Ralph Wiggum

I try and add substance to the disco here and yeah the phl forum is dead. I dont troll the main threads like folks do from say the NYC forum. Every time CAPE make a reply to me, he always makes sure to throw in a jab or some one liner. It is what it is but seems unnecessary. I thought taking it to banter was the right choice.

I've been only keying on day 10 and under irt patterns and real weather. Only looking at 'fantasy' range for fun this season. With that said, 8 days ago part of the PV was progged to drop into Ov and spill into the MA and NE. Now instead of -17 2m departures we are looking at -3 in spots. Wed/Thurs. Big diffs showing again inside of 10 days. Here is Day 9...doesnt look mild and again....could change or moderate but these bad looks and West Coast trofs continue to get muted as lead times lessen or have been transient. Pattern reload out West will happen....inevitable. Key is 'reload' based off of the background state setting up and the flow/pattern repitionwehave generally seen for the past 6 or 7 weeks. And even a -PNA can produce. If the AO and NAO can look remotely like this, we can play the balancing act game.

I only pay attention to the people who post substance in the main threads. You must have gotten lost in the mix.

Well, the bad looks and meh patterns have been short-lived essentially since October. So you probably have a general idea of where I'm leaning.

Sort of like last year? Repeatedly day 10+ epic pattern that never materialized which half the time was a 180 of what was shown day 12 onward. Like Bob said, nobody knows.

Apparently the old sages have punted December claiming PAC firehose and long recovery period. Not sure I completely agree with the AO poised to tank, ridging developing over Greenland, and 50/50 lows popping up as we enter winter climo but I guess the PAC runs the show anymore in this new climate.

Merry Christmas fantasy range tease

I'm off to work but the NAM (ugh) has a slower trailing wave and more overrunning in a WSW-ENE trajectory than 6z.

Just switched 'much' to 'part'. Forgot how widespread this sub is, sorry.

NAM giving some areas a NAMing. Should we surprised? Better surface reflection and good swath of overrunning for part of the forum.

Definitely more of a W-E orientation on the NAM 12z vs 6z. Hanging more energy back over TX too. Follow up wave to the follow up wave?

Most models are now showing a wave of low pressure riding up along a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wont be a prolific snowmaker but could lay down some light accumulations in spots and impact AM rush on Wednesday.

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

My condolences...very sorry for your loss.

Balancing acts and needle threading generally dont work out for us. Holding expectations low with this....very low.

These snow depth maps have actually verified ok in the past. I would lean towards this tbh. Eta: has the DC-philly-NYC snowhole so more likely to verify

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

How predictable is this Scandinavian Ridge moving into the NAO region? Is it a lock when you see it ie the progression? With that said, we probably shouldn't start popping champagne bottles until that look is inside 7 or 8 days. We did this last year chasing the NAO at range with unanimous agreement at times. Exercise caution imo until lead time lessens. This year does have a different feel/vibe anyway.

GEPS has the Aleutian Low anchored as well....doesnt budge entire run. We take.

Sacrificing the big storm next weekend for a cutter is what we do best. It sets the pattern for the follow up storm. In this pattern the way the PAC looks, a cutter is perfectly acceptable.

I wouldnt be surprised but I hope they dont win it. They will be blown out in the first playoff game.

From what I've seen, most of the posters in here are Ravens fans more so than Redskins no? Anyway, amazing how poor the NFC East is. Technically the Skins are still in the hunt for the Division at 3-9. Unreal.

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently.

With such hits as: "Piece Left Behind" "Sheared Apart" "Jets Streaks" and the classic "This Is the One: The Ballad of Ji"

Same here. Overwhelmed with holiday deliveries and the Monday snow event up that way will do it.