Ralph Wiggum

I thought going into this Nino season that medium range forecasting would be less challenging than during last year's Nina. Traditionally guidance performs statistically better at medium lead times due to a less active NS to "muck things up". What we have seen with regards to the pattern thus far imho has been more of a Nino/Nina blend but actually with a lean to the Nina-pattern side. NS has been extremely active and progressive/transient with near constant moving pieces. My confidence in anything past 4 days or so is admittedly extremely low at this time until we can establish some blocking up top and slow the NS down a bit. We have seen this recently many times with storms that were progged to cut into the GL yet tracked underneath us, NAO blocking that looked to hold yet was transient, the AO which looked favorably negative but is bouncing back and forth with no discernible trending, periods that were supposed to be cold but have been 'mild' and vice versa. You can feel the Nino stj forecasting if we look back to the suppressed storm last week.....it was fairly well forecast in advance BUT we saw how active the NS (Nina look) was and was causing some extreme variations with that forecast in the medium range. I guess what I'm saying is guidance for the time being will likely continue to handle the stj fairly decent but it is that NS that is going to cause bouncing around/headaches and short term shifts with storminess. The overactive NS with the Nino stj might not be a bad thing AT ALL moving forward if they time favorably/properly (what else is new?). The chances for something big is probably higher than normal and the chances for that sneaking up on us us also increased. However we are going to need to feel the rain before we get to the potential rainbow with sliders (cold/dry) at times and cutter (warm/wet) at times. Just my $.02

Paul, can you expand on what you are saying? What exactly are the clear trends that you are seeing that are lining up for a big ticket winter? Only thing I am seeing is an active stj but the trend has been spotty irt wet/warmish wet/cold. Seems to be split and not really a clear look one way or the other. PAC hasn't been favorable....N Atl ridging has been very transient.....AO hasnt given us many clues. I see a clear signal and that is that we are going to need near-perfect timing and alot of luck to cash in like we had back in Nov where everything worked together. Nothing is going to come easy for us. Based on the past 4 weeks I am almost thinking that the Nov storm was pure luck and not a signal for where we are headed. I'm optimistic as we head forward but nothing on the horizon screams "winter of yore" to me for my area anyway.

We need some posts about sunspots or solar flares or wooly caterpillars or some 3-letter acronym index that nobody has heard of with unreadable graphs and colors to give us some hope.

WAR continues reappearing on lots of guidance as well. Not getting much help anywhere it seems:

This is why I have never been a fan of establishing a pattern and snowpack before Thanksgiving and find it somewhat overrated. In my experience 9 out of 10 times we have a positive look in Oct and Nov it turns out December flips over on itself, erodes any gains that were made with snowpack, then we as a whole are fighting to re-establish things which as Chill noted sometimes takes us several weeks. I'm with many tho and think mid Jan forward will provide our best chances.

Try the PA subforum....this is generally Philly itself and the immediate adjacent burbs for the most part. Mmmmm, burger.

Again, it's an eternity out there in time but I would take my chances and roll the dice with this type of signal:

Same here in Warminster off and on.

Quick post regarding the threat during Dec 24-26 give or take a day which I mentioned last week. Wont go into crazy detail as anything at this range is just speculation. However there have been decent signals showing up still for 'something' during this period centered around Christmas Day. General look is for an active NS with a trof near the GL and energy waves zipping thru and stj energy moving along (less of a trof settling in the SW look). Will come down to timing but a couple of scenarios look possible. Southern wave coming up the coast (eps, euro control, and gfs op) followed behind with a clipper or a gradient pattern with overrunning. Precip type obviously very much up in the air at this point. Suffice it to say this is our next threat window still and the looks have improved with overnight runs. Eta: Emergence of ridging in the Carribbean could be a blessing...some positives taken away. Could go either way keep in mind at this range.

We take

Dude seriously chill out. What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol.

Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol.

I think after this approx 2 week period of N to AN temps and cutter storms we shift gears finally around the 21st and I am seeing signals on some LR stuff that tells me the period Dec 22-26 give or take a day bears watching. Whether or not the better looking pattern will hold or becomes transient tbd.

Here comes our Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm moving thru the Rockies on the 23rd. It's gonna happen:

Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.

A good example of how a handful of us had this period circled since just after Thanksgiving because of the pattern looks on the LR ens. Globals currently portray basically what we were looking at....+pna, nao ridge, 50/50 low, stj energy passing below us. But this is a prime example of how a meso feature or 2 embedded within those good looks can screw the whole thing up. You noted these features very well in your post.

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Is that another suppressed S VA, Carolinas hit at day 9-10 on the Euro? That's where we want it at this range right? Eta: nm....too warm everywhere

I have my fork ready. 18z runs are the most important model runs since, well, um, 12z

In a nutshell, until I see actual changes in the pattern and not just what weeklies, monthlies, or otherwise show, I like sticking with current patterns. Im not necessarily a member of the "atmosphere doesn't forget" club, but there is some validity to that as you can attest to, ie, patterns.....they are patterns because the tend to repeat. But even with the Ninos we have seen since 2000, it has been hard to get a -NAO to really stick like the old climo suggests. Climatology averages change over time as you are aware. So based on the decadal pattern we have been in (which could change so I dont sound contradictory....but "when"?) I think the NAO ridging will be transient again. My discussion was also not about the NAO necessarily breaking down but more about how the weeklies and monthlies have this feature trying to lock-in and how epic patterns on progs such as this usually in terms of real weather require a breakdown or relax to get a big storm. I completely agree that to have an AN snowfall year we dont NEED a HECS......heck (no pun intended) we dont even need a MECS or a SECS. Alot of us along I95 can nickel and dime our way to N or even AN. As far as the WAR, it was a feature most of the summer which isnt abnormal BUT I noticed this feature held on longer than usual and when I gathered ideas back in Oct to form an outlook we were still dealing with this off and on. Maybe I have a bad taste still from 14-15(?) where that feature was a common theme....forgive me if I am referencing the wrong season btw. They tend to blend together in my middle age And yeah, I could totally see a squashed pattern as well especially if the Atl remains flat and somewhat progressive tho other factors like a raging EPO ridge among others could overwhelm us with too much cold at times IF the LR stuff has any merit.

Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)

Well said. But I'm pretty sure Ji posted that he expects no less than 3 HECS for the region this year

I hope Im wrong too. I love snowstorms and love tracking them as much as anyone. If u read my outlook I'm not calling for a shutout this winter just BN in my area....not the much AN alot of folks had gone with in their outlooks.

I agree. My original post was banter that, and I should have been more specific, that alot of folks equate an epic pattern with an epic storm. Doesnt usually work that way.

Transient neg Nao and war were my biggest factors that went into my outlook. Wasnt an overly complex outlook either. I see the positives....I see the AO tendencies. By I also see the neg NAO that isn't timing properly with the PAC. And this isn't new.....this has been a decadal function. The tendencies have also been to pop a WAR that has either led to tracks, N and W, tucked coastal surface lows, or flattened when we get a stj entity moving across. Was hoping this coming storm would set the precedent for winter but this keeps repeating itself. I respect and admire those that have knowledge of alot more teleconnection and atmospheric factors than I (SOI, GLAM(?), etc) and factor those into LR forecasting and such but sometimes dont you think as a whole too much info overload makes things more complicated than perhaps needed? I'm probably completely incorrect about anything I've said....I learn new things every single day about this hobby. I'm hoping my outlook busts this year like my optimistic approach on this coming storm looks to have. And you know me (I think). I used to be a tool though many will argue I still am lol, but I also admit defeat and if I'm wrong while also not pumping my chest if I score a win like I used to 15 years ago. Just my thoughts. Cheers.