Ralph Wiggum

Bingo. Overall look solid. Analyzing precise details right now not worth the time.

Day 10 of the euro is setting up a MECS with snow already breaking out in SE PA and energy transferring to the coast. We only need cold air just cold enough....dont need temps in the single digits lol.

Temps in the 60s next week leading into the time period of focus. Hmmm.

That's a MECS setup right there imho.

Gotta get the warm days during climo to see the snow several days later.

Entire mid atlantic on the wrong side of the boundary. Shift the boundary south and we have an epic 10 day stretch. Frustratingly guidance has trended N with that feature.

At 90 hour is west and slightly s of 6z...maybe just slower.

This isnt the one imo. We in the immediate Philly burbs I95 corridor and e of the fall line are hoping for a perfect scenario with phasing at the precise place and time and LP strengthening and location in a specific spot at a specific time to incur dynamic cooling to produce high enough rates for accumulations. There just isnt enough antecedent cold air in place for areas I mentioned. Now if the 6z icon has any semblance of a clue then farther N and W high elevations might do ok with a pasty wet snow. I'm not on board with this one for my area...too fine of a thread the needle for here and with models still ranging from tracking right on the coast to well off the coast there is just as good a chance this just barely misses than threads the needle for a win. We shall see.

Someone needs to post that % chance for 3" or greater map STAT.

This looks like more than just the windshield wiper effect. Keeps trending N and W.

With sst in the N and E ML Pac shifting and the PDO changing configuration recently, perhaps we can see ridging develop nearer the West Coast this time instead of the N Central Pac. IOD is also helping this as it is dropping closer to neutral and into negative which can help realign some of the key tellies that were grossly displaced 4 weeks ago into a more typical and favorable (hopefully sustained?) look as we enter the 2nd half of winter especially later on in Feb.

It is refreshing to see some individual threats and teases showing up on some ops now during the time frame that I've highlighted. There is growing consensus that the window will be short-lived however with a +NAO gaining legs after the 13th. We'll see how that plays out. There is no guarantee that we score during the favorable window so we better hope and keep fingers crossed as the picture gets muddled irt where we head after this period. 6z GFS shows how we win, 0z CMC shows how we fail. Think we need to see how this weekend pans out before moving on to specific threats 10 days out in such an active pattern. With all that said, the window Feb 6-14 (might shave a couple days off the tail end after some more ens runs if they continue to show transient looks) still looks like the best hemispheric setup we have seen modeled the entire winter. Not sure that is saying much tho.

Not sure that look is a classic setup tbh but it's one op at range so take it with a grain of salt. Progressive ns shortwave near the lakes and a digging trof in the central plains trying to pinch closed an ULL while pumping heights out ahead.

The window and the blinds are open. Far way off but good to see ops teasing individual events now during this time frame. I do think we should be realistic and keep in mind that even tho a favorable window is presenting itself, we can still pass it by with nothing to show. Even in a good setup the odds are often stacked against us. I'm optimistic however but keeping everything in check. Let's get past the SB weekend tracking first and see how that plays out.

I'm definitely not sold on any long duration deep winter look. Seems everything is progressive after the 'window' with a return to a +NAO, +AO, and a building SE Ridge Western trof regime. But who knows...sometimes the -NAO can be stubborn to kick out this time of year once it gets established.

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Still getting some sweet neg NAO looks showing up between Feb 6-14.

It absolutely used to be true. But I read a few months back that this bias had been corrected. Never was sourced so it may have just been conjecture.

If this HL look were to verify and stick for more than 2 days we would undoubtedly be tracking some major potentials.

I am a get the cold in place first person.

Yep more amped but = warmer it appears. Yet another solution.

GFS no doubt going to be better than the 0z icon....maybe better than 18z GFS as well.

I thought we had a convo back in the fall that they fixed that bias?

Did PD2 500mb pattern have a rather significant SE Ridge? Or am I thinking of some other significant past Feb storm?