Ralph Wiggum

A SE ridge is fine tbh and is one of the ways we avoid suppression in certain patterns. But in a gradient flow without any HL block the SE Ridge will pump heights too far N and W. And right now it looks as if we will only see transient weak ridging up top, but who knows. The ens have flipped on a dime before.

Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave.

You arent wrong. I will give you that much. Heck at the end of the day when you look at the calendar it does still say "January", so there's that.

Speaking for myself I had definitely thought given the balanced pros and cons back in late Oct and early Nov that at the very least we would end the season near avg even slightly above irt snowfall. That could still happen with a fluke storm or if we stumble into a range in the midst of this dumpster fire where we score on a couple decent events. But admittedly this season is not going as I had expected. There has been virtually ZERO HL blocking. Even the EPO ridge back around the start of met winter was brief. Many are saying the IOD is the culprit, other the PDO, and many claiming the MJO is at fault. All 3 are independently connected so this isnt a surprise that the IO and PO are essentially driving our pattern here downstream. The other factor is the PV developed into one strong gyre that has basically remained anchored in the same spot at times and not wobbling around, splitting, elongating, etc. This is likely a function of how the strat is affecting things, but with this said it hasn't allowed to PV at the trop level to be bullied around so every time a HL ridge tries to nose closer to the PV it just gets knocked down. Who knows what will happen going forward irt blocking. There are still chances over the next 10 day+ as a gradient/boundary pattern gets established partly in response to the SE Ridge showing up. However, unless we can get a piece of the PV to supply some cold and force the boundary under us, we will likely continue to fail here in SE PA. But dont throw in the towel just yet....we are still in prime climo and even in the worst years things can pull together for a surprise. 1983 was a good example of that.

@psuhoffman agree with your reply above. It's just mind boggling how guidance jumps on such a potent -NAO block for several consecutive runs and not even la la land per se (under 10 days) then completely flip to a raging +NAO in one run and never look back. Rarely happens the other way right, lol? Chances are still there, boundary/gradient pattern may setup so maybe we can stumble into something....not giving up just yet. I think I said Feb 10ish was my threshold if nothing is on the horizon. On the bright side, if we dont see another flake this season, next year will almost (emphasis on almost) inevitably be better. Things can only go up...right?

Does guidance ever trend towards favorable looks any more in the MR/LR or is it perpetually lopsided where good looks tease us then flip towards crud? If we were inside of an epic winter would crud looks be repeatedly shown 10 days out then flip to epic? Just seems so common we are teased to have the.rug pulled out from under us....I just wonder if there is something to this or it's just frustration building in.

I still cant wrap my head around how guidance can show decent patterns 10 days out but then totally flip on those looks yet if they show a crud pattern 10 days out it almost never flips to the good.

Not a cozy feeling seeing guidance almost completely lose the strong -NAO being forecast for a while in the LR and replace it with a +NAO and SE ridge almost across the board.

i though the comp reflectivity map was what the radar is forecast to look like at a specific time and not accums? Forecast of dbz's on a radar essentially.

Bingo. Overall look solid. Analyzing precise details right now not worth the time.

Day 10 of the euro is setting up a MECS with snow already breaking out in SE PA and energy transferring to the coast. We only need cold air just cold enough....dont need temps in the single digits lol.

Temps in the 60s next week leading into the time period of focus. Hmmm.

That's a MECS setup right there imho.

Gotta get the warm days during climo to see the snow several days later.

Entire mid atlantic on the wrong side of the boundary. Shift the boundary south and we have an epic 10 day stretch. Frustratingly guidance has trended N with that feature.

At 90 hour is west and slightly s of 6z...maybe just slower.

This isnt the one imo. We in the immediate Philly burbs I95 corridor and e of the fall line are hoping for a perfect scenario with phasing at the precise place and time and LP strengthening and location in a specific spot at a specific time to incur dynamic cooling to produce high enough rates for accumulations. There just isnt enough antecedent cold air in place for areas I mentioned. Now if the 6z icon has any semblance of a clue then farther N and W high elevations might do ok with a pasty wet snow. I'm not on board with this one for my area...too fine of a thread the needle for here and with models still ranging from tracking right on the coast to well off the coast there is just as good a chance this just barely misses than threads the needle for a win. We shall see.

Someone needs to post that % chance for 3" or greater map STAT.

This looks like more than just the windshield wiper effect. Keeps trending N and W.

With sst in the N and E ML Pac shifting and the PDO changing configuration recently, perhaps we can see ridging develop nearer the West Coast this time instead of the N Central Pac. IOD is also helping this as it is dropping closer to neutral and into negative which can help realign some of the key tellies that were grossly displaced 4 weeks ago into a more typical and favorable (hopefully sustained?) look as we enter the 2nd half of winter especially later on in Feb.

It is refreshing to see some individual threats and teases showing up on some ops now during the time frame that I've highlighted. There is growing consensus that the window will be short-lived however with a +NAO gaining legs after the 13th. We'll see how that plays out. There is no guarantee that we score during the favorable window so we better hope and keep fingers crossed as the picture gets muddled irt where we head after this period. 6z GFS shows how we win, 0z CMC shows how we fail. Think we need to see how this weekend pans out before moving on to specific threats 10 days out in such an active pattern. With all that said, the window Feb 6-14 (might shave a couple days off the tail end after some more ens runs if they continue to show transient looks) still looks like the best hemispheric setup we have seen modeled the entire winter. Not sure that is saying much tho.

Not sure that look is a classic setup tbh but it's one op at range so take it with a grain of salt. Progressive ns shortwave near the lakes and a digging trof in the central plains trying to pinch closed an ULL while pumping heights out ahead.

The window and the blinds are open. Far way off but good to see ops teasing individual events now during this time frame. I do think we should be realistic and keep in mind that even tho a favorable window is presenting itself, we can still pass it by with nothing to show. Even in a good setup the odds are often stacked against us. I'm optimistic however but keeping everything in check. Let's get past the SB weekend tracking first and see how that plays out.