Ralph Wiggum

GFS hangs the surface low back just off hatteras as it waits for ul energy to catch up. Not much change up this way however. It looks like the odd one out still irt the wishy washy waa depiction then diving ull in like other guidance which has it farther N and moving due E or even slightly amplifying raising heights along coast. We toss?

On the GGEM it is interesting the hp ticked a notch stronger and farther s a hair while the entire storm system nudged north again.

GGEM came N and W with the coastal low. If I lived S and E of Philly into S NJ I would start paying close attention. Not sure how much more adjustments we can see to help the NW folks and if it will be enough to get us in the coastal banding up here or not. Still c-2" up here with 3" lollis seems reasonable for now.

RGEM gets moisture from the coastal unto the nw burbs of philly even this run. Is the plot thickening or is Lucy warming up with the football? I smell an overperformer.

3k NAM is soooo close to i95 with the banding from the coastal. Nice sw-ne orientation now with everything. Snj does well this run. Hopefully the trends continue....there are some nice adjustments still happening past 40 hours on guidance.

If we didnt see most other guidance trending the same I would say it's just the NAM being the NAM but yeah: ETA: hanging back and farther N

The waa will do the usual waa thing and over perform slightly. I'm more interested in the trends with that ULL feature in the midwest. If it comes east and maintains rather than get squashed S and sheared some areas may get a surprise from the second doink. Eta: probably more of a DC impact than us

I'm wondering if that UL energy continues to show up more consolidated and holds together enough to give some additional snow as it passes by. It is also farther N. Snow totals in the midwest under that are approaching 2 feet in spots. Interesting.

My interest level is slightly raised. The ticks N continue. And I agree with an advisory level event. Check out the changes on the NAM vs 6z: Eta: look back at the slp in the Miss River valley not the waa stuff

Ha! True that. I mainly meant during peak winter climo however.

We rarely get sustained neg NAO patterns. Most of our snows in the last 8-10 years have been during NAO fluxes. Like I said....give me the other teleconnections and I will take my chances with the nao index teetering back and fro.....dont need an epic nao look that is probably too much of a good thing. We will sync them up at least once before winter is out.

Quoted your post from the other day highlighting the AO tanking. I think this is going to be more of the driver irt us getting snowfall vs the nao. I actually dont want to see the nao as negative as the eps weeklies are depicting tbh. Give me a solid PAC and a neg AO which is where we look to be headed and I will take my chances with the nao flexing and moderating every few days. If anything the quasi-transient neg NAO look may actually be more of a benefit this season. Eta: I am not seeing the pattern breakdown you are referencing...maybe a final reload before teleconnections lock in thru the mid/end of Feb but not a breakdown. I see what u r saying about the LR ens and how everything has been unicorns and fairies at 15 days but if you go back to late Dec ens we are now where we were progged to be at that time. We look to finally be done chasing our tail as the SSWE effects are beginning to be felt and the SOI is settling toward a more stable and Nino favorable index level.

Basically thinking the same. There have been ticks N on guidance but the system isnt the usual juiced up type of stj system we've seen the past 6 months....of course.

Pretty sure we heard this once or twice already this season

Ty...good catch

Double doink

Nice signal

Ens signal much stronger at 18z FWIW.

Just had a chance to look over the weeklies and try to match them up with some of the other LR guidance ideas and teleconnections. Long story short as to not repeat what psu, bob, and others have already mentioned in detail.....I am all in for the 2nd half of winter. Can we fail? That's a possibility no matter what but with the constant looks and support that we are seeing chances are low. Next 10 days continue to step towards deep winter then the bottom is going to drop out in a good way Jan 20+......kudos psu and others if this works as advertised.

Most of the time we tend to agree but gotta disagree with you here. After a very brief reload in the PAC and up top next week the crap looks like it is going to hit the fan. Aside from the GFS family of models I dont think there is a single piece of modeling suggesting the good pattern breaks down. In fact it only looks to improve and there are textbook KU looks showing up more than once over the next 4-6 weeks.

GFS and FVR2D2 have been performing horribly for about the past 10-14 days. I read an article tying that in with the govt shutdown and lack of Calibrated data being entered but I cannot confirm 100%.

New Euro weeklies are out and are solid teleconnection pattern thru the end of February. They have not backed off whatsoever and in fact look the best that I have seen in a very long time. Extreme neg NAO, neg AO, pos PNA, pos EPO, extremely active stj, displace PV wobbling around near Hudson Bay. At the surface BN to well BN temp regime across much of the Eastern US. Pattern is about as loaded as you can get. Not sure how much if any fluctuation or modification we get over the next 4 weeks at the very least. As far as the Jan 18-22 threat I love the looks of the ens with good hp along and just S of Canadian border with LP mean in the lower Tenn Valley then off the Carolina Coast. Fasten your seat belts we are in for a wild ride the 2nd half of winter!

I approve

Remember when we had a stretch of model runs like this a few days ago irt this weekend's system?