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Ralph Wiggum

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  1. Ralph Wiggum
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Quite the feature for a small area. Is that a 10" max I see? Dec 5 rule in effect lol.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny thing about this storm too....its still 144 hours out lol. Eventually it has to lock in and time start moving forward.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    How is this barely precip into bwi?? Farthest N of every op and by a fair amount. This suite was full of corrections. Better data sampling likely the cause. Fully expect more improvements on Wednesday maybe not in succession, but I've seen these corrections enough in the past to get a sense where we are headed. Fasten your seatbelts guys and gals fun times ahead.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Everything except cmc moved north at 0z. GEPS is now several big hits. Euro moved 140 miles N with lp. Expect this to continue as we get better data sampling. GEFS means qpf adjusted N quite a bit...accum snows back into parts of the region. Pretty large jumps north all around minus cmc.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Right? Looks like the low near Nova Scotia wants to pinch off and form a 50/50 and the energy near the Dakotas ready to dive into the stj energy via the pumping of the +pna out west in response to that monster ull/trof building South of Alaska. Fun to dream anyway.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    There will be some serious namming for some areas once it gets into range....you best believe that.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Starting to see more solutions showing up on ens members with LP running the coast thru S NE. If these ideas at least stick I am willing to bet once we get within 84 hours give or take some op spit out insane solutions.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Monster HECS in there skewing the mean.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    EPS are much better looking than the euro op. More later....back to work.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    12 ops are still meh with fv3 and cmc still right there. Ironically the Euro is extremely close to making the second wave a beast but who knows. I do know they say a storm delayed is a storm denied. Going to come down to the confluence and timing of NS waves ripping thru the Northeast. GEFS still has a equal split of suppressed, hits, and full phases. Interestingly the full phases are more snowfall this run than last few. Some HECS in there. If we get to 96 hours and start moving away then time for concern but attm still several options on the table. Conventional wisdom says around 84 hours the mesos start picking up and sampling energy better and draw us all in with some solid solutions. Then the globals follow them. Curious to see if that happens this time.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Was looking at individual GEFS members....there are now a few that stall the low off of NC/SC then crawl it North off S NJ coast over a 2 day+ period. Most of those members are also N of the mean. Needless to say that scenario wouldn't be an all snow event but would be a mess for coastal areas irt tidal flooding. Lots of options still on the table with this one.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    GEPS mslp...quite a few members N and W of the mean
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Positive changes overnight. Not all surface maps are on board yet but not too concerned. I saw what I wanted to and needed to see at 500mb with the overnight runs.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Thanks
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    But the 500mb mean looks much improved. Cant make this stuff up.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    So the best part of waking up really isn't Folgers in your cup?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Not models....merely guidance. They were never created or programmed with the sole idea of providing a solidly "modeled" forecast. They were designed to help forecasters see the atmosphere with more detail to aid in creating a forecast. But that's another topic for another day. Like they say, live by the models die by the models.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep...not sure what happened to my fv3 post when it was out to only 96 hrs I must have accidentally deleted it, but by that hour you could already see the lead NS vort with confluence moving out of the way and heights building. Good stuff.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    6z gfs had some changes at 500mb irt confluence lifting out faster. The fv3 did the same. This is starting to gain that look of a classic track TN to off Carolinas to inside Hatteras then NE/NNE. More support gained. Note the differences over the Northeast with the overall relaxing of confluent flow allowing for more of a N track. Flow is backing along coast and trof trying to go negative.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Night and day. In particular irt confluence and flow near NS and energy trying to phase near the Dakotas.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    One thing we are starting to see is the idea that this takes more of a classic track ie off Carolinas coast towards or inside hatteras then NE/NNE as opposed to those runs past that were off the Carolinas then due E or even ESE. Upper levels gaining some support for this.
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