Ralph Wiggum

I love when you talk dirty sir!

Both of our respective regions tend to cash in when the rubber band snaps back so maybe like you said, if we can time things properly we can get another bonus event before calendar winter begins.

These cold snaps are in and out with any N Atl blocking being transient thru mid Dec. Hopefully like isotherm and others have mentioned 2nd half of Dec swings into more climatologically favorable regimes.

Curious...what is their call for the 2nd half of Dec? Colder I presume like the majority of other outlets I have read? Most data I am looking at has us averaging AN generally thru at least mid Dec. BN days are one and done mostly. Pattern looks continual.

I would look more at trends on the ens as opposed to a D+10 prog on a model that is to be retired in January due to inconsistencies and errors but that's just me.

I keep reading posts that as long as the AO is negative we will score BIG this winter. Not sure I totally agree with that theory but at least the LR ens show that anyway. Zonal flat ridge across USA with mean trof out west tho? Blech.

Is that where we want to see the strongest ridging in the hemisphere setting up shop?

Willing to wager when the cold comes we go dry and suppressed. Not that this is really going out on a limb or anything but it is virtually inevitable. However, if we can get the cold snaps even with suppression we should cash in as the rubber band snaps back, so to speak ie the pattern relaxes. Again, nothing earth shattering there but people need to remember cold outbreaks usually dont mean snowstorms.....its when it relaxes we tend to cash in. This season is going to require extreme patience by some imo.....the outlook I posted in the other subforum is leaning towards a cutter type of pattern overall so people are going to freak when we r getting cutter upon cutter then it goes cold and dry. Patience is going to be more important than usual this season especially given the early Nov tease we had. I think alot of folks are expecting wall to wall wintry weather based on this alone.

Isn't this typical December Nino look tho?

For balance, the GFS family is faster to knock down the SE ridge thus more seasonal during the same time period so *maybe* this is a case of the Euro holding energy back in the SW and Plains and pumping that Eastern ridge in response (in error/bias?). Unsure if this was ever fixed with the Euro upgrades or not so just thinking out loud. As others have said....volatile pattern. Could be quite the roller coaster ride as we move thru December.

It is a ways out there but a stretch of AN temp days looking more and more likely into early December. Beach day anyone? Would rather see this now than in January but certainly doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

Glancing at the overnight op models and LR ens basically status quo for this time of year as we go forward thru about the 2nd week of Dec. I realize and dont ever really expect much wintry weather before Christmas usually but what really concerns me is that when the NAO goes negative on the ops and ens we are still ending up with cutters and storms heading to our N and W. Maybe this is something that will change as we move further along in time and we can get redevelopment farther S and E...not sure. Just noting that these looks arent exactly working out yet timing-wise ie when the PAC looks good the ATL looks bad and vice versa. I'm not sure one or the other will do it for us durung this Nino year. We *probably* are going to need both sides working in tandem. With that said tho it is funny how we have had more frozen past 2 years during mediocre patterns and have basically had nothing to show besides cold temps during 'epic' teleconnection indices. I guess those epic looks are more for producing KU storms which goes to show just how difficult they are to produce.

EPS depict the concerns I had going into the LR....neg NAO retrogrades and develops into a mid lat ridge centered near the Miss river then progresses into a quasi SE Ridge with trof developing out West. Of course this isn't the be all end all for winter....probably just means we wait a little later into the month for a pattern reload which isn't necessarily a terrible thing. There is plenty of cold air building across the top which if the strat PV consolidation and progs hold any weight spell a bitter cold outbreak on our side of the N hemisphere somewhere around the 3rd week of Dec.

Have a feeling we are going to be playing the LR tease game for a while on guidance. Pattern and blocking was looking really good in the LR for a while but now we are seeing signs that the pattern will be short-lived and we *might* be headed into a typical Nino-ish December after the first few days. Unclear on this though as signals are mixed but if we go with history and decadal oscillation patterns one would tend to side with the -NAO transient look rolling over on itself with a possible trof setting up in the West and a flat ridge in response in the East. Again purely speculation but with the variance in the ens in the LR and how we are already seeing a backing off on some of the high lat blocking looks, leaning towards a pattern reversal as we move past very early Dec. Like I posted elsewhere tho and agree with Paul, chances will be there for a period and maybe even a surprise at small lead times but overall keep in mind it is still fall and we have been spoiled with bN temps and aN snowfall.....for now.

Watching this period also. I dont dislike this look at all....50/50 low, flat Caribbean ridge, energy in the plains undercutting riding N of the GL, more energy sitting in the GOM, ridge popping out West at the right time as an intense ULL crashes into the West Coast. This is an active pattern we are entering which will favor plenty of chances. Most will probably crap the bed but this is the type of setup that we could all get a surprise payout.

17f....vodka cold

Paul there is always a chance. I need to see actual production from the atmosphere to satisfy my snow appetite.

Flizzard happening attm 38f and tanking.

Quiet in here. Arctic blast for Thanksgiving with sub freezing high temps should make it one to remember. Lows Thursday night low teens. Friday morning gonna be bitterly cold for those early Black Friday shoppers. Pattern looks ok going forward but nothing earth shattering. Maybe we can sneak a shortwave under us and score some light snows late Nov early Dec. Nice storms popping up in the periods I mentioned previously but the first looks warm relatively speaking. Longer range weaken the N Atl and NAO rigging and try to shift the trof out west with flat ringing in the East. Would fit the typical December Nino flip but signals are mixed. I am hearing this Nino is 'different' so I'm not exactly sure what that equates to. Guess we will see. Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone!

Starting to think the Nov 25-30 event is the stage setter for the early Dec (3rd-7th?) larger scale threat that is surfacing on LR guidance. It is noteworthy to see individual shortwaves and systems being depicted on some of the LR ensembles repeatedly. Generally these features are smoothed out so this definitely merits some attention going forward.

Hopefully the ridge developing over the Eastern plains doesnt link up with the fading/retrograding NAO ridge....that would be bad. A mid or full lat ridge centered over the Mississippi River longitude would basically equate to the pattern rolling over on itself. It's a long way out but keep that 50/50 there, keep the NAO ridge in tact or at least separate, and keep the bowling ball coming across and we might be in business. Like you said.....interesting.

If ever there were a season where my winter outlook had a chance to bust severely, this is probably the one. Like I posted in the final few sentences of my outlook earlier in this thread, much will hinge on how the N Atl blocking (NAO) takes shape. I will repeat this idea again....we will have our storms and moisture and we will have the cold outbreaks given the typical nature of Nino years but generally the i95 corridor's fate is determined by the NAO. The looks going forward on some of the ens as we enter late Nov and early Dec are good ones. Neg NAO is there on the progs. It us whay we want to see if you like snow. It is whether this feature can hold for most of the winter or if we see an el Nino driven reversal with the pattern rolling over on itself which is what will determine how the winter plays out in our sub forum. Fingers are crossed. Some ens hold the neg NAO thru the run others are fading it out quickly. Time will tell.

PAC looks good, Arctic looks good, Atlantic is blah. The brief NAO tank that is being advertised for the last week in Nov is looking more and more transient with the Atl side rolling over on Itself as December begins with a progressive look in the East. Maybe we can time something right for a quick hitter during the period you posted? Or maybe we get an Archambault system last week of Nov as NAO flips from neg to positive? The cold air shouldn't be a major issue based on these progs. We could certainly have worse looks. First things first tho, I like the Nov 25-30 period for a threat.

89-90 was essential a la nada or neutral during the winter....enso was transitioning from strong Nino into a weak nina. 2011-12 was a weakening moderate nina.

We must be looking at different areas and research points? Eta: I'm looking broadly at moderate el Nino years and novembers qith large snowfalls in philly.