Ralph Wiggum

Towards the end of the GEFS way out in fantasy land the W displaced EPO ridge is trying to build and nose closer to the AO region fwiw. Not the Atl side you mentioned but maybe a needle in a haystack positive coming out of that Pac ridge anyway.

We had classes cancelled just SW of Philly and were forecast 4-8" or 5-10" and got zilch....not a flurry, not a drop of rain. That was a tough pill to swallow...thanks for bringing it up lol.

Not to derail the thread, but can you explain NAM or provide some reading/links for study? This is one that I have limited experience with. Thanks.

P003 plz

Not horrible:

I didnt have a chance to go back thru the thread....so I apologize if discussed already. I did see the euro weeklies but nobody mentioned the CFS new weeklies that I saw. Jan 20-27 BN temps and AN precip. Then much BN temps but dry into mid Feb. Better than doom gloom torch puke talk anyway.

If things degrade enough going forward they have to reach rock bottom at some point and start heading favorable. It might be June but heck let's root for rock bottom sooner than later. Ens means toward the end say we are close.

You might be on to something. You should do independent research and write a thesis. Who knows....Nobel peace prize??

I'm with PSU....give it till mid January before kicking to the curb. But the looks of things honestly, we are going to be hanging all hope on the final 1/3 of the season when things get convoluted. There is nothing wrong with that scenario either. Still feel a larger storm is in the cards. Might be 2016 redux one and done....who knows.

Happy New Year @Ji

Not surprised the Euro and GFS went cutter with the Jan 7ish window. CMC is still south but my guess is will trend cutter as well once lead time shrinks. PNA not timed right and se ridge flexes wrong time.

St Patrick's Day and Easter will rock! That is, if the progression happens as some are suggesting. Grass is shooting up here past few days and weeds sprouting. Might be time for the mower and weedwhacker.

Would be nice to track some 60 degree temps too over the next 6 weeks or so for some Wiggum snows. 93% success rate when the temp hits 60 in Doylestown between waning days of Dec thru Valentines Day we see some snow within the next 5 days following. This pattern is boring quite honestly. I thought the Pac puke pattern would be transient and the Jan 6 period would be the end of it. Looks like I am going to fail on the transient look as signs point to the puke redeveloping with the central Pac ridge anchoring and driving things downstream. But who knows really? These same ens did this last year in the LR promising an epic pattern only to keep it 2 weeks away until March.

Just to add to this and I am by no means an expert on the solar min or the QBO but in the small amount of research and reading on the subject, there is generally a lag time. So while the chart.you posted may in fact fit the look after solar min, keep in mind we arent forecast to arrive there until April-ish which if you factor in lag time makes that map more probable for winter 20-21 and not the current season. Right now we need to start seeing blocking in the NAO and AO regions to counter that massive central Pac ridge which is driving the pattern downstream into the US. A west coast trof / -pna with a developing SE ridge and no ao/nao help is one of the worst looks we can get. Let's hope in a few weeks things start to progress.

If you loop the ens means that central Pac ridge looks like the storm on Jupiter. It never moves.

That looks almost nothing like the pattern rolling forward on the ens means. Huge Pac ridge N of Hawaii is the dealbreaker. We can still get lucky and back into some snow as prime climo nears, but if the means looks hold, we will be struggling to see any 'sustained' wintry patterns. Like I mentioned a while back, likely a roller coaster/topsy turvy winter with no real sustained + or - but somehow we will end up around avg or just above in snowfall by the end of the season.

Quick, someone post a few clown maps to lighten the mood in here.

Most depressing run of the year. The se ridge looks immovable and the nao is super positive January thaw after our MECS

Like the GEPS ?

Ooops....taking the walk of shame off into the horizon......

@Ji This is not a suppressed look. Unless you meant for NYC :

While likely partially out to lunch, the ICON is rolling the ridge East in lieu of the amplifying -PNA. I'll save surface extrapolation for the die hards

SE Ridge will increase as lead times shrink as has been common with the -PNA at 8+ day leads or the cold push/trof wont be quite as pronounced. As lead times shrink we will probably see a track close to the coast at around 5 day leads. Like I said "I doubt we get an amped up storm" and we should hope not. As it looks now, plenty of wiggle room, right? I agree with your analysis of the current looks. But as we get within 84 hours we are going to be concerned about a cutter and hoping for a more sheared out wave. Just my thoughts.

12z should give us some clarity on the situation /s