Ralph Wiggum

Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle?

I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip.

Run at 60 again next weekend?

Actually it was worse.

If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week......

Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good:

Not sure what's worse....this game or the ICON taking the primary well into Quebec at 986mb

It isnt over yet.

Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.

It's only the ICON, I expect it to torch next weekend. Oh, the game, right.

Wow!

How are the Ravens playing from behind this season? I would assume they weren't in that situation too often?

Off hour run....toss it

Shhhhh, dont wake the weenies

Seems just fine to me....let the roller coaster ride begin.

I think next weekend had/has the attention of many because it is the first legit frozen threat after this torch weekend pattern and is also ushering in the change farther down the line. Albeit it's a mix look and pretty much always has been but frozen is frozen and better than 70 degrees.

NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.

Cant deny there is some serious cold being modeled to pour into the US after next weekend. EPS is more aggressive with this than the usually cold-bias GFS/GEFS.

Analyzing the GEFS moreso than the GFS. I dont put alot of stock in the op GFS until 5 days or less leads.

Getting that feeling we are going to continue to slowly move away from a big thump to mix situation and more thump quickly to sleet mix to rain usual areas with well inland holding onto frozen much longer. Typical progression with these storms. Better than where we are at today and tomorrow anyway.

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening:

Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N just off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter....thump to mix. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run.

Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240

JF 94 redux looking more and more possible starting next weekend