Ralph Wiggum

I have VHS tapes of the 2 back to back storms that month with news footage and home video material. Remember it well....nice pattern. I'm old.

Sometimes I feel these patterns and indices are being overcomplicated and possibly muddling the ability to make forecasts in a rational sense. I get the fact that to understand the science as a whole there is a need to delve deeper than the surface. But sometimes a back to basics approach isnt a bad thing. There just seems to be a plethora of A affects B which is affecting C which A isnt directly related to C but more a function of D that is equating to F that leads to G that has a profound affect on A that is......well now look, my coffee is cold.

SPV splitting. The TPV likely wont maintain singularity for long.

Cut the cord and get hulu live for all your local sports. That's what I did and it is worth the price. 55$ monthly is alot cheaper than cable and you seem to have better/more options with the hulu live.

Yep, split flow out West certainly works as the stj comes out of the Baja and the northern jet comes over the split straight out of the arctic via the PV. Hints of a hybrid 50/50 and some ridging in the eastern NAO region and Baffin Bay. Compared to where we start, to get there is a big step towards the good.

This isnt going to happen but it is showing the shutout pattern probably wont last very long.

I see nothing alarming there at all. Neutral look 'at worst' on all 3 moving ahead. The PAC is in a reload and will be meh for a week-10 days before the Aleutian low starts reestablishing and begins pumping an EPO ridge again. Not buying the TPV shifting to Santa's neighborhood and anchoring itself... not given what is happening at the Strat level with the pummeling of the SPV and squeeze play going on. And dont look now but we are seeing signals for a SWE specifically over Siberia starting in the medium range. I'm not an expert on how the strat and trop interact but I do know that when the SPV is under stress and/or there is warming over Siberia it is less likely for the TPV to strengthen and anchor itself over the N Pole as one entity. My honest feel moving forward? Enjoy this break....the pattern reload/relax....the holidays....family, friends, and a nice break from tracking (hasn't amounted to much but has been active since mid Nov). When the reload is complete in early January things are going be active and cold with plenty of tracking.

Spoke too soon? Did you see the latest EPS? Big steps in the right direction. Matches the tellie indices from CPC that look favorable. Definitely a meh pattern for the next 10 days but I dont think we are in a close the blinds pattern either headed into early January. Doubt we wait 3 weeks but 12-15 days is possible. I'm still having a tough time trusting ens means past 10 days given last year's debacle as well as the flops within 8 days this fall and early met winter.

Listening to this on vinyl at the moment. Seems sort of apropos after that 12z GEFS run:

At least we are moving the anomalous recent trends of December warmth closer to prime climo time so we can save on heating bills

It is not a bad look. Certainly isnt 'epic' but like Bob always says, epic patterns on the means dont automatically equal snowstorms. By hour 200 you can already see the ridge N of Hawaii getting squashed in favor of an Aleutian low trying to rebuild. Scandinavian ridge which PSU says is usually a key indicator of the NAO building is present. The 50/50 region continues to have lower pressures. Is not a bad look and is miles away from the EPS and yesterday's GEFS mean which had people jumping. Anad again, these developments are under 240 hours so maybe not fantasy range.

GEFS mean 500mb is very nice this morning. Maybe just a hiccup yesterday?

Just had an emergency alert wake me for a snow squall warning. That's a new one. Looked outside and whiteout conditions. Good stuff.

SE PA has a few squalls set to move thru between 5 and 9pm. Some spots may pick up a quick C-1" still it appears.

@frd Thought this SPV chart was worth posting. Clearly shows the vortex getting pressured and the repeated inability to remain as a solid anchored core. One would surmise these looks are having an impact down at the trop level but that correlative reasoning is above my pay grade.

We must never forget the CRAS....for good and for bad....mainly bad....really quite bad.

Used to be the NOGAPS. That model had a progressive bias. I'm assuming the NAVGEM no longer has that bias.

CRAS was (sadly) discontinued. Had it's one shining moment as the only model to nail the Boxing Day storm at range. It will live in infamy with other great retired models such as the NGM, MRF, DGEX, and ETA.

And in proper fashion the Flyers dominate with a 4-1 win. How sad for Oskar Lindblom tho. So young. Cancer just doesnt discriminate. Prayers for a full recovery.

Hrrr is in for SE PA squalls. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening could be fun....short-lived but fun.

OP runs that are weenie runs past 300 hours with the 384 hour fantasy blizzard don't normally work out either....so there's that.

I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.

3k NAM jumped on board