Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Possibly. More spacing/wavelength between systems is usually better for development.
  2. Precip shield is ragged as well. Meh. Bring on the next threat.
  3. NAM is faster to move the trailing energy East vs 12z and 18z
  4. I should have stayed away while I had the chance. Ugh the humanity.
  5. Im close to downgrading from my "first guess" but will decide after 0z.
  6. Changing forecasts from run to run is a bad practice. 3-6" for my area but im down in pa.
  7. Im going with the models shifting back west and torching the bl this run. We get the track we want but sacrifice a boatload of precip on taint and rain. Thats my guess anyway.Thinking 3-6" still for my area (leaning low end of that range).
  8. So the eastern tracks look bogus at this time. Most outlets going with a mix for the big cities which seems like a safe bet at this point. Should be far enough west that some nw burbs cash in tho. Unclear how far west this tracks attm. 12z suite should be telling. Last night people were jumping thinking everything was east....I bet people jump at 12z when things go west and show a warm bl. Just a hunch.
  9. Likely overdone with little support for this solution. Looks awesome on the gfs tho.
  10. Looking good on the GFS. And this was a Miller A but all guidance now has this as a miller b.
  11. We have the SREF West which is good. The NAM not jiving with the SREF is a red flag. The NAM is likely the outlier as the SREF has some nice clustering inside the BM.
  12. Im with ya though my gut is saying the euro is seeing something and holding firm
  13. I know it's early and we have nowhere near a consensus but I am thinking this is mainly a 3-6" type of storm where I'm located. Avg winter storm for the area.