Ralph Wiggum

And in proper fashion the Flyers dominate with a 4-1 win. How sad for Oskar Lindblom tho. So young. Cancer just doesnt discriminate. Prayers for a full recovery.

Hrrr is in for SE PA squalls. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening could be fun....short-lived but fun.

I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.

3k NAM jumped on board

Mesos still looking good for some snow squalls tomorrow evening as a trof swings thru the region. Northern areas favored. Any of those could drop a quick localized c-1"

Eagles-Cowboys game in Philly could be alot of fun with the entire season riding on it for both teams

cheers!!

You may very well be right. Like you said 50/50. I'm just playing devil's advocate with you. Your glass is half empty mine is half full. Just keeping discussion open and both of us are presenting different sides.

Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw.

There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an east coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks.

Ok signal for some sort of a coastal storm at this range

Likewise Paul

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging.

Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general.

Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold.

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.

Merry Christmas fantasy range tease

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently.

Same here. Overwhelmed with holiday deliveries and the Monday snow event up that way will do it.

Still eyeing the window centered around the 14th give or take 2 days either side for our next potential threat. Tellies in the PAC and AO regions are favorable...Atl side is meh but workable. Stj gets active and now the ops are beginning to show some specific systems in the time. PV sideswipes the region with moisture trying to attack the CAD that has been established. To phase or not to phase and timing/temp issues obviously. Way out there but something to watch as ens and now ops beginning to wake up. Here's the 6z GFS take. Mind you the euro is amped in Ohio so keep expectations in check for now. GfS has that same OV low. Without a true N Atl/Greenland block this setup is going to be difficult to force the slp off the coast. Favors more of a CAD to start thump to mix/rain scenario.

Picked up one tenth of an inch of snow this morning.

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful. Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power.

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op.