Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Thank you @mitchnick Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule?
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Agreed, mid-month onward likely best chances setting up for an actual secs/mecs tracking window. Great explanation of the progression as usual.
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None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range?
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I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days? GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub.
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@stormtracker, you got this?
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GFS op has actually been most consistent with the feb 5 mix thump thing tbh
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Feel it is wise to focus on short and medium range and not too much on"looks rainy for 3 weeks" type guessing. Models are really jumpy right now next 7 days but the gfs op continues to be rock solid with a mixed thump next Wednesday going to rain Thursday (maybe) before slotting. Then looks very active after. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
GFS is hellbent on a wintry mix here next Wednesday into Thursday -
Totally agree. We would need a series of events to collapse for that scenario to actually happen. The pac jet retraction, the scandi ridging, the mjo progression...even the swe all are in favor of a return to some form of 'deep winter' as we advance thru Feb.
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Just want to note, the SER has been kicked down time and time again this season, so we do have that going for us. With all the other tellies signaling a decent -ao/-nao mid Feb forward, I think the scenario I mentioned is slim. Just presenting a different perspective of the scenario possibilities here.
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Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.
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We are definitely in a lull/reload when we are debating teleconnections 15+ days out. Watch something sneak up now mid range and the warmup get muted.
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Coastal plain. Yeah. But you didn't mention that in your op
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March 13, 1993 March 1958
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Some of our largest late season storms were + nao phases.
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I'm a firm believer Pac side > Atl for snowfall potential. However, If you are big dog hunting a NAO ridge certainly helps. But yeah, we can score in a -NAO. Just keep the cold air source (-EPO?) in tact and the SER non-raging.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Euro has temps in the low 60s around Feb 6. Those around a while know I get giddy when we touch 60 during peak climo! Oh, euro also has a snowstorm following the torch -
Getting the feeling that we should enjoy the next week or so. Backloaded winter with substantial tracking inoming?
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A wave you say?
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Gorgeous Bermuda high as depicted. Shorts and tee shirt weather.
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Fuck Mahomes
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As an Eagles guy I really dread having to face Daniel's twice (or more) a season....and they will only get better
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I was messing with ya lol
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This is classic Ji....cancels winter and comes back as soon as he cancels. Cancels the Commanders and....
