Ralph Wiggum

Rather active pattern moving forward the next 10 days with several impulses riding the NS and some active disturbances in the stj. Climo says still a little early to get overly optimistic but all the players are entering the field that we would want to see at this time moving towards late November. A few coastal systems and a few reinforcing shots of cold air (think clippers) next week to 10+ days. If this was 3 weeks later and this potential background state can hold, some happy people gonna be posting in here.

I think we might be seeing some early repeating signs of what the background state will be this winter. Not looking like a dud, I'm pretty sure many will agree with that. Still some mixed signals but honestly couldn't ask for what we are seeing at this point.

GFS has the strong vortex and shows alignment between trop and strat fwiw. Not the biggest fan of seeing the cold air locked up in Siberia but I'll roll the dice with marginal/borderline temps if it means storm chances vs arctic cold and dry as a bone. I know there can be an argument made for good storms on the backside of a retreating PV but not much we can do if it sets shop over on the other side of the N Hemi in early winter. Still TBD tho obviously. Split camps as you noted.

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all unanimously advertise a similar day 10 500mb pattern with BN temp regime and the late November "warmup" delayed yet again. Low heights near Aleutians, higher heights in the NAO region and NW coast/W Canada, BN heights Northeast US. Slowly gaining confidence that this is going to be a recurring theme this season. Still a few weeks early though confidence is growing that as we enter December we are going to be tracking.

Urging cautious optimism. Let us never forget the LR ens winter 2018-19. Agreed tho, if it holds then that's a solid look going forward.

I'm not upset with the 12z GEFS:

By 144 hrs an argument could be made that the SPV is being pinched and has 2 centers but the GFS ens seems to recover quickly so much so by 180 hours has one strong center anchoring near the Kara Sea while anti cyclonic flow strengthens over AK and W Canada. TPV remains banged up but the only negative takeaway I had this cycle was by 240 the TPV has consolidated (for the most part) near old Russia. Granted, the charts are more smoothed out the longer the lead time and this is the day 10 prog chart, so there's that.

38F Warminster with flurries

Strat PV continues to get knocked around like a flyweight in a heavyweight fight fwiw.

Random Monday morning musings: Another cold/chilly early/mid November morning. Historical data posted in other groups strongly correlates cold Novembers with BN temp DJF in our region (more + correlation farther N and W into PA, less S). Many records broken recently for low temps....shattered even. Tendencies for coastal development off the SE Coast recently and on future guidance. Likely a function of AN gulf stream SSTs and the strong baroclinicity between the colder than usual air mass over the land interacting with said SSTs. Pattern also speaks for itself with trof established over the E and SE. SPV continues to be bullied and pushed around with the TPV splitting and not being able to align/sync with 10hPa level. Seeing PV centers near Siberia, another N Hudson Bay region, and lobe over Europe. Ridge poking N thru Chukchi Sea and into Arctic Circle keeping -AO hopes alive going forward. Hints LR of -NAO re-emerging (continual blocky theme). Aleutian Low remains a feature. Split flow evident off West Coast with one jet into NW US/British Columbia Coast and another undercutting thru old Mexico and across into the SE US. This flat SE ridge is not a bad thing moving forward imo as the pattern reloads IF the N Atl and AO cooperate. As the PNA goes - at times this sets up a gradient flow into December with overrunning systems moving across potentially. That ridge should be a lift mechanism to push precip N. If the AO and NAO cooperate and keep the one PV center in a location to advect cold air into the Northeast, it will be a good Dec pattern coming up with SWF (southwest flow) events providing snow chances for the Northeast. Again, just some musings on this Monday. Not seeing anything too alarming. Was seeing some SE ridge pops on LR ens but again it seems to be balanced but the goings-on over the N Pole and N Atl HL blocking. That's of course if the general ideas hold. Bottom line, I'm certainly not disliking the look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload in 7-12 days but we can see the neg temp anomalies rebuilding across the Eastern US again after a moderation with the warmest temps into Canada. Not a CPF look (yet) BUT like seeing the neg temps reappearing. An old sage once said, when Canada is warm in December, the lower 48 is generally chilly/cold.

Glenn, have you released your winter outlook yet? If not, when should we look for it? Thanks.

Just to add, the SPV continues to take a beating with stresses on both the Atl and Pac sides. With that said, the TPV showing no signs of consolidating long range and continues to show displacement and fragmented look with 1 center in Siberia, one over N Hudson Bay, and a lobe extending over N Europe. Not expecting wall to wall winter weather and threats but all of these trends are certainly beginning to put me at ease irt any dud winter coming. Guess we see if these looks hold and continue repeating.

Liking where the ensembles are taking us towards the end of the month. These are not bad looks at all AND we seem to be seeing some repetition and trends irt the Aleutian Low, the constant beating down/pushback and any SE Ridge, split pattern off the West Coast with no true PAC firehose theme, and of course the AO continues to be in the negative. The 18 GFS op is interesting towards the end also with a true -NAO....but that's an op in fantasyland, but these teleconnections and tendencies could be a heck of alot worse:

18z NAM continues the theme...maybe a hair more precip hanging back along the wave as the CAA funnels thru. Dont like these setups irt hoping for accumulations ie fropa with a weak wave along it waiting for the cold air to change rain over. Looks like a continuation from last winter on the NAM with a C-2" type....leaning heavily towards the lesser amounts right now. First flakes/white rain looking likely for many in PA/Northern DE anyway.

Current temp is 18F in Warminster.

18z GEFS has BN 2m temps thru the entire 384 hr run for the area. At 500mb it also has a respectable look with the WAR/N Atl ridge repeatedly feeding the -AO and NAO region. Aleutian low persists with subsequent ridging along the West coast. All we can ask for at this time as things progress thru late fall. The progression and tendencies of the main teleconnections which affect our apparent weather during the winter month appear favorable for now anyway.

12th/13th 'event' has all the ear markings of a mid range threat in a relatively progressive pattern that ends up being one consolidated lo farther N than progged with just a fropa for many. Could be wrong but has alot of resemblance to several systems last winter that never materialized.

GEPS is flat, weak sauce, and far enough off the coast to essentially be a nonfactor

But the GGEM shifted S and E

If this were DJF many would be reading the signs and sticking a fork in this one. Whaddya think.....95% of the time we see this, these systems never trend back the right way?

The usual trends have begun....congrats New England and far interior lol. Joking of course but funny to see the jump from the bullseye SE of us now into NE.

GEFS and GEPS close to the coast. EPS oddly enough is the farthest SE and off the coast. Not a bad place to be. Would rather this be 3 or 4 weeks from not but this can definitely happen especially with a fresh cold arctic air intrusion as modeled.

Congrats on next week. Every medium range model has you getting measurable snow now. NJ in the crosshairs less than a week out. What could possibly go wrong?

Front comes thru Thursday maybe some flakes on the backside especially far NW zones. Potential still showing for something around the 12th/13th. Worth keeping an eye on anyway since it could provide the first flakes of the season for parts of the metro area. EpS has been solid on the signal. Lost the bomb that it was showing but overall has a nice look with energy rounding a trof in the East and a wave off the coast throwing back some moisture into a fresh cold air mass. GEFS is trending in the right direction. I am posting the mslp trends over the past 4 runs as well as the 500mb anomaly maps. Note the pna ridge firing out west with each run.

Depends on who you asked I guess.