Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ggem holds serve with a solid 2-4" extreme south jersey and delaware
  2. Gfs still holding its ground and keeps precip south and offshore.
  3. A few of the sref members have light snow knocking on philly's doorstep. Basically a non-event up here but morning rush tomorrow in delaware and extreme south jersey could be messy.
  4. Yeah alot of dry air to start. Delaware does ok this run. I wouldn't say the precip was "well south" though. Still close to being a nuisance during tomorrow morning rush hour in those areas (extreme south jersey and delaware).
  5. 12z nam close but doesnt really get it done. Moisture runs into a wall of drier air. Upon closer inspection and looking at 700mb rh I deem that this run is actually very close to something nice in parts of delaware and extreme south jersey.
  6. Only thing I will say in support of nam at this range is that its higher resolution might be keying on the inverted trof feature a little better. Lower res models could possibly be misjudging this feature. Lets see what 12z says....
  7. Go thru past 4 runs on navgem...clearly a trend to bring precip into south jersey. This is all philly forum talk anyway so I will head back on over there.
  8. Both. Progressive navgem even gets precip into south jersey.
  9. Navgem is on board which is saying alot being a progressive model. I think this is going to happen for the mid Atlantic especially into parts of south jersey
  10. Even if you get a few hours of slop I would take it in this winter.
  11. I dont think the gfs gets on board until too late....struggles with inverted trof and mesoscale features.
  12. Thanks my settings r screwed up on tapatalk and I didnt see it.
  13. Even the progressive navgem has this affecting the mid Atlantic into south jersey.
  14. Surprised you folks dont have a thread for tonight/tomorrow's mini event or am I missing it?
  15. South jersey gonna get hit, watch out! Well, guidance is heading that way anyway. Im leaning towards this actually happening and being a surprise snow event. Most systems have trended n and w this season.....most. Cold air already in place. Marginal but there. Cmc has support.
  16. NAM gives South Jersey some frozen on Wednesday. Definitely something that bears watching.
  17. With Giant club bonus I can get it for $1.77 which isn't shabby. 36f and dreary.
  18. Plain rain here in Warminster. 34F. I know I already said it but we really dodged a bullet with this one....could have been alot worse!
  19. Not sure how reliable it is but the HRRR is showing quite a bit of fzra :
  20. So you are going against all guidance basically? Morning rush will be a mess especially n and w but we should still get to the mid 30s by noon/early pm. Plus not to mention guidance continues to warm us up faster with each run. When I say many dodged a bullet I am speaking in regards to the .5"+ ice models were showing a few days ago. We won't come close to that type of accretion in our respective locales Paul. Messy and slick, yes. Crippling, probably not.
  21. DT essentially cancelled winter fwiw. Sees a pattern change to warmer and nothing to change that in the long range thru early/mid Feb.
  22. Ggem has been really consistent with getting light snow into the region on Wednesday.
  23. By the looks of it, I can safely put the generator away until next threat....thankfully.
  24. Paul models have really backed off on precip amounts. We seem to have really dodged a bullet with this though the morning commute is going to be bad in some parts prior to the flip over to plain rain.