Ralph Wiggum

There is alot of optimism for January but soo much seems to be pending on the NAO which hasnt exactly worked in our favor in recent history....at least not locked in, transient at best for whatever scientific reason. Also the SSW dartboard and the PV is another big chance we are taking. Imo it's great to have a juicy stj and to be optimistic and roll the dice with that ingredient, but like alway we still require much more for things to actually play out and for I95 areas to cash in. Curious to see what transpires over the next 6 weeks specifically.

Looks like several chances coming up following the cutter later this week as we head into January. Headed into prime climo....some encouraging signals on the ens moving forward but we all know they havent exactly been the most reliable guidance in the LR over the past 6 weeks. Not getting fully invested in anything at range for a bit based on the MR changes that have been occurring. Will mention tho it appears the first trackable system we have seen in a few weeks will be Dec 31-Jan 1. Then active after that. Chances are we cash in on something ... just a matter of when.

Had some flurries roll thru here in that past hour. That's 2 Christmas Eves in a row with flakes. Amazing run! Lol.

That SE Ridge will be our savior this winter on more than one occasion. Just a hunch.

SE Ridge on Nino roids. Not surprisingly ops are bouncing all over the place. Thought this was post worthy tho:

Atmospheric memory

Squashed

So what happens in this subforum if say we are unicorn searching for this pattern that has promise and hope but said pattern change gets here like has happened in the past and it fails to produce? Asking for a friend.

This place will be rocking by the last week in January. Delayed but not denied!

Surprised hiw quiet it is here with what the Euro had at 12z.

Sounds like some sort of Star Trek jargon. Dammit Jim....Modoki's dead.

That isn't a 'southern slider' imho....it is very much like the gfs op with slp off the SE coast but majority of qpf far North and overrunning. Hybrid gradient type setup. Looks acceptable to me at this range. I strongly doubt any model has the solution dialed in.

Exactly what I was glancing at. Ty for explaining.

What do you make of the strongly positive AO on most ens during the same time? Just curious what role folks think this will play during peak climo? I recall reading here that the AO is perhaps the largest overall driver of the hemispheric pattern.

The struggle is real. Dont forget the atmospheric memory. Mother nature plays a balancing act. Yes weather is a living gender-based entity with a brain. I read it on the internet.

I'll just leave this here

The polar vortex centered over the North Pole....go figure.

It will be on our side....at least a piece of it by the 3rd week of January if not before then. Trust the weeklies. This reload of the pattern thru that time has been consistently modeled. Until it fails completely as lead times shrink I have no reason to doubt where we are headed. Becoming more optimistic daily. And like both u and psu noted, we can still cash in during this time of climo without the PV parked to our North as long as we have the PAC help. We are entering that time of climo where we dont necessarily require absolute perfection.

The 'like' emoji/tag is nice for posts but we need a 'love' one added.

6z GFS has a steady stream of frozen threats to start the New Year going forward.

Would love to put the Wiggum Rule in effect but we are about 2 weeks early. Success rate now is only 50% at best but increases daily to 94% thru early January where it remains until Feb 7 give or take a couple of days. But who knows maybe we can muster some flakes within the next 5 days...guidance says maybe Sunday night early Monday morning. Like I said 50/50 chance this week going thru my 20 years of keeping logs on this. Also never knew JB had something similar based on t-storms. Curious now to see his stats and verification. 64f here btw. Feels like the holidays of yore.

Nice seeing ya Jerry!

Nah man....that's the WW3 model.....that's forecasting a major naval battle at sea starting WW3. I feel Bob's concern here...geez.

Agree with the short range surprise thing as alluded to last week. NS is ripping along right now like last year. EPS is basically alone now with the threat as most other ops and ens members have lost it. Lots of energy moving thru tho between the 23rd and 27th so maybe we can get a quick hitter to track under the region.