Ralph Wiggum

The window of chances that I alluded to is fast approaching (Feb 6-14). The window is open a crack and not as wide open as once depicted. However, plenty of waves rolling thru and cold air nearby to the N and W. If the boundary can drag south behind one of these waves and another call roll thru without amplifying we could see some chances for frozen. Ops and a few ens are hinting at several different possibilities. So I dont believe we are completely in a lights out shutout pattern. Tho admittedly chances are higher that we fail than score a big event. But we'll see.

This models showed a blizzard for the same areas for today a week ago. Guessing we trend the same way.

The window feb 6-14 has been highlighted for over 2 weeks now. It is still a period worth watching but the window isnt as wide open as it once was.

That should set up some pretty epic severe in the NE and MA.

Ahhh the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020....just a day early. Maybe it can wait for the ULL and extend one more day.

I lived in Delco which is the county left of PHL and we got crushed. Tiniest micro deathband ever. I think iirc we picked up 11" areas 15 miles away 0. What a fluke event that was.

20 years ago we could barely tease a 6-10 day outlook. Maybe we haven't nailed down 15 days or weeklies but we have come a heck of a long way without doubt.

Do you have the 3" percentage map for comparison?

Dont say I didnt warn you. Dont do it dont let it draw you in. Turn away from the light!

Your superman gloves are a nice touch.

Hope your stock investments were moved to stable and you enjoyed the ride the past few years.

Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember?

Add me to the watch list. I'm not ready just yet. My threshold is Feb 10. If nothing even remotely promising on the horizon then rip my beating heart out, set it ablaze, and toss it into the Pac Ocean as a sacrifice to the SST Gods for next winter. 10 more days.....

JB

Somewhere over the next few days I fully expect all guidance to be rain with these gradient waves but the Euro will come along for 2 or 3 straight runs to get everyone's hopes up by showing frozen before breaking hearts and crushing dreams. Dr No is a real thing.

Someone here in this sub, I forget who, said that those MJO charts shouldn't be trusted they are biased warm and will continue to correct more amplified and colder in reality. I never heard of such a thing before and certainly dont buy such bunk at this time as all they have done the entire winter is corrected less amped and circled back repeatedly into the warm phases.

I like to consider myself the same but in reality, are we those parents that when the kids go to school they say "My dad is so weird, check out this tik tok he made"? Are we "cool" or just weirdos in disguise that like to have fun?

Same except mine had the fever wednesday and couldn't return until today. Jammies and painting together in watercolors past 2 days! Glad your girl is on the mend.

I agree with this irt the ens mean in particular. Thought we could look to them and if gloom them gloom usually happened and if a.small window of opportunity then that usually happened as well. The ops LR....the usual flips and flops but we already knew that. Makes sense your point about a key feature shifting throwing the whole thing out of whack such as a PNA causing the massive NAO flip on the GFS. This was more the explanation/reasoning I was probably looking for.

The weeklies are worse. But we know how they are programmed ie weeks 3-6 are a function of the first 14 days so if the first 14 are off the entire run is a moot point.

No doubt. Just like individual ens members. Thus why we have the means. Just frustrating to see the op advertise it persistently run after run and suddenly flip on a dime to a raging ++NAO and never look back. Like you said, ops can be misleading in the LR and can be consistently wrong at times before adjusting suddenly to the right idea.

I would be interested in testing this reverse theory someday as well when we have an established favorable pattern.

We were discussing the map I posted and the subsequent op map and how it did a 180 and the reasons for the dramatic flips. Nothing about a sustained NAO on the ens means as that feature was always weak sauce on those progs.

Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit). Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all.

Euro weeklies abruptly did a 180 and ended winter for all intents and purposes. The CFS weeklies weren't even that bad and usually they lead the negativity pack.