ridge looks a hair stronger. Western ridge more evident with reinforcing arctic flow into broad Eastern US trof. Low height Eastern 2/3 of the country. I've seen worse looks in late Nov. ^^PV appears to be splitting as well with one center anchored N of Siberia and the other trying to pinch off around Hudson Bay. Yummy.

Dafuq is this?

^^Oh and trying not to look too far ahead but 2m temps in our regions are BN thru majority of the entire run.

Does anyone know if Baffin Bay is frozen over or not? I ask because looping the 2m temps on the 6z gefs I see an anomalous blob of warmth that is stationary there much like the blob over Chukchi Sea/Beaufort Sea North of AK which is unfrozen. I'm curious if this will have any effect on increased ridging in the area like that of which seem to be somewhat recurring N of AK in part of the EPO region.

CPC is backing down on the severe -ao/- nao it had been showing for several days. Ao, nao, and pna look neutral towards late Nov. Again, could be worse I suppose.

Was discussing in another forum how the Euro weeklies and seasonal stuff keeps throwing out a strong +NAO/+AO yet the EPS day 10 is completely disagreeing. After last year, I'm trying to mainly focus on Day 10 and under this year...which looks decent. I keep asking myself can such a decent fall pattern with blocking tendencies really hit a wall and flip on itself to such an extreme as the weeklies and seasonal depict? I suppose the answer is yes. However, last year the weeklies and seasonal were touting the epic unicorn of patterns and it never materialized. Could this be the opposite of last year? Lots of questions and we should see some answers over the next several weeks.

More interested in D1-D10 and nothing farther than that for now. At least trying lol. With that said EPS has a building -NAO and by day 10 looks decent. So unless the pattern collapses on itself, which it could in a few weeks, take what we can get for now.

18z gfs has a nice storm next Sunday

Man if we could get this look to stay all winter or something remotely close it would just be a matter of time. Anyone else see the 95-96 similarities in this flow?

I'm not psu but one factor I noted in my outlook was for a split flow off the Cali coast with trofs establishing in the SW at times. It is worth mentioning that I dont see that feature becoming a persistent full latitude feature. If anything I believe this helps aid in stj energy undercutting the ML ridge on the West coast and as it ejects east in pieces will provide SWF/gradient overrunning situations for us and more specifically the OV as it runs between the SE ridge which will appear periodically and NS 500mb trof over the GL/NE. That look has been showing up on the LR ens for a few runs but as you noted...la la land for now and nothing I would be too concerned with one way or the other right now. More interested in how the HL players line up going forward the next few weeks.

Didn't see this posted. NAM is pretty far NW irt other guidance. Probably the typical bias at this lead time but interesting to note nonetheless.

Cool to see such intense +SD verification of it on the 500mb ens that is stationary. Definitely not a feature you see everyday.