Ralph Wiggum

This is workable but alas....a LR dream and an op run. Dr No is up to it's Lucy shtick. Last night drops the TPV hammer today gone. Now a Mauler tracking under us and exploding on the coast. Hmmm, I wonder if it will be there at 0z?

I remember when that same exact forecast map had 55"+ for philly between Jan 17 and mid Feb so yeah

The discussion after seeing the 12z complete debacle should be interesting.

Approaching upper 50s now on the rgem tomorrow AM. How high can we go....I'm seeing 57 here in SE PA on this map. Pulling for 60 give it take a degree

More than likely....pattern tendencies cannot be denied. Starting to hear some of the pro mets and pattern-change activists raising the white flags sporadically.

12z NAM now supports 50 degrees+ tomorrow morning in extreme SE PA. All of Eastern PA goes to rain up to NY/PA border this run. Still cant believe rgem is leading the way.

Quiet guys....daddy's home

Fyp....upper 50s tomorrow AM (rgem) arent necessarily 'hot' per se

We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time.

Only a few degrees away from the Wiggum Rule needing to go into effect...getting warmer:

I'm removing my snowman chochki from the garden, my huge Welcome Winter flag, and putting the snowblower back in storage in the far rear of the garage today. That should do it.

Check-in daily, sure. Lots of ups and downs. I'm not immune to those swings either. I think they are more defined 2nd half of the season particularly during one of wait and frustration for many.

I dont. I am basing it off the ens starting to mute the signals as we get closer. Maybe 'clearly ' was a poor choice and I should have said 'seems/appears like' instead.

And Chuck's posts are the tangent? Eta: wrong poster

But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. Is this still completely MJO driven? Is this a Nina lag with the NS just ripping and generally progressive still?

So did the GEPS FWIW and while its the GEPS it's still an ens worth noting and not a bouncy op.

Euro idea and many others now backed off the pv dip significantly. Of bigger concern the GEPS now show my worst fear with the WAR continuing to sustain and never really progressing into the nao region. It essentially shows the same general N Atl theme we've seen off and on since Sept with the WAR often establishing itself and then just rolling over. Until that changes my area and SE are going to continue to see rainy solutions with these bigger systems while 'far' N W will cash in with sleet zone sandwiched between. If u see the pattern tendency we are doing better down here with flatter and more minor events this year....and by better' I mean c-2 or 3 inch types that are all snow. Nov was a fluke imo and an Arcbambault where we wer actually deep neg NAO flipping to positive.

So you finally conceded the war is a bigger player than expected? Going to make or break this stretch heading from late month thru 3rd week Feb imo.

Yep that was our Nov storm an Archambault event.

Those nails are firmly in place. I'm talking for imby and irt a SECS which it doesnt meet that criteria this is just a slop nuisance event. A 1-3" "thump" to sleet/fzra to rain ending maybe as a period of snow Sunday with little to no additional accums. That's my story for Warminster and I'm sticking to it.

Yup

Is that considered a neg NAO? Or a very strong war? A blend of the two? That's the kind of cold/low heights where it's so cold its clea outside but pixie dust snow flakes are falling.

Dude this is exactly what I was just thinking to myself!

I look no doubt about it. But I backed off overanalyzing every detail and wasting my energy and time on anything more than a week out for now. The fact the op is almost at that 7 day mark is somewhat encouraging tho.

Here. I dont buy it verbatim but the ens have a weaker looking neg NAO same time frame which would be a win. Slowly creeping closer anyway. Get this within 7 days and I'll start to buzz.