Ralph Wiggum

Browns were my dark horse going in and I plan on riding them to the AFC championship, maybe farther. KC is going to get upset also. You're welcome.

EPS has caved to the GEFS the entire winter. Crazy cousin EPS wants to cut winter short. Willing to bet this time the EPS holds and the GEFS cave.

Doctor No has risen from the depths of hell apparently

I see the SSWE is already paying dividends in some parts of the hemisphere.

The silence from @WxUSAF in the main thread is deafening.

2 years met and atmospheric science psu. Eons ago now lol. Chose to stick with my main passion (cooking) and am now a successful Chef. And no I dont specialize in weenies

Where the hell is @Ji??

No offense taken. Big pattern look hasn't produced yet. Historically when the NAO relaxes we get another shot at a winter storm. With that said the period Jan 18th-Jan 23 is really gaining legs across guidance for something. I completely understand if you don't want to discuss anything past 7 days but frankly there isn't much else to discuss. I can agree that it has been quiet. Warm and rainy tho? I disagree on that. It has actually been rather seasonal. It rains every winter even the best ones.

Not sure your location. Where I'm at in Bucks this feels like a totally avg winter. Haven't had shorts and flip flops weather like years past.

Strong signals on 12z suite across the board.

I'm slightly above avg snowfall to date here. Sure, we have been lacking the big monster coastal storms the past 4 years, but this feels like it will be an avg winter at the very least for us here. I will take that in a Niña for sure.

Got pfizer vacc'd yesterday. Side effects not debilitating but glad I was off yesterday and today. Body aches, nausea, feeling drained and weak. Slowly subsiding. Booster shot scheduled for 3 weeks. Slowly crawling to the hopeful end of this pandemic within the next 12 months.

And cranberry sauce discussions

Yes a setup leading into it at 384. WXUSAF was mentioning it.

With any blue fading fast on guidance, thinking of @Ji today during these difficult times.

It's funny ya know? We can backup into some fluke mid-Dec snow event that shouldn't even have happened given the pattern and historic climatology, yet with almost every teleconnection in a favorable spot headed into the 2nd week of January we cant even muster a flake.

Don't look at the GEFS long range

Yeah, I'm not sure why all the pessimism. Maybe it is the futility we've endured the past few years? Impatience? Or do they know something we don't? Hmmmm. Nothing has changed. Current blocking/ridging still in the AO/NAO thru the end of the weeklies. -NAM state looks to continue. Colder air finally on the slow ooooze toward the pole and eventually into our source region. We are only 6 days into January guys...not March.

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking.

This is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. Our standard nickel/dime events. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened

Well, I did say during that storm in a post here to give me that same storm track in January and we can talk. Might get my wish.

Euro loves this system. Too much lol. Over amped and at mouth of Delaware Bay. Fun tracking ahead.

We've had a few bouts of wintry weather over the past 10 days...nothing major but the slowly evolving hemispheric pattern change has been taking place. There should continue to be tracking chances over the next 10 days as well. Suppression may actually be an issue tho (too much of a good thing) until we hit mid month when the EPO and PNA begin to move colder air over into our source regions and the NAO block relaxes. I dont see the HL blocking fading completely this winter....it has become our base state. But we should see ebbs and flows with the AO/NAO as it seesaws between +/- as well as the PNA/EPO doing the same. This has been our base state of the NAM this season so far. Both PAC and ATL will play a dance and I doubt both work together favorably for sustained periods though transiently I could see both sides being very favorable for us. The nice thing thus far is even tho the PAC has been meh, it has not been completely hostile like last year. Long story short, next 10 days will provide a few more tracking chances but the real fun begins mid month onwards as the NAO relaxes and a quasi CPF begins to help our cold air source region in Canada.

PD4

Displaced Alaskan trof/West Coast ridge SSW mucked things up Nina climo March will rock SER flex at end of run