Ralph Wiggum

0z GGEM right on the coast or just inside, 0z GFS southern slider, 0z Euro amped and in Ohio. About right at this range. GFS is slow moving out the Southwest ULL so never phases. GGEM and Euro phase as the energy in the stj comes East but big diffs in timing of the NS sw. A fluke is still possible but without the Atl cooperating and no HL block going to be tough to get an all snow situation out of that. I think it was Bob that mentioned a cut West thump to rain is most likely in this setup if a full phase were to occur. Less of a phase would be better and that would likely benefit you guys more under the M/D line as it slides. At least we have something to track. Expectations in check for this one tho.

Picked up one tenth of an inch of snow this morning.

So if I am reading this correctly, Isotherm is basically saying a wasted first part of winter with majority non-snow events and a struggle even into the mid portion but turning favorable second half? And Ray is saying favorable first half of winter but a wild card for the second half where he expects the Pac to turn hostile and relying on N Atl blocking to save us? Two of the best and most knowledgeable guys on the boards and two completely different takes. Good reads from both of them lately.

I have the utmost respect for Tom and his knowledge of atmospheric science and meteorology. But I couldnt help but chuckle while reading this as I pictured Tom in a fitted suit in court as a paralegal presenting his case to the judge and jury. Very professionally presented!

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful. Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power.

So open arctic waters = blocking/ridging patterns with displaced jet streams? That is some interesting stuff. So if a hole formed in the Arctic Circle near the N Pole should we expect a -AO? I'm not seeing how such a small scale feature would cause the entire jet structure to buckle and 'meander' North. The nature.com article may not be inaccurate as the biblio shows they drew heavily on legit sources. But I cant see how that small area has more say in driving the patterns than the entire Pac/PDO influence. Interesting discussion tho.

Not sure I agree with the Chukchi Sea driving the EPO ridge. Chicken/egg argument. The PDO is likely more of a factor on why the EPO has been such a feature more than not the last 8 years to a decade. That ridge is leading to warmth and yes the open waters where you mentioned. But such a relatively small body of water is doubtful to be one of the main reasons for the repeated ridging in the area. Also, note that ridging in the EPO is actually being fed across the pole from old western Russia over the Pole then down into the EPO region. But yes, the EPO is certainly helping to buckle the flow. We just disagree on what the catalyst is for said ridging. I believe the state of the PDO keeping the Aleutian low in play is more the reason than the small pool of open waters N of Alaska. The atmosphere affected the waters/ssts not the other way around imo.

There were quite a few that had early Dec mild and the tail end turning favorable as of 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now we are hearing just the opposite from several sources. I try and base my expectations on day 10 and under. I've learned that sure you can get clues past day 10 but predictability is rather low. Now we continue to see 10 day and under progs hanging on to a general cooler look and holding off any firehose/torch out past day 10. The delay keeps reoccurring for now anyway and HL blocking (AO/EPO/some NAO) keeps popping up mid range. Any warmth looks transient next 10 days in advance of arctic fropa. We will see how much longer the delay in pattern flip to 'blah' continues. I'm happy where we are for now and with some of the recurring tellies that are showing up as possible background state.

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op.

Warm Dec calls are losing steam quickly it appears. Many of the tellies those forecasters were keying on haven't evolved nor had any staying power yet. Too early to say tho but next 10 days....yeah. takes us to almost kid Dec and no torch.

Yep Philly to NYC. Had a coating here WSW had me 5-8". I'm reading NYC proper was expecting big totals and got almost zero....cant confirm that I dont follow NYC as much. Funny thing I noticed....years where our first storm is early and/or an overperformer the rest of the season has sucked. When we have had a busted first event the rest of the season is usually decent. Go figure. Sort of like when I'm striped bass fishing from the surf...if I catch on the first cast I usually dont catch the rest of the day and vice versa. Never fails.

Too progressive still but that wave you mention transitions to ridging upstream and slows things down for the period I am looking at.

There is a window of interesting disturbances and decent tellies Dec 11-16 give or take which while not screaming 'storm' holds some potential for a surprise.

I will say this...those sustained AN temp regime looks and blue balls over the N Pole keep getting pushed back and there is nary a sign of any SE ridge which many of the warm December forecasts were banking on. This cant be a bad thing as now the next 10 days look ok and takes us to almost mid December. It's a little premature for us to celebrate but many of those warm Dec forecasts may be quickly losing steam....no pun intended.

I realize about the WAR but before we enter prime climo an anti cyclone in the 50/50 spot usually hurts us more than helps especially with ssts still relatively warm. Now this look in another 3 weeks and we could probably get away with it. Love that Pac look tho.

Stole my thoughts. Pac and AO look great Atl goes to meh. Atl looks great and AO/Pac go to blah. Not a loss which isnt a bad thing. A split down the middle for now is acceptable. Need both sides to work in tandem this time of year. But as winter climo nears we can find ways to score without a tag team combo.

But that Atlantic side

Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle.

Ens means are picking up on the -AO sustaining itself thru Day 10 as well as a growing NAO ridge days 6-10. Wait and see situation as Bob says. Nothing too concerning. The EPS from 12z yesterday with the AN 850s out West across N America maybe a blip. More of a PNA ridge trying to show again. Guess a different wording yesterday would have been preferred such as "hope to see some amplification in the E Pac and not a flat flow into N America". The most favorable reoccurrences are the Aleutian low/EPO ridge, WAR which is displaced N more than last few years and is helping feed the ridge near Greenland at times, and the split flow off the West Coast. All have faded briefly at times but seem to be gaining steam as background states as they continue to show up. Unfavorable looks that surface now and then on the ens means continue to be pushed out past Day 10. Opposite from 2018-19 so far irt to good vs bad. Always chasing unicorns that got pushed back day 10+ last year. This year just the opposite so far.

First red flag on the EPS....day 10 screaming PAC jet into the West coast....western US and Canada flooding with PAC air. Rather get it out of the way now I suppose. Many pros seem to think big changes for the better are coming later in Dec.

Thru 240 on the EPS/GEFS/GEPS pattern isnt terrible. AO looks to go from positive back to neutral then negative. PNA starts then ends positive. Big EPO ridge...Aleutian low. Atl side is meh imo...nothing too exciting yet no major red flags either. Would be nice to get the NAO ridge to work in tandem with the favorable PAC teleconnections but maybe as we move thru the month. Again, thru day 10 no significant concerns and certainly not a shutout look. And that takes us closer to mid Dec so no complaints. Those day 10+ progs with collapsing patterns and PAC air flooding the US keep being pushed back for now.

Euro is close to something. Temps are close below the M/D line at glance. Didnt see precip maps. Eta: Better spot similar to tomorrow's storm ie Northeast PA, NY, NE...maybe a rain to backend snow

Both jet streams are somewhat progressive and the NS disturbance and SS disturbance remain separated on most if not all guidance. Would need a mechanism to nudge the SS to the North and/or amplify the NS....and then of course timing a phase would be the next obstacle. Worth watching but not a threat right now.

Squeeze play...under 7 days now. Bubble of hp on W North America and another squeezing over the Middle East. Looks like the warming over Siberia is legit and the SPV is getting pummeled. I'll leave it to the experts to decipher what it means but it cant be bad. Beats a strong SPV anchored over the N Pole that is stable and unpressured no?

Apparently all the weirdos come out of the woodwork as winter draws nearer.