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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Bigger bust potential imho is coming in under the 4-6" for SE PA, not above that. Like ice said, we enjoy. Might be the last for a little while. Kids have a damn virtual day tomorrow. Most of us here were lucky to have a actuual snow days when we were young.
  2. Fox29 seems a bit aggressive too. Hope these latest mesos s shifts/drier are just the windshield wiper effect and not reality.
  3. Something to watch later next week during the 'relax' pattern as it starts to transition. Several ops and ens members have been hinting at a well-time HP moving along the NE with good placement as moisture runs up from the South. Would take a good bit of things to go right, but since guidance had been hinting figured it was worth mentioning at least. Here's the GFS depiction:
  4. Hrrr is 4-7" 3k targets Baltimore and pts south of the Mason Dixon Fv3 is a non event 12k is 1-3" Pick your poison. I choose a #1 with cheese....whopper time!
  5. I posted something similar in another thread without being quite as blunt about it, but was told it is a workable pattern and would just take some unconventional methods to work. Feb 15th - 26th is where we have our next legit shot after the light system Friday. Then lights out after that.
  6. Pretty much....at least to start out. As Chill noted, we probably dont shut off the stj but it gets shunted S and we wait for the relax or some renegade NS system. Better than a shit the blinds look, that's for sure.
  7. Yeah, a bunch of afds from regional stations were saying this was either a dc-philly target or a philly-nyc target, so either solution has us getting something. We are a snow town after all
  8. Did you kill the original thread and start the new one? This is the range
  9. That is actually too much of a good thing verbatim. Though with the +NAO might wash. We just can't know.
  10. Not bad for a model that is generally conservative with qpf.
  11. That's one of the better honks from the super LR models of the entire season. The lower Atlantic side height tendencies have been adjusting N. That is right where we want it.
  12. And you can glean that from a weeklies or monthly model thru March?
  13. RGEM is amazing for the area for Friday....regionwide 3-6". The good trends continue.
  14. It's a damn shame that frontrunner energy zips on thru essentially detached from the ULL vort. This one had alot more potential than many think. But I also think many here will be quite happy with another light event....a snow-on-snow. Save Feb for the big dogs. It is sort of funny tho that for 5 weeks we get deluge after deluge, cold air comes in and they vanish. Again, we take what we got, no complaints. Just funny.
  15. I ask because I remember @brooklynwx99 and I think @CAPE noting hiw this period (at least 7 days ago) had all the keys pieces for a KU except the STJ wave. I see there are hints now that the TPV wants to try and phase it. My inner weenie was wondering if some sort of upside surprise is completely off the table? I would assume guidance would have thrown us a bone already given this is under 66hrs now.
  16. How much potential upside does this next threat have? Or have we already capped out on guidance?
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