Ralph Wiggum

Even in the LR range this op shows the perfect fail scenario. This is opposite of what it has been showing and what many of the ens show but like I said (and I never trust op models at range) but this run was a good example of what *could* go wrong.

Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward.

UKMET cutter likely not happening given the trof axis and pv up top.

6z GEFS have improved the look for next Sunday. Colder..slightly better slp track. Big SECS/MECS hit for i95 on the means. Individuals are dropping the HECS look (a couple mixed in) but that may not be a bad thing. Lots of spread/uncertainty tho still between the various globals. Eta: @DCTeacherman ninja'd

If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to impossible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass.

1" on the nose here

I'll pass thanks

2m temp means never above freezing so yeah we take. Good start at this range. Let's get thurs-fri refresh appetizer then bring this step to the epic pattern home with a secs/mecs.

18z GFS is a 1'+ MECS most of PA including Philly....little ice or sleet this run.

EPS overall look is colder. Probably more of a sleet/ice/snow....even some plain rain signature than all snow. Dont think it's all rain either. Individual eps members are mixed. There are some HECS, some MECS, smattering of SECS.....some wild ice and sleet storms, some far NW crushers, some shutouts....everything but the kitchen sink. That sick mass of below zero to the N is what has me concerned.

When's the next ALEET?

Scary part is there is ens support for this....maybe not to this extreme but the signal is clear.

Most of that is not snow

Hmmm, eps looks like a big ice/sleet event for parts as well.

FV3 is a massive ice/sleet event for a huge chunk of the big i95 cities. Biggest I think I've ever seen modeled personally. Doubt it plays out verbatim but huge signal popping up across guidance now. Odd setup for an ice storm not the usual CAD. Not impossible tho either. Sleet probably more likely with that look. Either way glacier city.

Keeping an eye on Friday....looks like a sneaky little event trying to move thru. FV3 for the larger event over the weekend is one of the biggest impact ice/sleet storms I ever remember seeing modeled for i95. Philly verbatim sees 3-3.5" LE heavy ice and sleet followed by a burst of heavy snow. Then frigid cold. Would make 1994 look like child's play. Glaciers for weeks and no power up and down i95.

After the storm system next weekend, looks like the pattern gets overwhelmed with cold in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. Problem with that is most guidance looks dry as well tho who knows m how individual shortwaves will perform after next week. Wouldnt be surprised at all tho to see us go thru an extended period of cold/dry.

Hrrr has it snowing up here thru tonight now and has nudged the coastal low n and w with every run. Might eek out a half inch yet lol.

Nary a mention of the fvc3po with temps well below zero morning of MLK day? Even the gfs is in the low single digits. The fv3 loop of 2m temps is just ridiculous. Near the end of the run the entire Northeast part of the US is below zero. I thought I saw a high of 4 degrees the one day. We know that likely wont verify but regardless there is some anomalous well BN cold on the way. If u havent winterized yet u r just about out of time.

Nice....0" here per this forecast.

I have my humidifier cranking....that will help us out

EE both 1-3" up here still fits my original call. However higher qpf nudging into S PA now. S NJ nice hit on all guidance now. And that was more than a tick on the NAM that was a 75 mile move N and just west of 12z irt surface lp. That is rather large jump

Surface low West of Hatteras now oh wow

North tick again

I wouldnt worry nor would I even get overly invested in this being 7 days+ out. Raising an eyebrow of interest for sure tho.