Ralph Wiggum

Gonna do some yard work in shorts this weekend. Thinking about running a tank of fuel and seafoam carb cleaner thru the snowblower. Ya know, get it ready and all. That should certainly not jinx anything moving forward.

@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16 That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.

EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.

Honestly, I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge

OP at range but the Pac death puke blob from Hades is displaced and waning by the end.

North American trof I think unless he like the look of a massive negative SD near the Eastern NAO.

Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere.

Ok

Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico:

I like how on the HH GFS op the monster Pac ridge bubble spawns an ULL out of nowhere lol:

Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool.

That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail.

The wheels appear to be in motion.

Better than "epic unicorns".

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth.

I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time.....

Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old.

I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that.