Ralph Wiggum

Looks like the Sunday storm tries to setup in 50/50 for added support. Eta: meh transient

Once the WAR gets out of the way.

Sunday system 12z gfs has lp over Pittsburgh....that's not gonna work. Thump quickly to rain verbatim

Regarding Thursday night so far all 12z has come in colder. Not any heavier with qpf but we take what we can get in what Redsky has dubbed 'the winter of azz'.

Until I actually see the sustained neg NAO and other modeled teleconnections actually verify I will always have doubts I guess. LR has been slightly better recently but bad taste in my mouth still from 6 weeks ago or so. Cautiously optimistic is my mantra this year as well as seeing is believing. Models can be as persistent as they want but doesnt always mean they are right. One of the fears I've mentioned on here quite a bit recently is that when/if this nao flip happens we go dry as the stj quiets down. There are for the first time signs of this happening now via the euro family of LR guidance. Trying to stick mid range but hard not to look LR in this hobby as well. Again....cautious optimism. I would much rather have the modeled looks in the LR than have a total puke PAC and N Atl with progressive torch.

I just lost my breakfast even thinking about that lol

What'd I miss ?

Thursday night looks like light snow to start especially NW of the Del River. It may transition over to plain rain especially South of the PA turnpike tho most guidance is tracking the slp farther to our South each run which if that trend continues would bode well for more frozen than wet. Generally looks like a C-2"/1-3" type of system. If we can get this to strengthen and migrate near the 50/50 spot that would be beneficial for the Sunday event which right now favors rain to frozen.

Hopefully these looks moving ahead stick and key features migrate to where they are being progged and have some lasting power not just a week and done. Tho at this point I will take what we get. Btw is it odd that you guys got your best snows (general DC area) with a pos nao as opposed to the rebounding neg transition to pos back in Nov? That nov nao flip (archambault?) is traditionally when we score more often than during a sustained pos nao no?

Sure there is no doubt. But I have been wrong up til just recently because it all but completely vanished or was at least put on the back burner with all the mjo and ssw talk. Let's look forward and hope the weeklies et al verify and never look back. Dec and most of Jan til recently blew chunks. Cautiously optimistic here still.

@psuhoffman I'm just taking a different approach than you I guess. With everything looking like rainbows and unicorns on the horizon I always see that setting people, myself included, up for heartbreak. Believe me I'm not trying to be a Deb by any means....but I'm alternatively trying to see features which might throw a wrench into things. Guidance can argue for one thing, you and I can debate another, but when all is said and done all of us could be incorrect because the weather does what the weather wants. Let's continue the discussion tho...I enjoy being in here sharing various viewpoints. There should not be anything wrong with that.

Because the WAR is a huge player right now and one of the key if not primary catalyst in driving the upcoming epic pattern looks as it is 'supposed' to migrate into the NAO region. Historically yes it does do that. But I am drawing on autumn because when it was progged to migrate at that time it did not it flattened and headed across the Atlantic. That's why I am 'on this war thing' as you put it. You are arguing a pattern change yet you are neglecting to talk about one of the key drivers then tossing any historical movement of that feature we've seen over the past 6 months. You cant cherry pick like that. With that said I do believe we see it move into the NAO because climo-wise this is historically the time of year which favors that progression of the pattern. I'm sorry I brought it up....I thought it was relevant to the pattern discussion.

You out then bruh?

So what is worst case scenario here? The Tpv goes against overwhelming data support and somehow meanders or wobbles into the nao region? I know that is an historically low area for a tpv TJ migrate to but just asking. Other worst case suppression city with cold cold cold but generally dry until things 'relax'?

Sorry maybe I was reading between the lines too much. I went back thru this post and did see where u made a call that you favor the epic look producing white for us and probably a good amt. Didnt have coffee when I read it first. Just saw a bunch of analog data and how they were essentially mixed with 1/3 saying something 1/3 something else and the other 1/3 another. Should have read deeper. My bad man.

Well it's an op so theres that....grain of salt. What hurts is seeing that war starting become more recurring like we saw back a few months ago. That thing was progged to migrate into nao territory but kept failing things up. As long as the overwhelming data is right this time it will move into the nao and overwhelm the east with cold.

So in summary there is a pattern change coming with some epic teleconnection looks that could possibly produce but possibly fail and the best shot at cashing in may have been pre pattern change (the one u just had on sunday) and later when the pattern breaks down which is a long ways out? Hopefully if we go cold and dry we can break some some records irt the temps.

0z NAM is colder for Thursday into Friday and yields a decent little snowfall for most of us...all snow for most NW of the Del River:

Does Wxsim have an algorithm for a kitchen sink because that seems like the only thing lacking?

The WAR has been a feature since Sept. I noted it in my winter outlook and didnt like seeing it continually show up right when the nao was supposed to dip. What makes it different now that several people are expecting the WAR seasonal tendency to change on a dime?

But these cutters are setting the stage for the real pattern change coming in Feb. Delayed but not denied. Besides the ens and weeklies say hold tight and we know even with agreement that those are never wrong.

Maybe the cutters can setup the storm behind that which subsequently sets up the storm behind which lays the foundation for the system following allowing the baroclinic zone to establish itself for the one behind that. One of them should work

And CMC looks like an extreme cutter lol

Here is the ao jawn....looks good. And yes, I said jawn:

But note the positively or neutral tilted trof downstream. Seems to imply less of an amplifying system ie full blown cutter so the farther w pna ridge vs pos/neutral trof could be a wash which is not a bad thing. Would rather take my chances with that sort of setup tbh.