That's what I'm saying...this is really all or nothing imho. We are either going full-on phase with the tpv at the proper time or timing is tucked and we get a minor/moderate event that scoots ene as it grazes us. The latter would fit PSUs thinking also ie Nina climo, big storms, seasonal trends etc. If I had to bet I would also side with the latter. But once the tpv is in play, all bets are off.