Ralph Wiggum

6z GFS is about as perfect as you want to see at this point. Best to not be in the bullseye at this range so those EPS Southern hits and this gfs with jackpot also south give us wiggle room. And still snowing after this panel irt the ull pass.

Storm next weekend starting to show more potential. Signals still mixed due to weak ridging at high lat and interaction or lack of between STJ and PJ. EPS are a mix of Southern hits, direct hits, and I95 mix with NW burbs hits. Majority are South, the others are basically a mix of NW hits and 95 hits. Here are a few of the i95 hits

And still going waiting on ull to pass thru

Dead puppies

I will take the 984mb off the DelMarVa for kicks and giggles.

Lol yep a squashed Southern storm on one and a Miller B OV to off of NYC redevelopment on the other. Just some minor differences between the two hehe.

At least no puppies were sacrificed at 12z. That means lead time is slowly lessening on this threat.

Euro just woofed for the Dec 8-11 potential. However it also hasn't exactly been "the King" at this range since the upgrade. Solid signal for tracking potential though.

Euro op has been lights out deadly at this range since the upgrade!

Dec 5th thread fizzled....DOA it seems. Dec 8-11 period still bears watching....long way out there obviously. Latest op guidance clustering around a tucked look with coastal slp onshore or very near onshore around DelMarVa. Nao ridge nonexistent and allows HP to move out and storm to come n and w. Ens are mixed between sliders and another cluster of tucked lows. We were able to cash in back in Nov so we will see. Things to keep an eye on are the pieces of STJ energy moving across the US, the nao and if it can pump a ridge at the right time, and the WAR which is trying to foul things up. Very typical Nino look imo.

NAO ridging timed properly to lock in hp

Ways out there but the warmish thermals have some credibility as we now have more of a tucked look on many pieces of guidance and this early with a warmish ocean still a tucked low probably wont cut it for i95 but this is all cloud talk as there is quite a ways to go. But this is the reason we are going to need NAO ridging this year. In many Nino patterns the tendency is cut or tucked. Without the nao ridging what we saw on the cmc, and the gfs family makes perfect sense. But again plenty of time and at least we have something to track again this early in the season.

As long as the EPO/PNA tandem are setup at a good longitude I fully agree. BUT, any deviation to the West, then without some sort of NAO blocking wont we be looking at cutter city?

That raging +NAO doesnt bother you at all? Or are you speaking solely about the PAC oscillations? It seems we can hardly get both PAC and ATL to time themselves in unison anymore. Maybe a decadal anomaly?

I know I read here that a puppy dies every time a 384 hour surface map gets posted, but what happens when a 200+ hour snowfall clown map or 850-line map gets posted? Please tell me the consequential sacrifice isn't as severe.

I'll take e7 and a bag of popcorn for 600 alex.

Radio show and storm mode should be implemented ASAP.

Have been watching the period between the 8th and 11th rather closely as there are back to back shortwaves moving thru the region. EPS took a large step forward irt the overall pattern evolution and the GEFS are starting to merge towards a coastal LP scenario with cold enough air around for a potential frozen event. However, while not overly enthused, we shouldn't look past Dec 5th too quickly. With the pattern being so fast changing right now guidance is still flopping around from run-to-run irt the handling of 500mb energy which is forecast to pass under the region. Again, flow is fast and doesnt really allow the subsequent trof to turn negative but this has the looks of a possible short range surprise minor event as a surface low tries to spin up while the UL energy swings thru.

Precisely! Only if it shows what we want should we bother looking at it.

Puppies....more dead puppies piling up faster than seasonal snowfall totals.

No reason other than personal for my own log purposes. End of season I guess I can pad the snow stats and include sleet in a separate column. I will also pad with fall snow and spring snow

Damn, y'all are just mass murdering puppies today. Poor things...they didnt do anything.

I agree and hopefully we can cash in during this with another 'bonus' event before the mid month advertised PAC air regime overwhelms N America. That might be a break before winter truly starts in earnest later in the month. Starting to finally see a few positive signs anyway. Cheers.

This period would make sense as the ens has the pattern relaxing right around this time as we transition from BN temp regime and transition to the PAC air push. These are when we usually cash in. The roller coaster look on the ens looks to continue as I mentioned before this may not be a bad thing as transitions usually yield our chances as opposed to just wall to wall cold.

Not a ton of support right now but some mixed signals being tossed around on guidance for Dec 5 give or take a day. Wave may try and slide under the region if we can time it properly with some ridging up North.