Ralph Wiggum

Hope your stock investments were moved to stable and you enjoyed the ride the past few years.

Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember?

Add me to the watch list. I'm not ready just yet. My threshold is Feb 10. If nothing even remotely promising on the horizon then rip my beating heart out, set it ablaze, and toss it into the Pac Ocean as a sacrifice to the SST Gods for next winter. 10 more days.....

JB

Somewhere over the next few days I fully expect all guidance to be rain with these gradient waves but the Euro will come along for 2 or 3 straight runs to get everyone's hopes up by showing frozen before breaking hearts and crushing dreams. Dr No is a real thing.

Someone here in this sub, I forget who, said that those MJO charts shouldn't be trusted they are biased warm and will continue to correct more amplified and colder in reality. I never heard of such a thing before and certainly dont buy such bunk at this time as all they have done the entire winter is corrected less amped and circled back repeatedly into the warm phases.

I like to consider myself the same but in reality, are we those parents that when the kids go to school they say "My dad is so weird, check out this tik tok he made"? Are we "cool" or just weirdos in disguise that like to have fun?

Same except mine had the fever wednesday and couldn't return until today. Jammies and painting together in watercolors past 2 days! Glad your girl is on the mend.

I agree with this irt the ens mean in particular. Thought we could look to them and if gloom them gloom usually happened and if a.small window of opportunity then that usually happened as well. The ops LR....the usual flips and flops but we already knew that. Makes sense your point about a key feature shifting throwing the whole thing out of whack such as a PNA causing the massive NAO flip on the GFS. This was more the explanation/reasoning I was probably looking for.

The weeklies are worse. But we know how they are programmed ie weeks 3-6 are a function of the first 14 days so if the first 14 are off the entire run is a moot point.

No doubt. Just like individual ens members. Thus why we have the means. Just frustrating to see the op advertise it persistently run after run and suddenly flip on a dime to a raging ++NAO and never look back. Like you said, ops can be misleading in the LR and can be consistently wrong at times before adjusting suddenly to the right idea.

I would be interested in testing this reverse theory someday as well when we have an established favorable pattern.

We were discussing the map I posted and the subsequent op map and how it did a 180 and the reasons for the dramatic flips. Nothing about a sustained NAO on the ens means as that feature was always weak sauce on those progs.

Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit). Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all.

Euro weeklies abruptly did a 180 and ended winter for all intents and purposes. The CFS weeklies weren't even that bad and usually they lead the negativity pack.

That comes after the gradient pattern winds down. Here's what happens during the next 2 weeks tho:

I thought the only greenhouse gases having negative impacts were cow farts? Eat Mor Chickn

JMA is rain to snow next Thurs/Fri.

You're debating 'textbook' look over what I posted which you stated wasnt a 'good' look. I agree it wasnt strong on the ens means but plenty of members had such a look and besides the GFS there were other ops that had similar looks. My point isnt to debate you on textbook epic vs good. More was pointing out how guidance essentially did a 180 on that map I posted. I'm sure you can at least agree with that no?

It wasnt that good? It had a block in a prime spot for several runs and on the final run before it flipped it actually remained there rebuilding for 5 or 6 days. No sense arguing what once was, but it was a good look on the ops for a few days of runs.

Same feelings shared my white flag raised a bit more recently once our early Feb window began to close. But like you said, we both still look for that fluke system. We would be lying if we said we weren't still hoping that some system that we stumble into could produce as a surprise during this dumpster fire.

The Greay Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 keeps appearing on the GFS. Maybe we can score some white rain or at least be 35 and rain rather than 50 and rain.

Remember 48 hours ago when these 2 features were in exact opposite spots?

Problem is like you said..."to the North". No real mechanism or HL block to even help nose or bleed it down into the region. It really wouldnt take much either and that's the frustrating part. A neutral ao/nao would work here. But a ++AO/++NAO wont do it.

Man, what could have been. I guess it is still possible though very unlikely. If we were just to the N side of the gradient the next 5-15 days we would have made a run at seasonal averages if not exceeded them. Almost steady train of moisture.