Ralph Wiggum

That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail.

The wheels appear to be in motion.

Better than "epic unicorns".

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth.

I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time.....

Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old.

I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that.

Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead.

We excel at trying to find ways to escape crap patterns and tellies. Lots of experience among us.

Ok so let's say this look holds. Does the SE ridge reflection save us from systems sliding south? Or would this look simply more of a cold entrenched surface with overrunning and ice ala 93-94? I'm thinking just looking at this there would be a boundary/gradient with systems trying to cut but CAD being entrenched due to the PV getting squashed from the Scan ridging. I know the look isnt horrible....just looks like a signal is there for icy with the strong PV just to the N and the SE Ridge flexing. I dunno....just talking out loud. Not much tracking attm.

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.

CFS is all EPO driven late Jan into early Feb with zero Atl/NAO blocking. There is the Scan ridge mid Jan but that fades fast. It goes about developing the EPO much differently than what some of the ens means imply. CFS progresses the Pac ridge into the West coast while anchoring and strengthening the PV near Baffin Bay. The ens means suggest the Pac ridge and Western trof retrograde. The ens dont go out as far. This is something PSU discussed the other day discussing progression vs retrogression of the driving Pac ridge. I could see how as the ens means try and build a ridge bridge over the top it would support the retrograde signal. Hoping the CFS is wrong tbh as it keeps delaying the better pattern.

In one of my posts this morning I alluded to how this trend might not be the perfect or ideal look just yet BUT we are getting some help finally on the Atl side irt the Scandinavian ridge/block. Moving forward we not only are seeing the active 50/50 region that has been with us seemingly since Oct but we are seeing that building Atl ridge anchoring the 50/50 in place. If THAT is step one towards the better look, better chances, and a convoluted pattern I will take that look to bed with me monday thru saturday and twice on sunday.

Doesnt dig the ULL as much and trof is more positively tilted and progressive.

When do we double down? 12z?

@showmethesnow agree with you...decent 'potential' for an event especially Eastern points. Your analysis is on-point as always. Only thing with the Euro family, we saw some similar lead ups 3rd week November and 2nd week December events. I'm skeptical of the Euro. Might be doing it again where it is showing us best case scenario then will level off or even degrade slightly within 60 hours. Hoping the favorable trends continue but hesitant to go all in just yet. I could see some areas getting rain to fat wet flakes tho fo sho.

Scandinavian ridging really beginning to flex and show some staying power on the GEFS. It actually looks to help keep a general 50/50 present most of the run. We take.

EPS and GEFS continue the trend for some higher heights in the AO region beginning by ~ 200 hours. If you look at the delta changes over the past 4 or 5 runs those rises have been notable. Now whether that is a passing thing from the TPV wobble or might be a sign of some changes moving forward in the overall hemi pattern not sure. But thought that was worth mentioning anyway since that is a key area where we hope to see some signs of changes as we move ahead. Eta: did a little more digging and it appears to my old eyes that the Central Pac ridge is actually aiding in the development I mentioned by trying to feed rising heights into that region. There is a signal among ens members also that the extension into the AO tries and form a quasi ridge bridge across the Pole into Scandinavia (gefs faster and more aggressive). This isnt fantasy range as it is beginning just under 200 hours now. That wouldnt be a terrible look and certainly something to watch.

I agree with all of this. Only thing of note I dont like which I didnt see mentioned is the LP near Lake Superior. You know those GL lows love to mess with us. Column is good enough tho as u said to at least start as snow. I just have a thing for lp near the Lakes.

I like this wording. So you are interested....borderline 'very' interested. What is level 3 after 'very'? Asking for a comrade.

Only conjecture at this range and who's to say the GEFS are right...but the colder 850 anomalies are sliding East at the end of the run. It is a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

We can only hope: Eta:GEFS has a more smoothed over -AO look but the signal is there at least.

You might be making s'mores in the snow says the GFS. New year. New attitude.