Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Last couple runs had hp in S Montana pressing SE. This run it never enters the lower 48 until the system pulls away.
  2. This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man! Ha! I wish I could control it bud.
  3. Problem is, the window for this to work is getting tighter. Speed up the NS and it shears out the sj wave. Slow down the sj wave and it tries to phase with ns energy too far West causing heights to rise in the se and a cutter-ish scenario. It is looking like a tightrope walk and us trying to walk a tightrope usually looks like this:
  4. But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.
  5. ^^this This is the problem we've had this winter with nearly every. Single. Threat.
  6. Looks like 12z started a trend to lose that nice nosing HP to the N of the low. 18z continued the trend. Now the cold high moves in behind the system instead at 0z.
  7. Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.
  8. Looks like the UKMET and Euro tbh. Cutter / overamped too soon gonna likely win out.
  9. 18z is a good look as expected actually......for NE. Would it transpire any other way?
  10. Burst of moderate wet snow right now. Wiggum Rule is alive and well.
  11. I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point.
  12. Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not?
  13. I saw PSU mention March 1958 and JB is on the March 93 train so we have some epic times ahead apparently.
  14. Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?
  15. As it should. We need a damn near perfectly timed ejection and trajectory of the stj sw in conjunction with confluence hanging in just long enough. What could.go wrong?
  16. More wet flakes mixing here at the moment. Looks like some more snow showers back building. We take.
  17. Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week. Eta: with that said I am still not buying what the gfs family is selling and as you know dont believe the suppressed looks at least at this point.
  18. GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Plants a trof out in the SW then subsequently pumps and locks in a strong SE ridge.
  19. If the Euro trends positive I'm all-in.....until 18z suite starts reversing any positive trends across guidance of course.
  20. But WE know how this will play out and suppression wont be the final solution.
  21. Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love.