Ralph Wiggum

I don't even think there is a remaining ens member with that scenario. You should have been here a few days ago when it looked unimous irt phasing.

That's an epic pattern.....for the Gulf Coast. So there's that.

The JB theory. Yes I have seen that work at times. And dont forget the Wiggum Rule....60 degree temps in SE PA Jan 7-feb 14 yields some form of snow within 5 days 94% of the time. Can we do it?

Yep just like the casino analogy. You can play the high roller slots (sswe) all day long and never hit the jackpot but theoretically you can play the nickel slots and hit that same jackot in 5 minutes. It is random luck imo (sswe) was my point.

Yeah I know. I was just thinking outside the box. Traditional thinking and modeling isnt really getting us anywhere so heck, why not?

Sswe and subsequent resultant effects that prove favorable for us is like playing the high rollers slots. Play big to potentially win big. Hits are few and far between but a random jackpot will spin up that cant be predicted. Odds of winning are lower but the cashout can potentially be extremely good.

I dont think we are going to see the traditional look of a war feeding the nao. Instead maybe we should look out West to the EPO thumb ridge and hope somehow a piece can break off and head into the western nao region? I know that isn't a typical progression but who knows? Is that sort of epo progression rare or 'unpossible'? I'm thinking if we cant win on the ATL side maybe we can look for something crazy to happen at HL out West. Grasping for straws but something's gotta give.

I wonder if Paul (Chesco) still thinks we are headed for relentless vodka cold and snow on snow. Havent seen him posting in a while. Would like to hear why he thinks this is still likely based on the pattern and not because JB said so.

Does the pv ooze east or does it dip and head back n? 12 days ago ens were spitting out insane cold for the period centered around Jan 27 give or take a day. Mean 2m temp anomalies were consistently 10-15 BN. Now look at that period. 27th is actually ~10AN. That's quite a reversal. It gets seasonally cold behind the fropa early next week but nothing like what was being depicted before.

Any idea of a sustained long term cold and snowy pattern appears to be over. Might we still cash in on a late season SECS/MECS? Of course. But the WAR is relentless and the ATL just doesnt want to work in our favor this season. There are even signs now that the WAR tries to move into the NAO but doesnt setup there....instead it forms a full latitude ridge with the SE ridge in the E. That would essentially spell an early end to winter if that verified. Polar opposite of what the LR stuff had been showing for a while. There is no sugarcoating it. Next week or so there are chances for minor stuff then PAC breaks down and who knows where we go from there? Losing faith quickly. I'm not sure how some of you guys can remain optimistic for a sustained winter pattern thru Feb still? I'm just not seeing it.

Am I reading the ens wrong for next week? Instead of the tpv paying the Northeast US a visit like originally progged it is now going to dive into the Plains pumping heights downstream in our area = AN temps? That is one heck of a turn of events if it verifies. Went from 20 degrees+ BN means to 10 degrees AN means on some guidance.

While u r correct it is active, the 6z GFS is a 50 shades of fail run and has almost every conceivable scenario thru the run in which could possibly just miss out on all the action. Eventually you would think one wave will break for us.

I was looking at the wrong graph. My apologies. Yeah pretty decent call thus far.

You sure about that? He called for a +NAO. Starting Dec 1 thru Jan 1 NAO was essentially negative or neutral certainly not positive. Then it went neutral to slight positive Jan 1 thru Jan 14 and has really only been legit positive for about a week now. I didnt see the rest of the guy's outlook but based on the 2nd post it was based solely on a +NAO all winter which we just began seeing about 7-10 days ago.

Are u guys in a parallel universe somewhere where the day 10 ops have even been remotely close to verifying?

And dont forget.....enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right?

Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go.

GFS verification scores are in the toilet. Ignore that family of guidance for a bit. Euro and ukie leading the way. Hug the EPS etc for now.

By the looks of the pattern next Sun-Mon is another needle threader. Either gets squashed by the PV or if phased lots of warm air aloft being punched in. A week out so this is just cloud talk and conjecture obviously. We can certainly score but I think we do better after the pv starts to pull back just after that period. Certainly intriguing seeing some very deep lows along the GOM and SE and mid Atl coast on models this time of the year. Keeping expectations in check for now.

6F here....wonder how much lower we could have gone with more ideal radiational cooling conditions ie no wind?

Congrats Northern Gulf of Mexico...nice signal for a deep storm tho across the board. Plenty of time to screw this up.

Chuck? Who hacked your account and is posting relevant info?

Yep. And the weeklies are strengthening the WAR and not allowing it to keep feeding the NAO. So we went from 'epic' to a PAC puke redux and no NAO. I am not buying it yet even tho it does have some legs. The LR has been a crapshoot this year tbh so who knows. I will say this....if some of these new looks verify it is going to be not only unfavorable pattern but very likely an early end to winter tho we can debate whether it truly began or not. Hopefully that PV doesnt consolidate and head over to Siberia like we are starting to see hints of. Meh maybe an early finish to this dreadful season wouldnt be bad. In any event too much LR discussion from me as it has been unreliable. We do have some threats showing up over the next 10 days anyway so we can track those and remain hopeful with fingers crossed.

With official stats sleet is snow? NWS acknowledges this? So theoretically if we had 100" of sleet some winter without a single flake that would be considered the snowiest season on record? .4" snow final Warminster