Ralph Wiggum

This period feb 6/7 begins a pattern where there may be N Atl ridging that stays for more than 2 days. Maybe we can even pop a block. Regardless warm west/cold east and active stj. Dont give up guys.

Isnt this where we are now ie 7 headed towards low amplitude 8 near COD?

But is it "Vodka Cold"?

Just a heads up I never said this would be a permanent feature. Brief window for now where my thinking is Feb 7-14 roughly. Maybe as u said later on we can lock it in for a period but its something.

Facts. But sit back and enjoy the -NAO start to build in the extended. You can actually see it on the LR data. Fits with Tom and a few others' thinking ie blocky Feb and backloaded.

This ^^^ MJO forecast was very good. Unfortunately your thinking of this correcting out and I to favorable looks for a pattern change isnt working out. Looks less amplified and never reaches 8 before hitting the COD. Euro says maybe it reemerges in 6/7 which isnt terrible. Should enter a period after Feb 6/7 where we finally achieve some NAO ridging and maybe a brief (longer?) winter pattern. Not over yet, but the MJO correction was a fail.

The ridge moving across central Canada is going to move into the NAO. If you loop the past 7 weeks this feature has progressed from the W Pac to the central pac briefly into the EPO region, then here in this map. The next stop for this feature is NAO region after Feb 6/7ish. Ens means are hinting at this. That ridging feature has had some holding power for whatever reason. If we get it to progress into the NAO in Feb and it has holding power for more that a couple days we may salvage part of the winter with a back loaded type. Weeklies hint at this not as strong as the ens means. I'm fairly optimistic regarding the signals.

Feb will be markedly different in a good way especially as we roll past the 6th/7th.

First time all season the NAO is showing signs of negative and for more than a day or two across all ens means after 300. Yeah caveats, unicorn chasing, and all other disclaimers apply. Most optimistic I've felt this year.

Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least.

Bad Euro/EPS run?

Wow, went from 12"+ down to around 1" in 12 hours on wxsim.

There is barely a storm but yea we cant ever get a good trend This is another swing and a miss storm. Even moving away quickly from a high elevation event and morphing into a fropa. Welcome back winter 2018-19.

At least we shouldn't enter spring in a drought so there's that.

Congrats.

Yours is stupider.

There arent really crazy swings at the surface tho. Haven't seen one hit for I95 cities yet. This has been and still is a far inland and elevation event. Hope I bust wrong and we get plastered but not seeing it.

I wonder if DT is at the rally in Richmond.

I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking?

Good luck with that.

And right on cue next model up sh!t the bed. Cant make this stuff up lol.

Please no....keep him away. I'm convinced he is our hex. Seriously joking but since he decided to take a hiatus things began looking up. Funny how that works.

Driving from warminster to blue Bell at 6am was a disaster. Sheet of ice. Lots of vehicles spun out.

GFS is wacky. Very unorthodox 850 temp progression. Not sure I recall seeing 850s cool like this with a ripping SE wind.