Ralph Wiggum

Seriously tho....whenever the day comes and we actually all get a warning level event again it is going to feel damn good. The waiting is the hardest part but the reward will be worth it.

This is one of the rare crap seasons that something is saying it isnt over. Normally I would have bailed 2 weeks ago lol. But I really think hl blocking is going to show up at the tail end and provide 1 nice storm. I really wouldnt be shocked if we wait the entire season then end the 2nd half of Feb with back to back storms. Would love a back to back holiday blitz....Valentine's and PD.

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

Frozen is over. Ended with 1.8" snow/sleet here.

Nasty here. Straight ice storm sleet/fzra mix. 28f. Everything is a sheet of ice....numerous accidents.

Pretty sure it has most of the day?

Maybe I'm misreading it....I'm running a loop and sure looks like the panhandle low heads NE and the upper low over the Plains captures a different low. Either way it's a different solution.

Looks like you jumped at the right time. I'm giving it until Feb 10. If nothing on the horizon I'm out.

No. That low ends up over NC. There is an ULL that pops a surface low in Indiana.

When the euro shows a wonky solution it's pretty much congrats New England.

Largest event of the season. 1" out there!!! Amazing.

I started an obs thread:

Temp 23F in Blue Bell. Menacing gray clouds to my SW.

HRRR fwiw continues the trend colder. Hangs on to 850s a bit longer...less sleet here more white. Not sure I buy it. Best bet is a mix. Wont be above freezing in my area til after 8PM it seems on alot of guidance now. Eta: still showing only a c-1" here...very dry. Now cast time. Off to work....

3k NAM colder at surface. More ice up this way. Drive home at 7 should be fun.

Feels like winter for a day anyway. 21F and has that gray sky wintry vibe.

Lull was forecast. It is the gap between the WAA band and the front. Should be intermittent stuff then resume this afternoon. 2-5" up your way with possible mixing.

And that seems realistic. Antecedent temps and +anomalous 2m/850s preceding the storm generally dont bode well for the lower elevations. The banana high looks nice but this doesnt look like a SECS for the i95 cities (maybe BOS) at this time.

Intermittent precip/lull between the WAA band and the batch trailing behind. Farther North the shorter the lull. In the SE part of the state...c-2" snow then a .25-.5" sleet a little less extreme SE counties. Just enough to make travel slick.

Fascinating. Which area is getting a foot of snow next week?

12k NAM increased qpf now in line with the GFSand others. 3k NAM is all frozen here save for the tail end.

18z GFS is 6" all snow up here ending as rain showers. Shows no sleet.

Dont need no stinking computer generated map to tell me this is some serious HP settling in. It is cold, breeze out of the N, and the sky has that classic deep blue look to it with nary a cloud in sight. Radiational cooling tonight and the stage is set for tomorrow. Doubt it will be the last frozen of the season but certainly the biggest so far. Savor it like we wont see it again until next season.

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things.

Agreed. Doubt we see much non-frozen up here. Thinking about an inch or so snow then lots of sleet.