Ralph Wiggum

Rough maps I use are meh....just widespread 1-3' DC - just W of BOS Eta: has the 2nd punch like the icon FWIW which drops ~8"-12"

JMA is 5 days late from when other models showed HECS DC - BOS....drool worthy anyway.

The JMA is that last nail that hasnt been hammered in yet I assume?

JMA absolutely annhialated majority of us this run. Perfect track. MECS/HECS. So JMA/ICON vs the world. Not sure I would lay money on those odds tho with the odds an upset would pay extremely well.

Final nail for I95 should be 0z. Hoping for a 4th qtr shift/fake punt/onside kick

3rd nail

just saw elsewhere ukmet is juiciest now of all guidance and holds ll cold in much longer. At work cant check. Can anyone confirm??

Cutter followed by follow up wave ots south of us is my call

Yep 12z was two nails out of 4 in the coffin so far.

Initially this was a HECS 5 days ago if u recall. Some guidance had 40"+ for DC. The wavering solutions have been really interesting. Eta: I dont think we are done with bouncing around until this wave tonight passes thru earliest. I could still it trending either way tbh.

I saw u mention u in Montco now? Did u relocate? I look to be ground zero here in central bucks going to be touch and go.

I think we are locked in on a far NW heavy snow hit right now. Just need to see about immediate NW burbs now etc irt ice sleet slop or snow

Here is round 2 on the icon with the 2nd coastal low it forms after the front clears. Guess it's not out if the question with the war still there but the caa behind the front making a pass looks like it is hellbent on trucking thru and not allowing further development to affect us. Icon says nah I will slow the front to a crawl and hit you guys again.

ICON 1-2 punch lol love it. It cute and always tries hard....it really does.

I agree with this but we are seeing less of the transfer type look on those models I mentioned. Of interest is the NAM is usually most accurate with the cad features and is quickly losing that idea? Might be a red flag or perhaps just a blip run. Awaiting rest of 12z but wont make a solid call based on this one run alone that's for sure. Potential is there still for quite a mess in our area.

Oddly(?) the 6z euro and 12z nam scour out that ll cold rather quickly. Less of s cad look with these runs. Let's see if 12z continues towards this idea.

6z euro and now the 12z NAM are raising heights more and scorching the upper levels. Not the move we wanted to see if 95 and immediate burbs were hoping for more frozen. Could still be a decent period of sleet but I think far NW does well here eta: ninja'd by iceman lol

People are hunting that LR epic unicorn still. Deep winter for the next 7 days is an irrelevant myth apparently.

The thing is this flip to a 'sustained neg nao'/'epic pattern' is still days 10-15 on the ens.....same place it has been for over 2 weeks now. If u go back and look at the CPC graphs u will also see the 12 day+ forecasts have been to go deep neg but the verifications have been neutral to slightly positive at best. The war has been the anomalous area where our neg nao was to develop from via migration but the tendency we saw at the start of the season is currently showing up again irt to rolling over that ridge. Eventually a piece of the war will break off and head towards the nao region but im skeptical that it stalls there and locks in based on the nina-esque progressions we have seen and are still seeing in poleward regions. 1-3" tonight then a mess over the weekend. Short term apparent weather has been much more satisfying to track this season.

I've backed off analyzing in the great detail the LR stuff for a bit, but last I saw the PV visit was transient then we moderate and have the usual Feb roller coaster with nothing sustained as the pattern and war/nao roll over continues on.

Majority of guidance zeroing in on central bucks being a battleground between a SECS and a VD 07 redux (massive sleet storm). Certainly not looking like all snow as upper levels appear to torch still. However 2m temps look cold enough to support frozen thru much of the event.

Why dont you go Saturday night and pray that it doesnt turn to rain?

Didnt you just cancel winter in the banter thread?

General tone and grammar is similar tho.