Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Convective feedback error. Jumps the low 300 miles east of Hatteras over a thunderstorm cluster. Thats the NAM we've come to know over the years.
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Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Gusty snow shower here. 40F -
Cash out!
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Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS?
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Better, yes. Ideal, nope.
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There just isnt ample wave spacing to allow this to go negative at the longitude we need. Eta: for the former MECS solutions anyway
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Hold up, Im just getting out of bed here. So we are poo pooing the Jan 15 system now, the Cape storm is losing legs, but we are on to a Jan 25 HECS? OK cool, business as usual here. See y'all for 12z suite
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Its the icon.
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Smashed his throwing hand early in the game too. No way he was 100%. Puka didnt do too bad either. They are a balanced squad.
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They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw
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So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?
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Something not adding up with those totals unless mixing is an issue.
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Surface maps on tt looked so much better. Didnt expect <1" most. Wth.
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Location dependent. Coast hugger and slow crawl, we all get some deformation banding. Farther N does better.
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Euro ai was pretty nice
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Need to see some semblance of a system on the ensembles means. There is hardly a reflection at all.right now, and thats odd with some of the deterministic guidance showing a decent storm. That in and of itself tells me this storm on the 15th likely won't be a huge deal here. Guess there's time for that to change but we need big changes with the 0z suite imho wrt the ens support. -
That looks delicious! The porter im drinking is avg. Icarus has some really good stuff for sure. Im on beer advocate under maltbeard01 fwiw.
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January 25, 2000. Modeling has improved significantly since then. The odds of a bust of both of those magnitudes today is much lower.
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So still a SECS. No scoffing at this. Isn't high-end MECS but we got time and i will never turn my nose up to SECS....ever.
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More interaction with the vortex over SE Quebec province. That thing needs to gtfoh.
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I see some 'stuff' already this run but imma let Randy do his thing and bring us home.
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114 I edited it. Typo on my part
