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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    12z NAM, which shouldn't be taken verbatim at this range, develops the coastal low way west of its 6z run and tucks it and crawls it N-NNE. That scenario does us no good as mid levels torch and coastal is hugging the coast. Unless it bombs out and stalls, would just end as sleet and ice whereas some guidance had levels crashing and a ccb wraparound developing giving us a 'part 2' of accum snow. Will just have to watch where other guidance develops the coastal and the strength.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Still plows that primary into the ov and slower to redevelop off coast this run. Alot of balancing out of features that yield a very similar result at the surface. Alas, its the nam at range.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    2 extremely trustworthy models at range.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Not just this but ive been watching it develop off of SC, then off of NC (this was when we were looking golden), and now develops at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay down near VA Beach. If this is the case, ie develop it farther N and W, then we need the low to go East from there. Keep an where 12z develops the 2ndary...more east is better here.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    What time does the morning euro come out?
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    AI euro drops about 11" before ending as a mix.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    6z gefs is a thing of beauty. Minimal mixing. Seems things have settled down since the pac data was ingested last night.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    6z rgem had 4-6" snow before plowing the mix line due N and turning to sleet
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GFS upped the ante:
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC does not have the dropsonde data.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I thought you were out?
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Then no I cannot confirm lol. Timestamp is different 12.23.25
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Check date on that 12.23.25
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Can.you please post the kuchera on that with a slightly more NE view?
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Off topic, but since everyone is hanging in here, icon is sending a clipper into the flow midweek with this weekend storm acting as a 50/50 and the flow jammed up.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Is that a capture on the icon between 114 and 120?
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Exactly. It seems the bleeding has stopped thus far at 0z.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    ?? We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Imma leave this right here (0z vs 18z...stronger banana high and puts that TV low right in its place)
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Confluence is displaced a little N this run with higher heights. Not sure we r going to love this. Initial thump will be nice.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Can't help but think back to Jan 25, 2000 and the papers that were written after that surprise. Models and mets together were focusing on the wrong sw feature all the way up til 36 hrs prior. Maybe we are victims of something similar here. Not sure what surprise would be in store. Just thought it was funny we sitting here not sure what we are hoping for, same date 26 years later, same dilemma.
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