Ralph Wiggum

I know we all know el nino/nina and the atmospheric impacts. Just amazing to see in such a relatively small area. And the precise impact on the air temps there. Going to be interesting to see how it affect the tropospheric flow in that region and if + height anomalies continue.

If you go to the 18z GEFS in N Hemi view, change to 2m temp anomalies, and run the loop from start to finish, you can see ~16° positive SD parked over Beaufort Sea (N Alaska) that literally doesnt move. Is this the area with no sea ice? Amazing to see really. Oh, and our region avg BN temps the entire run.

If you look at the PV both at the trop and strat levels signs indicate the majority of the cold is actually going to be deep into Siberia and on the opposite side of the N Hemi. With that said, if we somehow continue to have the BN cold show it's hand with the PV where it is forecast to propogate, I dont think we will be worrying about it too much as there are signs now (really far out there but something getting sniffed out?) that CPF may establish in December allowing for the Siberian cold to follow behind. I'm sure it wont be wall-to-wall BN temps all winter....we will undoubtedly see the reloads and relaxing at times. But the signals are looking promising for more cold and less 'mild' this winter. We can only hope the looks continue.

Umm yeah, Jan 2016 one and done. Loved the storm but it was like we sacrificed so much for that storm. Literally 2018-19 seemed like things we just starting to turn around slowly for some of us. Now get that pattern in place for a couple of weeks then yeah, I'll buy you a drink of your choice Bob

Rather active pattern moving forward the next 10 days with several impulses riding the NS and some active disturbances in the stj. Climo says still a little early to get overly optimistic but all the players are entering the field that we would want to see at this time moving towards late November. A few coastal systems and a few reinforcing shots of cold air (think clippers) next week to 10+ days. If this was 3 weeks later and this potential background state can hold, some happy people gonna be posting in here.

I think we might be seeing some early repeating signs of what the background state will be this winter. Not looking like a dud, I'm pretty sure many will agree with that. Still some mixed signals but honestly couldn't ask for what we are seeing at this point.

Pattern looks active asf moving forward. Repetitive trof in NE and general ridging out West. Really optimistic on a solid closeout to the month as we approach the start of met winter. Starting to see some of the pattern drivers repeating.

GFS has the strong vortex and shows alignment between trop and strat fwiw. Not the biggest fan of seeing the cold air locked up in Siberia but I'll roll the dice with marginal/borderline temps if it means storm chances vs arctic cold and dry as a bone. I know there can be an argument made for good storms on the backside of a retreating PV but not much we can do if it sets shop over on the other side of the N Hemi in early winter. Still TBD tho obviously. Split camps as you noted.

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all unanimously advertise a similar day 10 500mb pattern with BN temp regime and the late November "warmup" delayed yet again. Low heights near Aleutians, higher heights in the NAO region and NW coast/W Canada, BN heights Northeast US. Slowly gaining confidence that this is going to be a recurring theme this season. Still a few weeks early though confidence is growing that as we enter December we are going to be tracking.

Urging cautious optimism. Let us never forget the LR ens winter 2018-19. Agreed tho, if it holds then that's a solid look going forward.

I'm not upset with the 12z GEFS:

By 144 hrs an argument could be made that the SPV is being pinched and has 2 centers but the GFS ens seems to recover quickly so much so by 180 hours has one strong center anchoring near the Kara Sea while anti cyclonic flow strengthens over AK and W Canada. TPV remains banged up but the only negative takeaway I had this cycle was by 240 the TPV has consolidated (for the most part) near old Russia. Granted, the charts are more smoothed out the longer the lead time and this is the day 10 prog chart, so there's that.

38F Warminster with flurries

Strat PV continues to get knocked around like a flyweight in a heavyweight fight fwiw.

Weatherbell subscription: $59.95/month Internet service/data plan to contribute to americanwx: $39.99/month Spending countless hours tracking wet mangled non-accumulating snowflake/white rain potential: Priceless

Smh....hey, at least you guys have Lamjack. Cant speak much for your local tv wx personalities. RPM tho bruh? Really?

Random Monday morning musings: Another cold/chilly early/mid November morning. Historical data posted in other groups strongly correlates cold Novembers with BN temp DJF in our region (more + correlation farther N and W into PA, less S). Many records broken recently for low temps....shattered even. Tendencies for coastal development off the SE Coast recently and on future guidance. Likely a function of AN gulf stream SSTs and the strong baroclinicity between the colder than usual air mass over the land interacting with said SSTs. Pattern also speaks for itself with trof established over the E and SE. SPV continues to be bullied and pushed around with the TPV splitting and not being able to align/sync with 10hPa level. Seeing PV centers near Siberia, another N Hudson Bay region, and lobe over Europe. Ridge poking N thru Chukchi Sea and into Arctic Circle keeping -AO hopes alive going forward. Hints LR of -NAO re-emerging (continual blocky theme). Aleutian Low remains a feature. Split flow evident off West Coast with one jet into NW US/British Columbia Coast and another undercutting thru old Mexico and across into the SE US. This flat SE ridge is not a bad thing moving forward imo as the pattern reloads IF the N Atl and AO cooperate. As the PNA goes - at times this sets up a gradient flow into December with overrunning systems moving across potentially. That ridge should be a lift mechanism to push precip N. If the AO and NAO cooperate and keep the one PV center in a location to advect cold air into the Northeast, it will be a good Dec pattern coming up with SWF (southwest flow) events providing snow chances for the Northeast. Again, just some musings on this Monday. Not seeing anything too alarming. Was seeing some SE ridge pops on LR ens but again it seems to be balanced but the goings-on over the N Pole and N Atl HL blocking. That's of course if the general ideas hold. Bottom line, I'm certainly not disliking the look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload in 7-12 days but we can see the neg temp anomalies rebuilding across the Eastern US again after a moderation with the warmest temps into Canada. Not a CPF look (yet) BUT like seeing the neg temps reappearing. An old sage once said, when Canada is warm in December, the lower 48 is generally chilly/cold.

Glenn, have you released your winter outlook yet? If not, when should we look for it? Thanks.

Just to add, the SPV continues to take a beating with stresses on both the Atl and Pac sides. With that said, the TPV showing no signs of consolidating long range and continues to show displacement and fragmented look with 1 center in Siberia, one over N Hudson Bay, and a lobe extending over N Europe. Not expecting wall to wall winter weather and threats but all of these trends are certainly beginning to put me at ease irt any dud winter coming. Guess we see if these looks hold and continue repeating.

Liking where the ensembles are taking us towards the end of the month. These are not bad looks at all AND we seem to be seeing some repetition and trends irt the Aleutian Low, the constant beating down/pushback and any SE Ridge, split pattern off the West Coast with no true PAC firehose theme, and of course the AO continues to be in the negative. The 18 GFS op is interesting towards the end also with a true -NAO....but that's an op in fantasyland, but these teleconnections and tendencies could be a heck of alot worse:

18z NAM continues the theme...maybe a hair more precip hanging back along the wave as the CAA funnels thru. Dont like these setups irt hoping for accumulations ie fropa with a weak wave along it waiting for the cold air to change rain over. Looks like a continuation from last winter on the NAM with a C-2" type....leaning heavily towards the lesser amounts right now. First flakes/white rain looking likely for many in PA/Northern DE anyway.

This isnt a horrible look. Much rather see a split PV with elongations and lobes rather than one that is consolidated over the N Pole and causing a persistent zonal flow across the lower 48. This also aids in the increased likelihood for HL blocking.

Going to be a winter of ups and downs (balancing act). Visits by the PV and periods of zonal PAC dominated flow. 500mb teleconnections look decent during that period. PAC flow however looks flat into the NW (250 mb jet) which is why you are seeing the AN anomalies across Canada. It happens. I dont think it will be a wall to wall PAC dominated winter like last year.

Current temp is 18F in Warminster.

Wasn't last year a good example of this? Folks were chasing the unicorn/epic pattern in the LR that kept fizzling out. Then when we finally had everything line up for a week or 10 days it was rather uneventful. It's funny how that works....more often than not it's the meh patterns that produce and when we actually get the NAO working in tandem with the PAC and AO is when we get our KU storms 9 out of 10 times. Never got the -NAO at the right time 2018-19. This year should have more opportunities to produce.