Ralph Wiggum

Wow on the euro. Hold its ground. Less than an inch most of South Jersey where the GFS has 3 feet in spots. The pros say go with the Euro. I say go with the least snowiest model. I think we all.know inside how this will play out, let's not kid ourselves. Its been fun tho.

This isnt one of those Miller storms with a wide swath of heavy snow. Rather this is a tight core of ccb making this a forecasting nightmare between a gfs solution and a nudge east and a bust. The margin for error is extremely small.

I feel like if we follow the Euro-NAM least snowy thing we are setting up for a surprise. Then I feel like if we go with the GFS we get the March 2001 rug pull. I suppose ICON middle of the road is the way to go with del and NJ being the jack zone.

All 3 of those tighten the system and because of the cleaner phase keep the good qpf well south and east though. Not sure we want a clean phase unless it happens alot sooner and farther NW. If you want the possible big dog then yes, full clean phase. If you want guaranteed low end SECS then roll the dice with more separation and the PVA precip followed by the ull/ivt stuff. What i dont like about the full clean phase is we increase the chances significantly for a rug pull last minute. Tho i suppose thats the chance we take when rooting for a big dog always.

Let's be real, this is only less than a 6 hour timing difference wrt the 2 shortwaves between being a GFS tucked bomb or a NAM March 2001 rug pull. I will forever have ptsd from that storm and I am getting similar vibes. I am strongly urging cautious optimism from everyone because 1) we still dont have unanimous agreement 2) if the euro isnt biting its probably right and 3) always go with the least snowiest model. Not trying to deb, but alot of us, especially me included, can let emotions take hold. GFS doubled down again but could it be completely wrong and the slp escape east? You better believe that scenario is possible. Ive seen the gfs hold until 12 hours prior before....it can be stubborn.

I was wondering where tf you got to

Precip shield expanded NW interestingly enough. Yes im talking to myself. Dont judge me

Looks a tick east aside from 1 or 2 slp centers that held no?

So euro-nam rule vs the gfs? Are we still following Hurricane Schwartz' advice.and siding with the superior Euro and just tossing the GFS?

GFS:

So euro has an inch in some areas the gfs has 30. Ok.

Gefs mean is around 6.5" imby. Thats pretty sweet.

Thank you for your prettier maps !

GEFS decent with a cluster west of the mean slp. Hold! Eta: qpf also increased se pa decent tick up

CMC wants to give a nod to the gfs

You guys in DC land (and others) deserve this and I am fucking pulling for y'all. Not only a warning event but a HECS AND you finally might but a blip in the void of late feb no snow land. LFG

Aaaaand the GFS holds serve. Wtf!

Seems like most guidance is honing in on a coastal hit for parts of DE and S NJ with lighter stuff N and W. Im sure we will have more wobbles but the general idea of extreme S Jersey being the jack zone seems pretty solid right now.

We blame convective feedback. Weenie handbook chapter 6 section 2 titled "but the low should be closer to the coast shouldn't it?".

Is a lottle more than a little? Like a 'lot' better?

Fv3 at 60 isnt as diggy with the lead shortwave so the trailing one has more of a chance to catch it and phase.

I was thinking that too. So.much separation between the waves heights actually rise in front of the trailing wave. I suppose that helps with the positive vorticity advection aspect but the full phase and capture is not on the 0z nam.

Nice confluence as well. Alot of little pieces coming together.

Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.