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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly! These LR models are available to the public due their accuracy. They wouldn't release them to us if there were flaws or beta testing. So there's that
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Will await further instruction based on your 12z pbp for the 13th and later on, lieutenant colonel @stormtracker. Please advise the remaining troops of their position. Godspeed.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont disagree with this. It's always a gamble looking 3-6 weeks out via the weeklies etc. But with that said, even if the EPO ridge breaks, it isn't a shit the blinds with the TPV hanging under the NAO block which at least looks stable. Obviously we start needing more HL help on both sides the farther along into the waning part of winter we get. But I wouldn't fold just yet.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe, but are we glazing over the next 2 weeks? Just 12 hrs ago we were tracking Feb 13, a wave on the 18, then the ideal setup for the psu baby on the 24th. The good looks advertised are upon us. I'm not getting caught up too much in what happens beyond that. Maybe we hold thru the 3rd week of Maarch or maybe this is another 10 day window, who knows. But we have trackable events showing up now. Hang in yoda, I appreciate your posts.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Hang in there chief. RGEM just went S and E fringing the LV crew. Still 4 days out.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    They're dropping like flies in the main thread. Many won't make it til mid March.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Upper Bucks just got NAMd at 6z. Band shifted s from LV bullseye. 4-8" here. Hmm.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    6z nam is a good bit souther at 69hrs vs 0z. Let's see how this unfolds
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Hang in there man. We've already lost a few good ones along the way, we can't afford to lose you too.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    This is a tantalizingly close tease for extreme SE PA. Later period after the 20th remains loaded.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    For who?
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Just picked up a 4 of kbs and a 4 of cbs. Delish...both. I agree pd is in play still. Not pd3 but that's fine. Eta: this shit be expensive....need a cheaper vice.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    The problem is the antecedent airmass. Isn't that cold tbh. That's why the later threat(s) after PD hold the best potential still imo. The 13th is going to be a tantalizingly close tease outside of higher elevations imho. I could be wrong, the 0z GFS might be right. 6z barely backed off the threading of the needle for Philly proper.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    About half of the 18z eps members now give the area at least a SECS event Tuesday. A little more than half of those are MECS. I would say the Euro is moving towards the GFS. The GFS is trying really hard to score the rare win.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Doesn't mean accumulating snow but probably will see some flakes fly by midweek. After around the 10th of Feb the wiggum rule % of verification begins to drop. We r right on the cusp.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Only thing I'd like to add to this discussion...it is nice to see these threats popping up on guidance right as the upper pattern changes. Might prove my prior thinking wrong ie we have to wait to cash in. Alot of this is going to come down to dynamics/phasing time/location... especially early on. The Feb 13 threat is dependent on rates it appears. Not really a simple task, but achievable. Clipper track around the 16th is going to be dependent on 50/50 and confluence location and the building NAO ridge as it retrogrades from Scandinavia. And lastly, the PD threat around the 18th give or take is going to rely on NS phasing with the stj at the right time and location which is a function of how the NAO is oriented at the time and how strong. Again, glad to see these pop up ahead of schedule and before the period I had originally circled on my calendar. This has the potential to be one of the best winter periods we've had in a while....but keep things in check because a fair amount still has to go right over the next 10 days. Pattern after this still looks ripe and active as well.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    I see it....the NS phase the gfs is doing is good here. It was @psuhoffman that noted we wanted to see that and not the gfs way it had the PD3 systems prior 3 runs (amplifying the ns to our n and flattening the flow). This and and the euro can work and retain the pattern moving forward. Perfect! Awesome to see the ops sensing the HL blocking now and reflecting at the surface.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Been looking at this also. Biggest difference I am seeing is the orientation of the height field in the NAO domain. In 2010 that was more flat (W to E?) which allowed for a more 'relaxed' appearance where the STJ was able to come N and hit us. This time around it is a more stout look and more of a N to S orientation which pushes on the flow underneath and is giving us the suppression hints. Maybe this first wave is in fact suppressed. Still a ways out. But even if, perhaps as the NAO pulses around the 23rd and on we get the STJ to pull a little more N. Seeing no signs of the NAO completely vanishing, so that is a plus. Eta: I do know the scale on those maps are off, but even so there is still a notable difference in the nao ridge orientation. Every little bit does matter and can make for a big change at the surface wrt track.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    I know I took a break at the right time when I return and the chat is focused on Kamu's shrinking snow pile, honeybees, and sunflower seeds/millet/wild bird food. Nothing has changed from the thought I posted last week. Tantalizingly close tease 12th-15th (still think more wet than white, could be wrong). Pattern change happens at HL....stj becomes active and kicks a wave under us (suppressed?) 18th-20th. Bigger shortwave in the stj moves east after the 21st and will likely be the first legit threat for a juiced southern storm 23rd give or take. Then weeklies Continue the look into the first part of March with maybe a pattern-ending large threat as the calendar flips...give or take a couple days....but that is wayyyy out in fantasy land. Biggest takeaway for now....patience still. Not over yet.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Welcome to the discussion Chuck Yes, strong -ao at that and trending moreso past few day' progs.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    If secs threat is "guys", mecs threat is "folks", then is this hecs tease "motherfuckers"? @stormtracker?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Couldn't agree more. I haven't posted much lately but echoed pretty similar thoughts wrt the pattern progression a day or so ago in my home forum. This is going to require an insane amount of patience, especially as we sift thru a rainer (or 2?) to get closer to this threat window.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    This touted pattern change is going to require alot of patience...even more than usual. Big Aleutian low sets up around the 13th, wave breaks and NAO ridge builds a few days later in response to the big EPO ridge and +PNA that the Aleutian low triggers. I think Iceman is on the right track, but these setups generally don't yield meaningful wintry weather here until 5-7 days after the NAO pulses then starts to relax. So I could see a rainer around VD but a relative close call event as the NAO goes neg.....that system moves into the 50/50 region as the TPV wobbles around on the backside of the NAO domain ridging. Split flow out west kicks a STJ wave east around the 19th-20th......but given the progression of the pattern, realistically we are probably looking towards the 3rd week of Feb...few days after the 21st give or take, for a legit threat. That's how I'm seeing it anyway. Thats all I got....back to taking a break. Patience.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Anyway, thoughts on the AFC game? You folks get to watch the Ravens each week,we don't have that luxury in PA. How do they match-up? Is KC really an underdog here? I like The Ravens today but want to hear why they are going to beat KC. Is their D pretty good? Secondary vs linebackers etc.
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