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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Careful what you wish for. With that epo ridge on roids, a + PNA tandem could be too much of a good thing (polar cold but dry). I will roll the dice with the epo and some cpf with a flattish negative pna ejecting waves along the thermal boundary.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Eagles are playing like this thaw....weak and short-lived.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Until he mentions 'mint'
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Always refreshing when we can start to track the end of an impending, albeit brief, shit the blinds pattern.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Nevermind. That was like claiming a model run is going to be epic before letting it finish only to see it was a turd run after all.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    How tf are the Commodes winning this game?
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Only posting it because there's not much going on next week or so. But op at range has a CPF showing up and stj getting active. Let's see what the gefs has to say shortly:
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Sounds like a hot take we shouldn't ignore
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe that system on the 15th can move into the 50/50 for a followup wave.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly. Clearly not a winter cancel run. Just for the winter is over crew, I'll drop this here
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    If you could live thru the Blizzard of 66 KU storm knowing the end result, would you stay at your home base and enjoy a classic KU snowstorm or would you travel to Oswego and endure the 8.5' of LES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1966
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends! Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    The only ones cliff diving are the folks that set their expectations higher than a cliff thus the jump. Fact is, neither of our respective regions are notoriously snowy, so expectations always need to remain tempered. Ive grown to assume every winter will be AN temps wall-to-wall with either a drought or zero snowfall. Haven't been disappointed in years.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    For anyone that wants to play along (disclaimer: i truly hate dissecting model data in the long range but for the sake of the sanity of some members...) .....this 500mb chart depicts a weak trof in the West and a flattened SER. Im not going to repeat what @CAPEand I have discussed repeatedly the past 3 or 4 days. Just because you see blue out west and red in the east does not spell disaster. Top map is the 500mb chart at 366, below that are the 2m and 850 temps respectively.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    If those are going to be the ground rules then AI can just create the threads. Scary to think that's where forecasting might be headed. The days of humans making the calls will be a thing of the past someday probably. I hope not, but you can kind of see the beginnings of that now. Heck, some of the weather apps just use the GFS output and an AI system fills in the forecast and sends it to the app.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Jan 2016 storm I think I started a week out. That was a well-modeled storm.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Take it easy on a guy,would ya? 500mg gummy got me trippin balls
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Warm front essentially
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, but that little 998 acts like a kicker to keep things moving and us on the right side of the gradient. But yeah, your map is nicer.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro has snow showers around overnight and again Monday AM.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    And the Euro has a really.nice hit jan 13
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Love this setup. Classic boundary SWFE sorta thing without diving deep into the 500mb maps. Hey @CAPEdoesnt this look like what we were discussing?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Didnt he just cancel winter for the 3rd time a mere 2 days ago?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    That's the week I took off for my 'stay'cation a couple months back, so LFG!
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