Ralph Wiggum

Euro and CMC are decent hits for parts of SE PA. Euro is 3" up this way, the CMC focuses the better snows S of the TP. NAM trended better also. Officially has my attention.

Well, every time the Euro has trended better up till 60 hours while other guidance played the role of Dr No we have failed, so there's that. Maybe the roles are reversed for this one?

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth.

I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time.....

Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old.

I wouldnt hold my breath on winter's return. Trying to remain optimistic but the ens keep pushing the PAC ridge breakdown and any NAO help farther and farther down the line.

Here is a small glimmer of something during this blah pattern. NAM at range but has some support among guidance. We can hope for some white rain anyway. Doubt we would see any accums with temps in the mid and upper 30s but flakes nonetheless. It's all we have.

I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that.

Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead.

Might touch 60 up here next weekend maybe kiss 70 in Cape May per Euro. Light at the end of the tunnel is starting to dim. We can hope for 60 and some Wiggum snows anyway.

Saw my first ladybug this morning. Feels like March.

Throw it on the barby

If there is one plus to the AN temp regime it is coinciding with the spike in oil prices. Less heating oil is good for me!

We excel at trying to find ways to escape crap patterns and tellies. Lots of experience among us.

Ok so let's say this look holds. Does the SE ridge reflection save us from systems sliding south? Or would this look simply more of a cold entrenched surface with overrunning and ice ala 93-94? I'm thinking just looking at this there would be a boundary/gradient with systems trying to cut but CAD being entrenched due to the PV getting squashed from the Scan ridging. I know the look isnt horrible....just looks like a signal is there for icy with the strong PV just to the N and the SE Ridge flexing. I dunno....just talking out loud. Not much tracking attm.

My children (8 and 10) have been spoiled with the big snows and seem to just shrug off the 'normal' 3-6" events which are typically our big snows during an avg season. Like father like children lol.

Wait, no KU storms during this crud Pac pattern? Wth....I was planning for another snowmageddon and thought this was the window of opportunity

Same. Mine also think I somehow control when it will snow. Ironically they already had 1 snow day back in early Dec and we never saw a flake lol. Kids these days

Fyp

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.

CFS is all EPO driven late Jan into early Feb with zero Atl/NAO blocking. There is the Scan ridge mid Jan but that fades fast. It goes about developing the EPO much differently than what some of the ens means imply. CFS progresses the Pac ridge into the West coast while anchoring and strengthening the PV near Baffin Bay. The ens means suggest the Pac ridge and Western trof retrograde. The ens dont go out as far. This is something PSU discussed the other day discussing progression vs retrogression of the driving Pac ridge. I could see how as the ens means try and build a ridge bridge over the top it would support the retrograde signal. Hoping the CFS is wrong tbh as it keeps delaying the better pattern.

There looks to be a light at the end of this tunnel/god awful pattern. Starting to see subtle changes by 200 hours which has been slowly creeping closer in time. While I dont think THIS is the change yet, the extension of the Pac ridge into the AO region and the building of a Scandinavian ridge are all precursors to a hopeful positive shift in the pattern by roughly mid month. Latest GEFS and EPS both agree on the look and a return to colder anomalies in the Eastern US. EPS a little slower than the GEFS and noticed this may be in part to the EPS focusing more on nosing the Pac ridge slower and the GFS building and moving the Scan ridge into the AO regions faster. Basically timing differences but headed toward a similar progression. We could still accidentally back into a snow event during this lousy pattern over the next week which is somewhat head-scratching given the overall look. Any other year it would be a shutout/close the blinds scenario. This increases my confidence that once the current crud pattern transitions it may not take much to get things going for our region in terms of tracking winter events. Confidence in winter showing up again by mid month just in time for prime climo is increasing.

In one of my posts this morning I alluded to how this trend might not be the perfect or ideal look just yet BUT we are getting some help finally on the Atl side irt the Scandinavian ridge/block. Moving forward we not only are seeing the active 50/50 region that has been with us seemingly since Oct but we are seeing that building Atl ridge anchoring the 50/50 in place. If THAT is step one towards the better look, better chances, and a convoluted pattern I will take that look to bed with me monday thru saturday and twice on sunday.