Ralph Wiggum

There are quite a few clues that are showing the PV setting up shop in SE Canada and completely overwhelming the pattern with cold but very dry for us. CFS doesnt even return anyone from the Mid Atl on Northward to N/AN precip until April which would be a crummy cold wet spring pattern. Again this is all speculation based on modeling but yeah, unless the PV split aligns just right it could be quite a problem and negate the El Nino effects basically.

Fwiw the latest CFS monthlies and weeklies are bone dry in the East after next week except for FL.

They just started nfl games in London a few years ago so the Lucy football yank is still in its infancy stage over there but I see the learning curve is likely very small.

I remember Schwartz for calling out weather conditions in some of the most obscure areas in the country. "Hello friends in Chengwatana, Minnesota where we hit a balmy minus 15 farenheit today for our high temperature" lol.

I made a post in the Mid Atl forum a few days ago about how it's funny when most people "punt the rest of December" we have seen the most threats showing up but when an epic pattern shows up we cant buy a snow shower lol. I know it's a different location but still. This period has been on my radar for at least 10 days now. Doesnt mean it will produce but yeah something to watch.

NAVGEM has it FWIW and several gefs and geps individual members have it.

Third euro in a row with snow here on Xmas.

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/polar-vortex-may-be-on-the-horizon-scientists-warn

I got nothing.

It's funny how during epic patterns we cant even seem to buy a threat the past few years yet when the pattern is horrendous looking and everyone punts we get several threats showing up.

NAM has a dual-low scenario now with the late week system and this is something several ens members had been hinting at. Takes first low off the GA Coast then NNE just West of Philly while a second low develops over GA. You can see at 500mb how there is energy just pouring into the trof between 72 and 84 hours+ What a difference in the evolution of this over the past few days:

Now we have dead bunnies too. Fml

First long range fantasy blizzard of the young season. 18z FV3 says Happy New Year!

Many many innocent puppies have died a cruel death at 18z. Eye spy a pineapple connection.

Fv3 now has the low over philly....quite a shift in track. West of Pitt to 15 miles West of Philly in 1 run.

This will likely still end up as a cutter but will be curious to see how far West it cuts and when/where a coastal transfer takes place. At one time this was running West of the Mississippi River and not even redeveloping like a Miller B. Then models moved to a transfer over new England. Now some guidance has it South of us (at least some ens and one ops) much like the weekend storm we just experienced. Interesting?

Here is a clearer look at the ridging trends in the NAO region and around Nova Scotia over the past 4 ens runs from the GEPS (GEFS and EPS show it but not as clear). Disregard the lack of the closed ULL on the GEPS.....typical bias. With that blocking it is inevitable the ull closes off:

Regarding the Thurs-Fri system you can see a notable move to more of a SE shift in track as we have witnessed with a few systems this fall as lead time has shortened. NAM at range has the slp SE of Apalachicola FL whereas the GFS and FV3 have it running the Mississippi River. Of note, the Euro is also closer in general placement to the NAM at similar times as are the NAVGEM and UKMET vs the GFS family. Ensembles show clustering of low placement well S and E of mean center also but once we hit 90 hours there is a muddled look between which camp is correct though again, looking at the trends over past 3-5 days it has been to push the system farther S and E. Curiously, the NAVGEM has the slp track over Cape May which is somewhat not surprising given the model biases but is still fitting in with the general trends of more ridging at higher lat and more of a SE track as lead time shrinks. Might be one of the few repetitive trends that we will see this winter and *maybe* that NAO ridging, even if transient, pops up more often than not and can help us out as the season moves forward.

Shame 850s are way above normal prior but the storm trend cant be denied. Even the last frame (the most recent run) the positive tilt to the pna ridge would want to adjust the system farther East. Weird to see models driving the slp right into the block almost due N though I am seeing signs of a Miller b transfer on recent runs. I suppose there is a weakness that it is trying to work N into:

2019 is going to rock!

Btw this is so close to being something 'better'. Doubt it happens but did look at run to run trends and I am seeing better blocking in the NAO region and the slp pulling out of the 50/50 area has been slightly slower to budge each run. That damn full lat WAR kills us tho. If the SE ridge wasnt drawn into the NAO the system would be allowed to undercut the area and *maybe* be more wintry. Big bomb of a storm tho so who knows....the trend has been to slide these sw's more S and E so we'll see. Havent seen a gyre like this tho yet this fall:

Just playing devils advocate as their isn't a whole heck if alot to discuss otherwise.....but basically what you're saying is that it will probably get colder during the coldest climo time of the entire year? Isnt that the same as someone suggesting it is going to get warmer with afternoon thunderstorms in mid July after a cool June?

Euro op, GEFS, GEPS all suggest otherwise. Not saying they r right but definitely not any overwhelming support for the control run u posted. Mid Jan thru mid/late Feb is our time if we r going to cash in this season.....at least based on past history and climo.

Looks more like an overrunning setup to me with waa out ahead of a cold front. And that signal, while not crazy strong, hasnt changed.

Volatility. Just made a lengthy post regarding this in the philly sub forum