Ralph Wiggum

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also.

@ravensrule

Hurricane Schwartz is not impressed in the least with the threat this weekend

There are at least 3 that need to be 5-posted or even banned. Let the rest of us enjoy what may be one of the last trackable events of the season.

GEPS otoh:

GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern.

My expectations remain tempered. Too many SE leaning members across the ens.

Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....

No i do not. Still too early imho. However, I am leaning against suppression. If anything...progressive system missing a full phase-capture is more a concern imo based on seasonal patterns and the Euro deterministic still sends up a red flag. Could see this hammering coastal zones and just grazing west of i95. That is our most likely 'fail' scenario.

We did it 6z bud....we did it

Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.

A damn shame this will change before the weekend. But this is absolute perfection. Enjoy:

18z aifs...

Better pna spike, better digging of the sw vs 12z. Smoothed surface mean map is meh. But 500mb slightly improved.

Wow...a little messy with the ull and sw interaction but so close to a much bigger hit!

18z GFS is another hit....keeps the trend going and makes this a trackable event still.

Fwiw, JMA also jumped onboard for a storm next weekend.

Gemini has frigid cold and dry Feb 23-24 with a major winter storm Wed February 25.

7.5" snow/ice pack here. Crazy how long this has been around. Last night's event was 'technically' snow on snow/sleet on snow.

Its close at 500mb....really close to a HECS. But the surface misses the capture barely. Still nice to see across all guidance. We continue to track.

B word

Where did all the winter's over folks go?

6z gfs still honking. Primary goes to Pitt tho. I feel like this is the Jan 25 deja vu from last month:

Until the icon, jma, and cmc bite imma just keep one eyebrow raised