Ralph Wiggum

Arent they all the best setups 7+ days out? Probably why the period I'm looking at will end up a heap of gasoline soaked newspapers in a dumpster with @WxWatcher007 standing next to it with a lit match.

Superbowl weekend GEFS is a bit slower but also a little farther off the coast, farther S with the ULL, and colder than the GFS op implies. Probably doesnt mean a whole lot 200 hours out and we know the preceding storm(s) or lack thereof will affect this one. But for purposes of my morning coffee I am glancing ahead if for no other reason than kicks and giggles. Still maintaining my thoughts on an evolution to a better (brief?) Atl side with winter storm potential between the 6th and the 13th give or take a day either side. NAO ridging continues showing up on many of the ens with a positive PNA, active stj undercutting the PNA, and just enough cold air around. I think what allows the NAO to build if only for a brief period is the relax of the Hudson Bay PV over into AK allowing for the weaker remaining lobe of the PV to be pushed around. Sucks we cant seem to get both sides (Pac/Atl) to coincide a bit better but it is what it is. As we get later into the season I expect more HL blockiness to develop near the NAO as the weakening PV will be allowed to get displaced with more ease. If we can get the EPO to pop in tandem that is a look I would embrace. Last pic is the GEFS ens mean showing the NAO ridge which the EPS was implying as well during this period. GFS op: GEFS: GEFS mean east basedNAO/N Atl ridge:

This storm?

Which dates?

Agreed. I actually prefer to back into a snow event via trends rather than have a HECS shown and start stepping back. Guess it reduces the heartbreak when op expectations are lower lol.

I wouldnt be worrying much about temps on a day 8-10ish threat tbh. It isnt overwhelming cold but just cold enough and primo climo time. There is also ridging just to the N pressing the storm track just underneath us. But this track during prime climo will work. Many were saying too warm at same leads during the ice event last week where we ended up never getting above freezing. Again I would be watching the overall setup and 500 trends which are encouraging for a LR system right now. Feeling good where we are heading as Jan winds down. There is so much energy rolling thru after 120 hours I urge caution getting too caught up in op to op runs right now. Those shortwave wont be sorted out for another 3-4 days at least. Strong potential is what we have right now. This look will work btw:

All the storm needs now is precipitation and we good smh lol It's normal that a closing ULL swings by right under us, a coastal low crawls along the benchmark track for 2.5 days while deepening borderline bombing out and there is light precip all around. Happend all the time. Key features are there at this point....all that matters.

At least someone on the overnight crew is not sleeping on the clock. Ty Randy. Slow dumping coastal hitting DC-BOS....been a while. Lock it up.

Didnt he cancel winter just 2 days ago? Funny how that works.

CMC is setting up a nice event. All guidance honking.

Looks like a good potential period there Jan 30-Feb 3 or so. But nothing "has to" get us square. See the appendix of the weenie handbook titled "How We Fail....Those Things We Do the Best"

Guidance is honking for the Jan 30-Feb 3 period. Extremely active flow and PNA ridge developing out West, ridging to the N, strong confluence, and stj undercutting the PNA ridge out west.. No way guidance will get this hashed out for several days but this looks like a solid period for some sort of signficant storm in the East. Definitely has my attention.

Pineapple connection....nice stj flow undercutting the developing PNA ridge.

Gonna be fun tracking. No way models will handle this properly for another 4 days give or take. I'm counting no less than 6 shortwave embedded in the flow....you can argue there are as many as 8. Get some rest...fun times ahead.

Disagree respectfully. I've been saying for a bit that things turn for the better sooner than later. I am liking the Feb 7-14 (give or take a day either side) alot and there are strong signals on the ens means and even individual members as well as the cfs weeklies that winter makes its appearance finally. PNA ridge, signs of ridging near the NAO region, breakdown of AK vortex, and signs the AO may even try and tag along for some fun all the while the stj and njet are loading up with disturbances. Sticking to that for now until I see a reason to back down. I've given up on MJO, IOD, QBO, SOI, AAM, and other tellie indices for now and am going back to basics. Looping weeks worth of 500mb charts are actually providing more of an idea of where we are headed as opposed to the computers spitting out index numbers and values. Just my thoughts on that. Those indices are useful but they are not working out for LR forecasts this year nor last. Simplicity rules. The question imho is whether we sustain that pattern thru mid March or it is 1 week and out. Tbd.

It's happening. Someone post the gif

Did you just throw out a "fortnight"? Aside from the video game I haven't seen that term used in meteorological discussion in a....yeah.

Is this closer? Caveat ops, at range, dragons unicorns, blah blah

Striped bass/shad/herring run on the Delaware River in the snow.....again. Cant wait!

Anything noteworthy on the EPS LR?

Wish there was an archived radar loop for that one.

I was only 10 but the thunder, lightning, and 5"/hr rates for a period is something not soon forgotten.

I thought just S of Greenland and the mouth of Baffin Sea was considered the NA and in fact part of the NAO region?

I dont think a single person here would object to one Feb 1983 type hit before the season ends. Well, most people anyway.

Not concerned with the ops but the ens continue to promote ridging in the N atl near the NAO. But some are saying it isnt a real ridge and just higher transient heights that likely wont mean anything. But if you loop the last 3 weeks+ into that period you can see the center of a ridge signal progressing into the NAO. Any time the means show ridging in the area and are in agreement warrants at least one raised eyebrow especially given this winter. I'm optimistic. Why not?