Ralph Wiggum

Agreed. Used to joke that this was just another old fart like most of us, but this gent has taken more notes over the years than most of us combined.

100% friend! I have the winter at a solid B/B+ right now. Only factor not placing this winter into the "A" category is I am at avg snowfall for the season. We've had the cold, we've had the snow cover, we've had the very brief "thaw".....get me above avg snowfall and this winter becomes "A" class.

I can say this with certainty....we are not finished wrt snowfall for this winter. Questions now are....clean storm? Thump to taint? Light events? Big storm? Im leaning towards a few lighter events and maybe a decent thump to shit as we roll into March. But those folks suggesting we are done just because we are in a cold/dry phase need to sit back and be patient. This season is very different as we have already seen. Analytics suggest a big storm isnt the norm in a Nina, but I wouldnt be surprised if we end with something 'blockbuster', whatever that may be. Things are reloading....buckle up folks.

Se PA deathband! Let's spread this among friends.

I mean...how could it not be. Us weenies love a little Beaver moon.

I will accept my 12 flake refresher! https://youtu.be/w2kf6xcuBhg?si=E3EtSdwHRTEuMSYu

Im ready for a slow thaw. First time since ive lived in my home the pipes in the cellar froze yesterday. Nothing a blow dryer couldn't handle but damn its cold

ICON. And Nam both have light accumulating snow Wednesday. Rgem has snow showers. Decent start to 12z.

This is 1000% coming North!! Just loop the latest nexrad

Who are we referencing here?

Several periods of opportunity on the ensembles (feb 5, feb 8, feb 10-11, feb 14-16). Icon has a raging winter storm mid week (probably wrong?). Far from a snoozefest. But go get your zzz's , we can wake you in april.

Fair. Take the op guidance with a grain of salt tho. And if im going by surface maps alone, the aigfs and aifs have been respectable at range.

If we weren't in the midst of climate 'adjustment', I bet this would have been top 10 if not top 5.

Do you ever look at the 500mb anomalies on the ensembles at range? I strongly recommend using this as a tactic and not rely on a deterministic surface map over 5 days out.

Its funny to see the pattern breakdown keeps getting can-kicked. Yet, no weenie will ever speak about it...only when we r in a shit the blinds pattern and the switch to a good pattern gets delayed. This is all covered somewhere in the weenie handbook in fine print.

Paging @donsutherland1

Whether or not we get a storm, I still consider this stretch rather historic, not "wasted".

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

Well said.

It isnt unpossible

If you go back and read the research on the 2000 storm, it was the wrong piece of energy the models were focusing on. Iirc, a wave dove into the back side of the developing ull pulling the surface low west. Alot like how the "kicker" you guys keep calling it is fying in faster and faster each run.....

Y'all will remember this post when this storm goes Jan 25, 2000 over the next 3 days. K, I'll just see my way out now

That was a Vegas thing 100% since they now do odds on HOF first ballots. He had the best odds to get it. The fix was in.

They totally deserve it