Ralph Wiggum

Guidance is honking for the Jan 30-Feb 3 period. Extremely active flow and PNA ridge developing out West, ridging to the N, strong confluence, and stj undercutting the PNA ridge out west.. No way guidance will get this hashed out for several days but this looks like a solid period for some sort of signficant storm in the East. Definitely has my attention.

Pineapple connection....nice stj flow undercutting the developing PNA ridge.

Gonna be fun tracking. No way models will handle this properly for another 4 days give or take. I'm counting no less than 6 shortwave embedded in the flow....you can argue there are as many as 8. Get some rest...fun times ahead.

Disagree respectfully. I've been saying for a bit that things turn for the better sooner than later. I am liking the Feb 7-14 (give or take a day either side) alot and there are strong signals on the ens means and even individual members as well as the cfs weeklies that winter makes its appearance finally. PNA ridge, signs of ridging near the NAO region, breakdown of AK vortex, and signs the AO may even try and tag along for some fun all the while the stj and njet are loading up with disturbances. Sticking to that for now until I see a reason to back down. I've given up on MJO, IOD, QBO, SOI, AAM, and other tellie indices for now and am going back to basics. Looping weeks worth of 500mb charts are actually providing more of an idea of where we are headed as opposed to the computers spitting out index numbers and values. Just my thoughts on that. Those indices are useful but they are not working out for LR forecasts this year nor last. Simplicity rules. The question imho is whether we sustain that pattern thru mid March or it is 1 week and out. Tbd.

It's happening. Someone post the gif

Did you just throw out a "fortnight"? Aside from the video game I haven't seen that term used in meteorological discussion in a....yeah.

Is this closer? Caveat ops, at range, dragons unicorns, blah blah

Striped bass/shad/herring run on the Delaware River in the snow.....again. Cant wait!

Anything noteworthy on the EPS LR?

Wish there was an archived radar loop for that one.

I was only 10 but the thunder, lightning, and 5"/hr rates for a period is something not soon forgotten.

I thought just S of Greenland and the mouth of Baffin Sea was considered the NA and in fact part of the NAO region?

I dont think a single person here would object to one Feb 1983 type hit before the season ends. Well, most people anyway.

Not concerned with the ops but the ens continue to promote ridging in the N atl near the NAO. But some are saying it isnt a real ridge and just higher transient heights that likely wont mean anything. But if you loop the last 3 weeks+ into that period you can see the center of a ridge signal progressing into the NAO. Any time the means show ridging in the area and are in agreement warrants at least one raised eyebrow especially given this winter. I'm optimistic. Why not?

This period feb 6/7 begins a pattern where there may be N Atl ridging that stays for more than 2 days. Maybe we can even pop a block. Regardless warm west/cold east and active stj. Dont give up guys.

Isnt this where we are now ie 7 headed towards low amplitude 8 near COD?

But is it "Vodka Cold"?

Just a heads up I never said this would be a permanent feature. Brief window for now where my thinking is Feb 7-14 roughly. Maybe as u said later on we can lock it in for a period but its something.

Facts. But sit back and enjoy the -NAO start to build in the extended. You can actually see it on the LR data. Fits with Tom and a few others' thinking ie blocky Feb and backloaded.

This ^^^ MJO forecast was very good. Unfortunately your thinking of this correcting out and I to favorable looks for a pattern change isnt working out. Looks less amplified and never reaches 8 before hitting the COD. Euro says maybe it reemerges in 6/7 which isnt terrible. Should enter a period after Feb 6/7 where we finally achieve some NAO ridging and maybe a brief (longer?) winter pattern. Not over yet, but the MJO correction was a fail.

The ridge moving across central Canada is going to move into the NAO. If you loop the past 7 weeks this feature has progressed from the W Pac to the central pac briefly into the EPO region, then here in this map. The next stop for this feature is NAO region after Feb 6/7ish. Ens means are hinting at this. That ridging feature has had some holding power for whatever reason. If we get it to progress into the NAO in Feb and it has holding power for more that a couple days we may salvage part of the winter with a back loaded type. Weeklies hint at this not as strong as the ens means. I'm fairly optimistic regarding the signals.

Feb will be markedly different in a good way especially as we roll past the 6th/7th.

First time all season the NAO is showing signs of negative and for more than a day or two across all ens means after 300. Yeah caveats, unicorn chasing, and all other disclaimers apply. Most optimistic I've felt this year.

Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least.