Ralph Wiggum

Dafuq is Quansa?

There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.

Looks like the pattern from others storms...ns/ss separation, positively tilted trof, kicker keeping things progressive....slide slide slippidy slide

In 2 days the hope will return if not sooner. 'Workable' looks will start to show for 2 days. Then flip back to despair. Wash rinse repeat. Seems like a pattern where something will sneak in under the radar and the LR flops will continue.

And right on cue GEFS flip the PV from Alaska over to Hudson Bay and a more workable look overall. Euro has a coastal storm NYE that just misses us. I'm telling ya, the 2 day rule....flips and flops. In this setup is when a storm sneaks in under 4 days is how we get our snow. Roller coaster ride ftmfw

The background state 50/50 that we had for weeks is fading as well on the ens LR. When it rains it pours, pun intended.

I saw that too. Looks like a period of unfavorable tellies are projected. Cant always count on anything past day 10 tho. Some of the other subs have already begun cancelling winter. Not even Christmas yet lol. Eta: seems like we are on a 2 day cycle where for 2 days the extended looks bitterly cold and wintry with good tellies then for 2 days the extended is for torchy and no winter in sight. I dont think these forecasts can be counted on. We are in for a wild ride with swings all over the place is how I am seeing it and as recent history shows later in the season is probably when we have out best setups.

So the CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter and now this? People are correct when they say expect the complete opposite of what that model shows I suppose.

3rd week of March will rock!

'Variablility' is a good word on where we are headed imho. Back in mid Nov when many of us were discussing the winter possibilities most of us noted that there was nothing that made the forecast lean one way or the other. We talked about lots of conflicting signals and one of the more challenging seasonal forecasts in quite some time because there were no concrete factors that were swaying to one side or the other. And this is precisely what we are seeing. HL blocking is there as several felt it would be BUT it continues to shuffle around between the EPO region, AO, and NAO regions respectively. Weaknesses in the 50/50 region have been welcome, but will that last? Split flow out West continues to emerge at times. But most of these pattern features have failed thus far to work in tandem and form any sort of predictable recurring patterns that we are accustomed to seeing some years. Im not sure anyone can confidently say they can read what the pattern or a specific tellie is going to do past 8 days where we are now this season based on recent history of A+B+C=D. I do not exclude myself from this. This is a setup where certain features are transient and throwing fits into how those features interact in the long wave pattern. This isnt a knock on anyone at all. Trying to put the pieces together is why we are here and how we learn. My thoughts are that by the end of this season were are going to look back and say "what an unpredictably wild ride....there is alot to be learned from winter 2019-2020".

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster. Blast of cold, moderation and yes even torch, cold/dry, warm/wet, clippers, and even a KU coastal before winter is out. I dont think we are going to lock into one particular pattern that just keeps repeating....maybe 7-10 day fluxes. If guidance being all over the board isnt screaming 'chaos' or 'topsy turvy' with unpredictable changes and swings as we head into the heart of winter, then I'm not sure what does.

Never said it was good. Just said nice. Nice patterns dont always equal snow. Very nice in that it is workable unlike the looks we were getting 72 hours ago . My thought looking at that is that there is an active stj coming out of the SW Cali coast. There is a 50/50, a ridge in the Eastern nao region, ridge building off the NW coast with the PV downstream trying to meander SSE between the west coast ridge and the ridge in E Canada.

Very nice

The euro at the end of the run looks a little like 0z GGEM with the NS energy zipping thru ushering in the CAA and a piece of stj energy hanging back. Obviously is a day slower than the GGEM thus the slower evolution. Might be setting up something for right around NYE.

Not tons of support for it but worth mentioning the period around Dec 30 when the pattern transition is underway has some potential. GFS showed it, Euro hinted at it (both trended towards phase in Plains=cutter), and now the GGEM is showing the northern jet steamrolling thru and leaving a stj sw behind that forms a slp and comes N. Verbatim the 850 low rides under us and is textbook track:

0z GGEM has the scenario I mentioned with the arctic jet racing out ahead and the left behind stj sw developing and coming N. GFS/Euro ops phase in the Plains=cutter. Maybe a period to keep an eye on.

We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change.

HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah.

Much prefer glancing cold shots over the PV diving into the OV. Later in mid Feb to late March that is fine, but often times all that accomplishes this time of year is to suppress the storm track and be dry and frigid cold. Also tends to moderate then have to reload the cold. You can argue that on the backside of a PV visit we can get a storm but more times than not we are looking at stale cold and a thump to blech situation. Not that I would kick any snow to the curb....just prefer the consistent glancing cold waves over one singular polar plunge.

Latest ens means 500mb pattern all in agreement now that the PAC puke pattern will be brief and a return to a favorable Atl then subsequently the PAC which (hopefully) will follow all begins to shift within 7-10 days. I apologize for the piss-poor artwork but key points here are the return and repeating of the Aleutian low and 50/50 low (red circles). Lower pressures in the stj with steering currents marked in black below ridging in Southern Canada. Magenta arrows showing ridging in the N Atl repeatedly moving into Scandinavia then back into the NAO region and in the West the looks of the EPO ridge trying to start rebuilding. If this background state reestablished we should also see a return to the split flow out West which we have seen more often than not since late October. Pac is ok, none of it is perfect or epic. But this overall look as we finish out the holidays is a nice step in the right direction if you are a fan of winter.

What a difference a day makes.

Good chance that period does in fact materialize. However looks like the euro has 2 potential threats leading up to that. Again....enjoy the relax/reload next 7 days or so.

Enjoy this relax/reload period for the next week to 10 days. Enjoy the holidays...family...the seasonal weather. Busy times ahead as the New Year approaches.

Just need this to hold for 16 days and we are good... What could possibly go wrong?