Ralph Wiggum

Have been barking about the Feb 6-14 period for quite a while now as being the best pattern we will see so far this year. Key tellies are still there and moving closer and not staying put in la la land. Positive PNA, -EPO, -NAO, neutral to neg AO. Cant get specific about storms BUT the ops are beginning to bark at this period now in addition to the ens means. This period is gaining legs. I will take a 1 week window with 1 or 2 threats. If we can lock the pattern in for longer then that is a bonus.

RIP Kobe. Philly's own and one of the GOAT. Unbelievable and so sad.

Models picking up on a sneaky little system Thursday into Friday. Potential for a few inches of snow for some. Something to watch.

Jma ride it

Oh Canada....

0z icon is raising an eyebrow. Suddenly much colder with 2m temps I95 n and w below 32 entire event. Stalls storm near Cape May and is a classic look while getting captured by the ULL.

I did a full tuneup on my mower today. Pretty much ensures a late winter dragging into mid april now. Funny how when I tuned up the snowblower in mid Dec things fell to pieces with the pattern. Unreal.

ICON next weekend says hold everything.

This winter took one look at the "Winter of Azz" last year and said 'Hold my beer!".

Should have read ens not end, my typo

Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS.

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience.

I wouldnt be worrying much about temps on a day 8-10ish threat tbh. It isnt overwhelming cold but just cold enough and primo climo time. There is also ridging just to the N pressing the storm track just underneath us. But this track during prime climo will work. Many were saying too warm at same leads during the ice event last week where we ended up never getting above freezing. Again I would be watching the overall setup and 500 trends which are encouraging for a LR system right now. Feeling good where we are heading as Jan winds down. There is so much energy rolling thru after 120 hours I urge caution getting too caught up in op to op runs right now. Those shortwave wont be sorted out for another 3-4 days at least. Strong potential is what we have right now. This look will work btw:

Guidance is honking for the Jan 30-Feb 3 period. Extremely active flow and PNA ridge developing out West, ridging to the N, strong confluence, and stj undercutting the PNA ridge out west.. No way guidance will get this hashed out for several days but this looks like a solid period for some sort of signficant storm in the East. Definitely has my attention.

Disagree respectfully. I've been saying for a bit that things turn for the better sooner than later. I am liking the Feb 7-14 (give or take a day either side) alot and there are strong signals on the ens means and even individual members as well as the cfs weeklies that winter makes its appearance finally. PNA ridge, signs of ridging near the NAO region, breakdown of AK vortex, and signs the AO may even try and tag along for some fun all the while the stj and njet are loading up with disturbances. Sticking to that for now until I see a reason to back down. I've given up on MJO, IOD, QBO, SOI, AAM, and other tellie indices for now and am going back to basics. Looping weeks worth of 500mb charts are actually providing more of an idea of where we are headed as opposed to the computers spitting out index numbers and values. Just my thoughts on that. Those indices are useful but they are not working out for LR forecasts this year nor last. Simplicity rules. The question imho is whether we sustain that pattern thru mid March or it is 1 week and out. Tbd.

Striped bass/shad/herring run on the Delaware River in the snow.....again. Cant wait!

Isnt this where we are now ie 7 headed towards low amplitude 8 near COD?

This ^^^ MJO forecast was very good. Unfortunately your thinking of this correcting out and I to favorable looks for a pattern change isnt working out. Looks less amplified and never reaches 8 before hitting the COD. Euro says maybe it reemerges in 6/7 which isnt terrible. Should enter a period after Feb 6/7 where we finally achieve some NAO ridging and maybe a brief (longer?) winter pattern. Not over yet, but the MJO correction was a fail.

Wow, went from 12"+ down to around 1" in 12 hours on wxsim.

I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking?

Good luck with that.

GFS is wacky. Very unorthodox 850 temp progression. Not sure I recall seeing 850s cool like this with a ripping SE wind.

850s are AN as the system approaches across the board on guidance. Antecedent airmass is stale cold and flow is off the ocean from the ESE. I can see this possibly being something for higher elevations well inland but the I95 crew is going to miss out on this one. Maybe some wet flakes mixed in towards the end. Certainly time for changes but these situations where East of the fall line is hoping for cold air wrapping in faster or a system manufacturing it's own cold air seldom work out.