Ralph Wiggum

I like how we have like 3 weakish waves along the front midweek each slowly pushing the boundary/gradient SE.....then it finally clears the area and we are cold enough for frozen for wave #4 but the caboose wave decides to amplify just enough to warm the critical layers for rain lol.

Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Bermuda high ftmfw!

It's amazing that 3 days ago models were showing one of the strongest neg NAOs I've seen forecast in a long time. Not only did they flip it to a raging +NAO but instead shifted the greatest SD anomalies towards the Gulf of Alaska. I dont ever recall such dramatic 180 flips in such short periods as this year. Worst part is that guidance has trended away from any good looks every time we were teased and never once the opposite ie bad look towards a good look. I dont know if guidance has climo factored in but if so programmers need to oust the outdated climo data and replace with fresh climo data to reboot how forecasting progs are modeled.

If that ridge heads into central Canada and connects with the se ridge with the MJO going 5-6 we are going to be talking record high temps before talking snow chances. I can see this heading towards a frustratingly close mid to late Feb with arctic air lingering very close to the N and W but anomalous warmth via the se ridge in our area. It's just one of those seasons. You highlighted it well with the analogues of the Jan pattern and the history of looks going forward the rest of winter.

If that S AK ridge moves into the HL and links up with the se ridge to go full lat it will be early spring. I see more ways to fail with that look than to score tbh. Not saying we cant reverse the curse and get one hit before its over but the clock is ticking.

I said I will give it till feb 10 before raising the white flag but damn it is going to be a challenge to hang in that long. Every single index is against us. +++AO, ++NAO, -PNA, MJO going into 5-6, se ridge raging. The window is shutting quickly as is the winter. I can see an early spring this year tbh. All signs are leaning against the recent cold and snowy Marches repeating this year. Feb 10 is it for me...if nothing within 7 days at that time I am over and out. Time is running out folks.

Fyp

I heard the weenies misread your post and have set fire to the Panic Room. Honest misinterpretation I suppose

Farmers almanac was way off this year. At least you and Joe Bastardi are sharing your ideas hinting irt similarities to the '93 pattern headed later into Feb. We can hope.

ICON supports this run ^^ but I'm sure the GFS will come along and draw people into thinking there is a chance with raging ++AO and ++NAO. Next winter can only be better, cant be worse right? I mean, seriously we have hit rock bottom right? I think we all need a group hug....or group therapy. Either will suffice.

Facts. Saudi Arabian deserts are the new Siberia.

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

Why wasnt this posted? All y'all weenies are slackin. And like they say, good to see the max zone a bit South. ETA: weenie rule #923...the big ones are sniffed out early

A SE ridge is fine tbh and is one of the ways we avoid suppression in certain patterns. But in a gradient flow without any HL block the SE Ridge will pump heights too far N and W. And right now it looks as if we will only see transient weak ridging up top, but who knows. The ens have flipped on a dime before.

Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave.

You arent wrong. I will give you that much. Heck at the end of the day when you look at the calendar it does still say "January", so there's that.

Speaking for myself I had definitely thought given the balanced pros and cons back in late Oct and early Nov that at the very least we would end the season near avg even slightly above irt snowfall. That could still happen with a fluke storm or if we stumble into a range in the midst of this dumpster fire where we score on a couple decent events. But admittedly this season is not going as I had expected. There has been virtually ZERO HL blocking. Even the EPO ridge back around the start of met winter was brief. Many are saying the IOD is the culprit, other the PDO, and many claiming the MJO is at fault. All 3 are independently connected so this isnt a surprise that the IO and PO are essentially driving our pattern here downstream. The other factor is the PV developed into one strong gyre that has basically remained anchored in the same spot at times and not wobbling around, splitting, elongating, etc. This is likely a function of how the strat is affecting things, but with this said it hasn't allowed to PV at the trop level to be bullied around so every time a HL ridge tries to nose closer to the PV it just gets knocked down. Who knows what will happen going forward irt blocking. There are still chances over the next 10 day+ as a gradient/boundary pattern gets established partly in response to the SE Ridge showing up. However, unless we can get a piece of the PV to supply some cold and force the boundary under us, we will likely continue to fail here in SE PA. But dont throw in the towel just yet....we are still in prime climo and even in the worst years things can pull together for a surprise. 1983 was a good example of that.

@psuhoffman agree with your reply above. It's just mind boggling how guidance jumps on such a potent -NAO block for several consecutive runs and not even la la land per se (under 10 days) then completely flip to a raging +NAO in one run and never look back. Rarely happens the other way right, lol? Chances are still there, boundary/gradient pattern may setup so maybe we can stumble into something....not giving up just yet. I think I said Feb 10ish was my threshold if nothing is on the horizon. On the bright side, if we dont see another flake this season, next year will almost (emphasis on almost) inevitably be better. Things can only go up...right?

Does guidance ever trend towards favorable looks any more in the MR/LR or is it perpetually lopsided where good looks tease us then flip towards crud? If we were inside of an epic winter would crud looks be repeatedly shown 10 days out then flip to epic? Just seems so common we are teased to have the.rug pulled out from under us....I just wonder if there is something to this or it's just frustration building in.

I still cant wrap my head around how guidance can show decent patterns 10 days out but then totally flip on those looks yet if they show a crud pattern 10 days out it almost never flips to the good.

Not a cozy feeling seeing guidance almost completely lose the strong -NAO being forecast for a while in the LR and replace it with a +NAO and SE ridge almost across the board.

i though the comp reflectivity map was what the radar is forecast to look like at a specific time and not accums? Forecast of dbz's on a radar essentially.