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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    I agree with this. As always once all energy is better sampled at around 3-4 day lead is when we generally see sudden changes with the inevitable shift. Enough ens members in all 3 families suggesting stay tuned even farther N. Like I keep saying Carolinas up to S NE very much still in play. Minor sw changes yield large surface changes and we deal with this every time we track a phased vs non phased system but this one also has the wrench of a stall and 3rd lobe of energy trying to work into it.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Last 5 consecutive gefs runs clear moves to the north. OP models struggling. Going to come down to minor changes at 500mb. Likely wont be nailed down until the hires models get into 72 hr range imho. Still 5 days or so to go with this one.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks identical to several of the phased EPS members fwiw
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC now phased and tucked surface low. Amazing what some minor changes aloft do at the surface!
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    18z GEFS honking...big changes. 50/50 low....check. NAO ridging....check. Potent sw in Miss river valley undercutting confluence as it pulls out....check. Flow backing ahead of sw.....check. Developing PNA ridge.....check. Closed ull in Gulf of Alaska pumping a -epo...check. Nice signal for a deep storm.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Not sure I agree that this looks "bleak" at this time with 6 days lead time.....that is an eternity with enough hits on the ens and a potent cyclone literally right on our doorstep on several ops.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    False or not we take. Looks like euro
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Btw my last post was irt how we will probably see 2 camps for a few days with the coming threat and a roller coaster type run of models where subtle 500mb changes will make for big surface changes basically supporting what a few of the knowledgable posters have been saying here . We will probably not see such a short range change as we did 18 years ago but at the current lead time with the next threat I expect sudden shifts from suite to suite until we get within 84 hours or so.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Y'all should take a look at some of the similarities between the coming threat and Jan 2000 irt slp sliding off the SE Coast barely missing a phase and the actual verification where a phase just barely happened and allowed for quite a change in storm track. Sort of what we r seeing between say the Euro camp vs the GFS camp. Some minor timing diffs aloft are creating 2 specific camps....non-phased and southern slider vs phased and farther N and closer to the coast. Not uncommon and the only reason I mention "that" storm is because of similar surface progs and location and how we are now talking possible phase vs non-phase with thus one. I also spent a fair amount of time studying that one and how many of us missed it until about 36 hours or so lead time.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Not going to post the individual maps but the EPS have many members that are huge hits for our region...several I95 hits as well as several big ticket NW crushers. This is obviously in response to the Euro phasing that we saw overnight. CMC is a phase, Icon was a phase, and the ukmet was looking to go phased as well. There are still timing issues irt to confluence up north and just how far the slp can crawl North but those differences are very much expected at this range. Some minor diffs at 500mb are making for big diffs at the surface. Almost reminds me of a storm we had in Jan 2000 where models missed a final small sw and were showing slp headed off the SE coast but that energy which didnt seem like it would have a large impact caused a phase off of SC and allowed the system to phase and pull almost due N. No I'm not calling for a repeat just noting how at this range without sampling all sw's we are going to see 2 camps between a southern slider and a coastal crawler. Wouldn't let my guard down on this threat especially given the overnight runs. GFS family is in it's own camp for now.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Climatology for early Dec says your beliefs are justified. Not to say HECS dont happen still but I'm right there with you.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Wouldn't say never on this one. Compare this run to last nights 0z. Slp over Bermuda vs Slp East of Cape Cod. A phasing system changes the entire potential N of the M/D line. Not there yet verbatim but with 6-7 days to go?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. Places from the Carolinas up thru part of S NE all very much "in the game".
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Definitely a marginal setup but potential is there still....strong 500mb signal.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is a Miller B bomb over Hatteras. North of 12z. Details have plenty of time to nail down but signal still there. UKMET looks identical thru 144 with slightly more SER reflection which would likely yield a farther N look.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Need someone to mention early December SSTs now and ruin our fun.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Stacked slp creating its own cold pool on the W and NW flank. More UL energy diving into back and storm stalled. Classic.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    There is cold air to the NE but departing. Timed properly drawing on a NE flow would be colder where it mattered. Details to be hammered out over the next 6 days. Saw what I needed to see anyway :-)
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Warmish
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro and Ukie mirroring each other thru 144. HP over PA and slp near NOLA. Looks like classic Miller B setup incoming.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Depends on which model u r looking at. Fv3, cmc, and icon all have just enough of a SER reflection at the right window to help nudge the surface low farther N than say the gfs which is flat. Been watching this feature for a couple days now.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS op and GEFS clear outliers ftm.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    We finally found Doctor Seuss' long lost cousin.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    0z Fv3 came N and has us right on the fringe now, CMC is a MECS, Icon is a driving rainstorm, GFS southern slider. Far from being nailed down. Signal still there for a significant storm.
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