Ralph Wiggum

Off hour run....toss it

Shhhhh, dont wake the weenies

I think next weekend had/has the attention of many because it is the first legit frozen threat after this torch weekend pattern and is also ushering in the change farther down the line. Albeit it's a mix look and pretty much always has been but frozen is frozen and better than 70 degrees.

NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.

Analyzing the GEFS moreso than the GFS. I dont put alot of stock in the op GFS until 5 days or less leads.

Getting that feeling we are going to continue to slowly move away from a big thump to mix situation and more thump quickly to sleet mix to rain usual areas with well inland holding onto frozen much longer. Typical progression with these storms. Better than where we are at today and tomorrow anyway.

GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:

Watch the EPO ridge progression the last 6 gefs runs for the same forecast time....eye opening:

Jan 21-25 still strong signal for our best window of the season. Next weekend storm clears, old front/baro boundary hung up just off the coast, arctic air in place, several waves riding the boundary. GEFS has an actual surface low depiction developing from one of the waves and brings it N just off the Delmarva. Outside of 1 run yesterday (18z?) this general window has been lighting up as a period to watch. Of course it is way out there and we need to see about next weekend but my thoughts have always been next weekend is the table setter....thump to mix. Irt next weekend on the GEFS the ridging to the N and nosing into Baffin Sea has been increasing run over run.

Euro wants no parts to next weekend.....but the setup post 240

Mentioned on another forum earlier that I can see this whole pattern evolution to a workable look actually be relatively short-lived. Transitioning from the Pac death blob ridge/SE ridge/-PNA (cutters) pattern to a HUGE epo ridge and no SE Ridge (cold/dry...think suppressed or off the coast). Could honestly see Jan 18-25 being the window between patterns that could produce. Now of course this is assuming we go where I mentioned. Been skeptical of locking in to something favorable for a while and mentioned before these 'windows' could end up being our real chances. Even if so, we could still reach climo averages so Im not poo pooing on where we are headed. Guess I'm exercising cautious optimism as it is so hard to get sustained favorable patterns and we should take our threats one by one and savor.

Anyone else licking their chops at the tail end of that run?? Plenty of chances ahead. Would be happy cashing in on just 1 half decent warning criteria event. Is that asking too much?

GFS bias....too cold, overpowering ns. Extrapolation adjustments say not to worry. /s

GFS HH op is only a few minor adjustments from a complete weenie run days 7 forward. Interested in the GEFS.

Jan 21-25 is the one imo. Next weekend sets the stage. Strong signals on ens for that period and now ops sniffing something...maybe glue, not sure yet.

Yep, the infamous epic unicorn looks across the board on all ens, weeklies, tellies, etc. It was a fail proof look all around and it was only 10+ days away. Never forget.

Should we temper expectations at all since this is still 10+ days out and we are seeing alot of shuffling around still or are we diving in headfirst?

I feel like that split has been there since early fall when I was researching data for my winter outlook. Talk about a recurring theme!

I have never seen that before on a LR weeklies chart....ever.

Get something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent and strong signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon:

Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo: Ninja'd by @Ji

Very different look

GEFS is move SE for next weekend. Not there yet but better ridging out W and a flatter SE ridge.

Gotta love op runs at range. Pattern is getting blocked up like a large intestine after a night of cheese binging but the op tries to cut the energy up into SE Canada right into the logjam. Makes perfect sense

This run, sure. But like Chill said the confluence is transient. Wont take much change in the fast ns flow to either screw things up horribly or make for a good storm. Based on the pattern we are moving out of I favor the crud scenario unfolding but I think this sets us up for down the road much better irt overall longwave pattern.