Ralph Wiggum

This looks more like a blindfolded amputee trying to thread the needle while submerged under 35 degree water hogtied to an anvil.

You really did it now. Impending mass exodus to the Panic Room lol.

It's not like we havent been down this road and studied the mythical day 10+ super spectacular pattern to end all patterns before yet we vow that we've learned and wont let the same mistakes cloud our vision ever again. Well, here we are again. As much as the eternal optimists wont admit, things are slowly unraveling. I will be content honestly if we can salvage a 10-day window of winter weather this year. That seems reasonable enough doesnt it?

Every time an epic weeklies is mentioned a unicorn loses it's horn.

New FV3PGFS3CPOR2D2 has a similar look now for late next week as it just did 24 hours ago for Sunday. ICON is inline again just like 12z yesterday. Not buying the old Lucy football yank this time around....its like some sort of sick groundhog day dejavu joke. Until the euro jumps on board then I will hug it until 18z when guidance drives a stake thru the heart.

We are wasting a heck of alot of stj moisture and prime activity. We can only hope that once this change takes shape after mid-Jan we still have the stj component sticking around in a favorable spot.

We do very well when it comes to threading the needle. True story.....too good of a look and we usually fail so theres that.

This model also had 10" snow much of Eastern PA for Sunday only 24 hours ago.

Worst. Nino. Ever. Summer 2019 is going to be epic!

I have this very unsettling feeling that we are going to pay for all this wet weather in the form of cold and dry for weeks then a damp cool spring just to give us all a final kick while we're down. You just know it's coming. All this talk of significant pattern change....what would be more polar opposite of the (relatively) mild and wet that we have been locked into for 6 weeks?

Archambault events kick arse!

We need an April Fool's Day blizzard this year.

Randy, of concern to me are the posts not only in this subforum but others as well irt how the SSWE is in unchartered territory and we wont really know the true effects for another week to 14 days. But they mostly go on to say that things are still on track for a favorable pattern change by mid month. I dunno....sounds contradictory to me. I think the safest assumption would be if this SSWE is truly a rare event then all bets are off going forward. Going to remain cautiously optimistic for now.

I would rather have near normal temps during prime climo and peak cold rather than strong negative departures as that generally spells an overwhelmed arctic pattern and dry/suppressed pattern but that's just me. Cold is never a bad thing until there is too much.

CFS monthlies had this exact scenario FWIW but many discarded them because they were cold and rather dry in Jan and Feb once this supposed pattern change takes place. Cautiously optimistic for the time being but admittedly my optimism is beginning to slowly wane.

Really? Interesting

1mb wind reversal occurring irt SSWE.

Fyp yw

New euro weeklies are solid moving thru the next 4 weeks....progressive step-up improvements each week. Now if we can only get them to verify.

I tend to put ALOT of stock in Isotherm's discussions and this doesnt concern me very much. He literally just touched on this subject 45 minutes ago and the propagation we should expect regarding the AO. Basically we flipped December and January due in part to the MJO coupled with the unforeseen strength of the current SSWE.

Isotherms update just covered this exact thing. Trop PV over NP *should* be a relatively short-lived feature irt geopotential heights in that region: "Most of the high latitude blocking through the first 10 days of January will be over the NAO domain, as the z150 and tropospheric vortices will be displaced near the north pole, resulting in lower than normal geopotential heights there, at least initially." - Isotherm

BIG exhale! Weeklies look steady as she goes....now to just get them to verify and we should all be smiling by this time next month at the latest.

Well most of us know and are aware things can turn on a dime much like the NYE/NYD looks we have and are seeing. I have confidence and believe it or not I am optimistic even tho it doesnt appear that way. Just bored right now like most. No reason at this point to 'cancel winter'. I don't see a complete fail this year. I think at absolute worst we get a 10-14 day window of really legit opportunities but I have faith in your forecasting skills based on experience and well as all of the dissecting you have done recently and over the years. It's still very early. At least some ops had digital flakes to hold us over for the time being.

Was referencing your post irt Logan and them only having .2" this season so far which you asked if it was bad luck.

So if they/we are having an anomalous string of 'bad luck' does that not raise a 'red flag'? Not trying to be philosophical but they do go hand-in-hand no?