Ralph Wiggum

Most mesos are showing that deformation band in the general area. Whoever gets under that as the slp stalls will see the better snows...but you already know this. That CCB band will be somewhere in SE PA.

Most mesos are hellbent on hanging the slp a bit farther S and nudging the heavier snows farther S. Southern Bucks, Montco, Chesco, and even Delco now potentially in play. Definitely nice to see trends in our favor to begin met winter as opposed to trending the opposite way. Cut those totals in half btw as most areas in SE PA will be fighting accums to starts during the rain to snow transition. Going to be a nowcast for my area no doubt.

Thru 240 on the EPS/GEFS/GEPS pattern isnt terrible. AO looks to go from positive back to neutral then negative. PNA starts then ends positive. Big EPO ridge...Aleutian low. Atl side is meh imo...nothing too exciting yet no major red flags either. Would be nice to get the NAO ridge to work in tandem with the favorable PAC teleconnections but maybe as we move thru the month. Again, thru day 10 no significant concerns and certainly not a shutout look. And that takes us closer to mid Dec so no complaints. Those day 10+ progs with collapsing patterns and PAC air flooding the US keep being pushed back for now.

Yup I went 1-3" for us. Go Birds!

How the heck do I make a forecast for Doylestown based on this...most mesos are close in the sharp cutoff.

NAM crept South with the meaningful snow fwiw. Gets the nearby burbs into the action with the ULL/CCB love.

Euro is close to something. Temps are close below the M/D line at glance. Didnt see precip maps. Eta: Better spot similar to tomorrow's storm ie Northeast PA, NY, NE...maybe a rain to backend snow

The Euro is like the grand-dad that is starting to lose it and the Ukie is like the drunk uncle that passes out before the holiday dinner.

The areas like the LV and Poconos that may see accumulating snow are in a different sub forum. The Philly area will start as a mix N of the M/D line mid morning. Turning to plain rain South to North. Periods of rain/wet snow Monday as the coastal does the tighten up. Accumulation in extreme SE PA will be minimal at best imo. Northeast PA will do well.

Both jet streams are somewhat progressive and the NS disturbance and SS disturbance remain separated on most if not all guidance. Would need a mechanism to nudge the SS to the North and/or amplify the NS....and then of course timing a phase would be the next obstacle. Worth watching but not a threat right now.

Squeeze play...under 7 days now. Bubble of hp on W North America and another squeezing over the Middle East. Looks like the warming over Siberia is legit and the SPV is getting pummeled. I'll leave it to the experts to decipher what it means but it cant be bad. Beats a strong SPV anchored over the N Pole that is stable and unpressured no?

In like with the Ukie and GGEM

Apparently all the weirdos come out of the woodwork as winter draws nearer.

WAR is no surprise in this new post-2010 type climo. Whether it feeds the NAO ridging as it had been doing much of the fall or decides to play bully and remain stationary or worse feed the SE Ridge is the 100k$ question on the Atl side going forward.

Tbh I haven't looked past day 10 on the ens except for the strat stuff which I rend to glance at. That SPV gets squeezed and almost splits Day 10+ with lots of warning over Siberia. Take what you want from that I guess. Could look worse.

What is even more telling is the sudden silence from HM on Twitter. Speaks volumes.

Biggest takeaway....the god awful seasonal/weeklies pattern continues to get delayed and is always 10+ days out....for now.

12z meso guidance showing some pingers on Sunday. Definitely trending a little more WAA frozen than the globals which can be expected as we get closer.

12z NAM looks like a slightly scaled back QPF version of he UKIE fwiw. I dont trust either tbh but it is interesting.

EPS was a nice tick S as well. Warning criteria snow up here. My gut wants to say we are seeing the windshield wiper effect. But my brain says the S trend may be legit as there is now a banana high appearing across most guidance. If that feature is real and continues to appear on future runs, we may be in business. Interesting.

Hard NOT to be surprised at the last few euro/eps/ggem/ukie runs tbh. It isnt very often that we get systems to trend in our favor.....which is why I am still on the fence irt Philly proper. If this continues thru 12z fri, it is probably time to jump all-in. The euro showing 6-10" up here is certainly something to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving. We take for now.

You back in bruh?

Old EE rule in effect? NAM looks similar to the EPS....stronger hp, colder, develops slp farther S. Verbatim would be a brief snow to rain then back over. N zones look solid for a decent event.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

Looked like it for several runs then overnight trended off S NJ/ACY.