Ralph Wiggum

The Phillies had a guy named Ryan Howard. He took lots of swings. Too many. He led the league in K's and set numerous strikeout records. After a while taking swings gets old and you need a homerun. He led the league in homeruns several years prior but never got the magic back. Is that where we are headed irt snow?

Guess DT is cancelling winter.

Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening.

But but at least it snowed.

The silence from Bob Chill is telling/deafening.

But the pattern concesus no matter what nor how the tellies shift around to change the overall hemispheric look there is almost zero tendency neither this season or last to progress into something that provides meaningful widespread snows. I know parts of this sub had a fluke event 10 days ago but these small windows in between tellie shifts are the only ways we score and even then I would say of the 5 or 6 times the key features transition only 20% of those windows are producing. One of these seasons it will reverse and.the atmosphere will do no wrong. It is just proof again it is so damn hard to get a pattern that produces for more than one of our subs in a particular event.

It's the see-saw ens pattern we've seen since mid Dec. I have no clue what is causing it but we go 2 days of great looks then swing towards a degrading look then back again in 2 days. And at the end of the day the better looks and 'productive' storm chances are still 10 days+ out.

Dont use the GFS op for forecasting LR teleconnections would be the best advice anyone can offer.

This day 10 threat is closely resembling the system for this weekend at roughly the same lead time. Guidance showed ridging moving across S Central Canada with an ULL moving underneath. The ridging kept looking stronger for a bit and I remember posting how the surface low couldnt cut. Same setup day 10 now. Someone will assuredly reply how this setup is different and it is contingent on the 50/50 and the ridging I mentioned and that a minor adjustment puts us all in the game. And while I agree, there is the argument that a minor adjustment the other way can take us right out of the game too. In any event, the storm track and base pattern will be the same here as others recently. We've seen this before where the next one looks better, the one after that looks better. Not trying to deb just making my case why I think the long lead system is going to end up not working as we would like. Recent history and very similar setups say primary moves near the GL and secondary develops just a smidge too late. Timing and placement of key features are just a hair off this season for whatever reason. I hope we trend differently but I cant go against what we've seen already.....maybe this can somehow buck the trend and be "the one". Things look ok now on the ens but again, to have this hold or improve over 10 days this season is a tall order.

Isnt it 99% always day 10+ though?

@psuhoffman You asked (maybe sarcastically?) if I thought there was anything worth discussing under 240. I mentioned the one stronger NS vort some models are picking up on around 132-144 hours. Going to be a challenge until under 4 days and may end up being nothing, but since you posed the question and there really isnt much else going on. Maybe we can get this under us in some way, shape, or form tbd.

Clipper type system around day 6/7 then of course the stj wave day 10ish. Surface reflection of day 6/7 is meh tho we know clippers are lighter precip and also we sometimes dont see better reflection until under 4 days.

Key features are displaced just enough that the systems are either just off the coast, squashed to the S, or like this weekend system during the brief relaxes in the cold flow. That's my take from analyzing the LR. We might benefit from returning to focusing under 240 in this pattern.

Split out West should continue with little to no Atl blocking. Not a big dog (that's my therapy dog btw) look but I could see us score overrunning chances coming from energy undercutting the SW moving across and thru the bottom of the PV flow. But trying to nail the NS down specifically and spot something in the LR probably.wont work for us. Going to be a waiting game most likely and picking up on something under 5 days.

You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore.

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges?

Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps.

ICON has a 1047 high near quebec at 108. Stronger depiction past few runs anyway.

When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks.

Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle?

I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip.

Run at 60 again next weekend?

If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week......

Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good:

Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.