Ralph Wiggum

With fresh blades of grass beginning to emerge and weeds already sprouting and spreading, today seems like as good a day as any to hunker down in the shed and give the lawnmower a tuneup.

This winter took one look at the "Winter of Azz" last year and said 'Hold my beer!".

One of the best:

It's only chaos when it doesnt show what we want.

Probably not many. Nearly every run of every model except that 12z Euro (and one icon run which I dont count that model) has been majority rain. We dont do thread the needle well.

Is that the Bob Chill storm or the SB storm or a hybrid thereof?

Silly ICON. Is this thing ever correct at this range? We can only hope , right?

Should have read ens not end, my typo

GEPS is showing essentially the same feature....smh

Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS.

Try Boma in Animal Kingdom next time for a top notch buffet. Cape May Cafe is another top notch seafood buffet....one of the best I've had ever. I'll be there in May!

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience.

Ironically the GEFS moved away from this system. Still there but past runs were better. Euro op might be out to lunch, just a hunch, we've seen this a bunch....the gutpunch.

Shame it's the op. Hopefully the ens can support it at least a bit. The HL look alone is somewhat drool worthy. But we have been so starved of any HL blocking that anything looks good. It's like a drooling rabid dog that hasn't seen a meal in a week.

Maybe we somehow can get the AK PV to sort of roll over and displace near the Aleutians? Time that with the ridging near the NAO, the PNA spike, and have that feature pump heights into the EPO domain. Just looking for possibilities. Of course 10 days+ out, things could collapse and go opposite etc. There is some confidence beginning to build in the LR and I like how they are 'hints' and not some in your face epic look that will undoubtedly fall apart.

This could work down the road. Just starting to get the cold air source reloaded too. Like PSU said, need the AK vort to loosen its grip a bit. Thinking a bit farther along is where the key period lies. Might not reflect on the op but I like where we might be headed in Feb.

CMC has the Bob Chill storm near Hatteras. Little weak, but better run.

That's a heck of a 50/50 setting up. If only this wasnt 10 days out...as always lol. Eta: I still like the general look in the LR as ns systems continue to dive, pna keeps firing, stj is undercutting and juicy, and there is ridging in the N Atl (East based NAo region?) developing. The AK vort is actually pumping height under and out in front and feeding the PNA. Maybe it can help just enough instead if be a thorn in our sides.

Something brewing behind it too. Active times ahead. The setup moving forward after the 5th if it progresses as shown and some models are depicting may provide some redemption even if only short-lived for a week or so. But alas, one system at a time.

500mb suggests not quite as "cut" as the surface map may depict. The key features were much better. PNA, diving NS energy into the trof, some ridging out ahead, weak confluence but at least there. Align that trof axis right between the 6z Gefs and this op run and voila.

But it gave us snow lol unlike the coastals lol Really honking at mid and upper levels. Forget surface for a few days. Every piece of guidance is screaming major winter storm next weekend somewhere in the East.

It's not every day you see a decent LP track due East from Dallas to Savannah to Bermuda.

Send a ty for replying and provide your physical addy to where they can send a belated gift.

Precisely what I've been saying since Dec 1 which was essentially a carryover observation from last year: we cannot find a way to get both the respective Pac and Atl sides to cooperate in tandem. One of these days...maybe.