Ralph Wiggum

How does the latest SPIRE look?

It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?

I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.

When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes.

Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.

RGEM is tucked so much that it's rain to start all.the way to the LV.

Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low.

You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take.

Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:

3rd period USA-Sweden olympic men's hockey. Should.be a banger.

He should stay there tbh

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also.

@ravensrule

Hurricane Schwartz is not impressed in the least with the threat this weekend

There are at least 3 that need to be 5-posted or even banned. Let the rest of us enjoy what may be one of the last trackable events of the season.

GEPS otoh:

GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern.

My expectations remain tempered. Too many SE leaning members across the ens.

Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....

No i do not. Still too early imho. However, I am leaning against suppression. If anything...progressive system missing a full phase-capture is more a concern imo based on seasonal patterns and the Euro deterministic still sends up a red flag. Could see this hammering coastal zones and just grazing west of i95. That is our most likely 'fail' scenario.

We did it 6z bud....we did it

Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.

A damn shame this will change before the weekend. But this is absolute perfection. Enjoy:

18z aifs...