Ralph Wiggum

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience.

Ironically the GEFS moved away from this system. Still there but past runs were better. Euro op might be out to lunch, just a hunch, we've seen this a bunch....the gutpunch.

Shame it's the op. Hopefully the ens can support it at least a bit. The HL look alone is somewhat drool worthy. But we have been so starved of any HL blocking that anything looks good. It's like a drooling rabid dog that hasn't seen a meal in a week.

Maybe we somehow can get the AK PV to sort of roll over and displace near the Aleutians? Time that with the ridging near the NAO, the PNA spike, and have that feature pump heights into the EPO domain. Just looking for possibilities. Of course 10 days+ out, things could collapse and go opposite etc. There is some confidence beginning to build in the LR and I like how they are 'hints' and not some in your face epic look that will undoubtedly fall apart.

This could work down the road. Just starting to get the cold air source reloaded too. Like PSU said, need the AK vort to loosen its grip a bit. Thinking a bit farther along is where the key period lies. Might not reflect on the op but I like where we might be headed in Feb.

CMC has the Bob Chill storm near Hatteras. Little weak, but better run.

That's a heck of a 50/50 setting up. If only this wasnt 10 days out...as always lol. Eta: I still like the general look in the LR as ns systems continue to dive, pna keeps firing, stj is undercutting and juicy, and there is ridging in the N Atl (East based NAo region?) developing. The AK vort is actually pumping height under and out in front and feeding the PNA. Maybe it can help just enough instead if be a thorn in our sides.

Something brewing behind it too. Active times ahead. The setup moving forward after the 5th if it progresses as shown and some models are depicting may provide some redemption even if only short-lived for a week or so. But alas, one system at a time.

500mb suggests not quite as "cut" as the surface map may depict. The key features were much better. PNA, diving NS energy into the trof, some ridging out ahead, weak confluence but at least there. Align that trof axis right between the 6z Gefs and this op run and voila.

But it gave us snow lol unlike the coastals lol Really honking at mid and upper levels. Forget surface for a few days. Every piece of guidance is screaming major winter storm next weekend somewhere in the East.

It's not every day you see a decent LP track due East from Dallas to Savannah to Bermuda.

Send a ty for replying and provide your physical addy to where they can send a belated gift.

Precisely what I've been saying since Dec 1 which was essentially a carryover observation from last year: we cannot find a way to get both the respective Pac and Atl sides to cooperate in tandem. One of these days...maybe.

Arent they all the best setups 7+ days out? Probably why the period I'm looking at will end up a heap of gasoline soaked newspapers in a dumpster with @WxWatcher007 standing next to it with a lit match.

Superbowl weekend GEFS is a bit slower but also a little farther off the coast, farther S with the ULL, and colder than the GFS op implies. Probably doesnt mean a whole lot 200 hours out and we know the preceding storm(s) or lack thereof will affect this one. But for purposes of my morning coffee I am glancing ahead if for no other reason than kicks and giggles. Still maintaining my thoughts on an evolution to a better (brief?) Atl side with winter storm potential between the 6th and the 13th give or take a day either side. NAO ridging continues showing up on many of the ens with a positive PNA, active stj undercutting the PNA, and just enough cold air around. I think what allows the NAO to build if only for a brief period is the relax of the Hudson Bay PV over into AK allowing for the weaker remaining lobe of the PV to be pushed around. Sucks we cant seem to get both sides (Pac/Atl) to coincide a bit better but it is what it is. As we get later into the season I expect more HL blockiness to develop near the NAO as the weakening PV will be allowed to get displaced with more ease. If we can get the EPO to pop in tandem that is a look I would embrace. Last pic is the GEFS ens mean showing the NAO ridge which the EPS was implying as well during this period. GFS op: GEFS: GEFS mean east basedNAO/N Atl ridge:

This storm?

Which dates?

Agreed. I actually prefer to back into a snow event via trends rather than have a HECS shown and start stepping back. Guess it reduces the heartbreak when op expectations are lower lol.

I wouldnt be worrying much about temps on a day 8-10ish threat tbh. It isnt overwhelming cold but just cold enough and primo climo time. There is also ridging just to the N pressing the storm track just underneath us. But this track during prime climo will work. Many were saying too warm at same leads during the ice event last week where we ended up never getting above freezing. Again I would be watching the overall setup and 500 trends which are encouraging for a LR system right now. Feeling good where we are heading as Jan winds down. There is so much energy rolling thru after 120 hours I urge caution getting too caught up in op to op runs right now. Those shortwave wont be sorted out for another 3-4 days at least. Strong potential is what we have right now. This look will work btw:

All the storm needs now is precipitation and we good smh lol It's normal that a closing ULL swings by right under us, a coastal low crawls along the benchmark track for 2.5 days while deepening borderline bombing out and there is light precip all around. Happend all the time. Key features are there at this point....all that matters.

At least someone on the overnight crew is not sleeping on the clock. Ty Randy. Slow dumping coastal hitting DC-BOS....been a while. Lock it up.

Didnt he cancel winter just 2 days ago? Funny how that works.

CMC is setting up a nice event. All guidance honking.

Looks like a good potential period there Jan 30-Feb 3 or so. But nothing "has to" get us square. See the appendix of the weenie handbook titled "How We Fail....Those Things We Do the Best"