Ralph Wiggum

So if they/we are having an anomalous string of 'bad luck' does that not raise a 'red flag'? Not trying to be philosophical but they do go hand-in-hand no?

I think the other frustrating aspect at least for me is many of the pros on the board said we will be into a step up process if not by now then very soon BUT even with that said there was confidence that guidance would start spitting out unicorn digital snowstorms and just some sick snow solutions but instead over the past 30 hours we have gone backwards. It's a pit in the stomach when we cant even buy digital snow but ridiculous positive temp anomalies start showing up instead. Like we say the weather will do what it wants and it is what it is but it's still somewhat disheartening....and that's a fact.

Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing?

CMC has 2 wet snowflakes for us in LR this run so that's good I guess

Alas....the GFS op has 2 chances for anafront wet snow TV. Those usually pan out nicely

Right? How we can put faith in anything this year is beyond me whether good, bad, or indifferent. Purely speculation. I personally dont ever recall anything so flip floppy. It was LR struggles for a while then MR now it's the short range. I can only assume the current SSW is what is causing this? I had read this strat warming is entering unchartered territory and historic levels of warming given the time of season. Doing a heck of a number on the MJO as well. Wild stuff.

Anafront snows rock! And that strong hp behind wont rush things thru either. Soil temps look to drop tho so that's a win.

60F when the ball drops? 60s on NYD with 70s approaching S VA and mid 70s to near 80 in E NC? Maybe we can put a Wiggum Rule into effect? Tho as I said before generally January 6-Feb 7 will yield the 94% success rate. Drops off significantly (exponentially) on either side of those dates.

Agree 100% with this. Nobody is saying anyone is wrong and nobody is pumping their chest saying they themselves are right. Especially given the current calendar date. My post about analogs, MJO, etc was more of a things dont always go as planned type of thing and definitely not a personal attack on you or your forecast. I'm VERY optimistic of a pattern flip based exactly on those indices etc I noted. I am also very skeptical at the same time as it is difficult to look at the current conditions and recent pattern history but have your mind tell you that change is definitely coming.

Analogs-like snowflakes no 2 are exactly alike MJO-somewhat a crapshoot. See Newman's post in the philly forum on MJO progression and how forecasts have been misjudging amplification and delaying our approach to the promised land Guidance agreement-doesnt always mean they are right just because they agree. We can agree to be wrong...agreed? If forecasting was only this easy we would all be pros at this. It's what makes this hobby intriguing....the constant lessons we learn everyday.

Thanks for posting this. You are more knowledgeable on those indices so I appreciate when you contribute your understanding of the SOI etc to the discussions here.

Ditto. I like to consider myself a speculator and it's essentially only a guessing game for most of us hobbyists. The discussion, friendly debates, and analysis are what make it fun. Well, that and the payout when we cash in of course.

I thought that was in response to the typhoon over there no?

What time do the weeklies arrive?

I thought 'take a step back' was banned? We now say 'crap the bed' or 'abscond', right?

I dont know what happened irt guidance over the past 30 hours but something is being picked up on and it isn't good imo. Not sure if this SSW and PV split is the culprit or the NAO ridging is back to looking transient but those steps towards an epic pattern are beginning to step back and be pushed farther out in time on both ens and lr ops. Snowfall means have backed off significantly thru mid Jan and a PAC dominated temp regime is now showing up. But before anyone points out 'well u just said a few days ago how the LR models are struggling ' I completely realize this and know it can change back. I am just discussing the pattern and sudden changes that are showing up. What I dont like admittedly is how the decent looks keep getting delayed. Temps for mid month....oddly the ops have been performing better than the ens means so go figure:

Calm before the storm? Eerie vibe when a 384 hour op model cant even throw us a flizzard at any time during the entire run in prime climo. Jan 20+ is going to rock

FV3 is apparently the new Lucy. Im so thrilled we are retiring the gfs for this piece of work.

Patience. All signs including magic 8-ball point to better times ahead as we approach the 3rd week in January.

Patience

Nah man....the place is pretty incredible. There r a few around in this subforum region. https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g41298-d1571525-Reviews-Fractured_Prune-Ocean_City_Maryland.html https://fracturedprune.com/hand-dipped-doughnuts-menu/

I thought the Fractured Prune was the premiere donut spot down that way?

I think u r right. Yeah its weird not having that old reliable friend in your corner to lean on during these difficult snowless times

Apparently must have been a good upgrade then since weve been teased by other models but with the CMC showing nothing has actually been correct?

Another model suite another mix of solutions....cutters rule the 18z. Energy in sw comes out and phase takes place as opposed to pieces of the ull ejecting like some models had earlier. Still an interesting window ahead.