Ralph Wiggum

You guys like that new band? December 2019 and the Trailing Waves. Heard they are touring the East Coast this month.

Basically every month for the next year is AN temps except April which is BN. Love me a CanSips mild torchy winter and cold rainy April lol. Maybe our big snow is early April this year. It's like taking the over in a football game....you're never really out of it until the bitter end.

How many members have this trailing wave irt Dec 11? I see the GGEM is still on board? Just curious what the spread looks like and if we are seeing any increases in the tendency for this development. As you said, these have more a tendency to fail. A progressive Atl flow doesnt help matters much.

Noticed some subtle but important changes in the GEFS mean irt the day 10ish storm evolution at 500mb. Figured maybe they were worth noting. Still progressive look in the N Atl but there is slightly more ridging ahead of the storm but more importantly imo is the separation between the stj disturbance and the NS/PV. That look of less phasing and more sliding is something that favors more white and less wet for you guys. So many options but looks like with this setup we either root for a heavy thump with the inevitable changeover and phase to the West OR root for all white but maybe sacrificing totals as it moves/'slides' quickly.

There is some ridging to the N of it and a well-timed transient 50/50 so it isnt horrible. Would like to see the ridging to the N of the ULL stay in tact and spread East with the system. Have actually seen that look quite a few times over the past 6 weeks or so as higher height break off the West Coast ridge and propogate downstream. Solid potential showing on the ops tho so there's that. But alas it will look different next run and the 36 runs thereafter lol.

Still eyeing the window centered around the 14th give or take 2 days either side for our next potential threat. Tellies in the PAC and AO regions are favorable...Atl side is meh but workable. Stj gets active and now the ops are beginning to show some specific systems in the time. PV sideswipes the region with moisture trying to attack the CAD that has been established. To phase or not to phase and timing/temp issues obviously. Way out there but something to watch as ens and now ops beginning to wake up. Here's the 6z GFS take. Mind you the euro is amped in Ohio so keep expectations in check for now. GfS has that same OV low. Without a true N Atl/Greenland block this setup is going to be difficult to force the slp off the coast. Favors more of a CAD to start thump to mix/rain scenario.

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok. Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take.

0z GGEM right on the coast or just inside, 0z GFS southern slider, 0z Euro amped and in Ohio. About right at this range. GFS is slow moving out the Southwest ULL so never phases. GGEM and Euro phase as the energy in the stj comes East but big diffs in timing of the NS sw. A fluke is still possible but without the Atl cooperating and no HL block going to be tough to get an all snow situation out of that. I think it was Bob that mentioned a cut West thump to rain is most likely in this setup if a full phase were to occur. Less of a phase would be better and that would likely benefit you guys more under the M/D line as it slides. At least we have something to track. Expectations in check for this one tho.

Picked up one tenth of an inch of snow this morning.

So if I am reading this correctly, Isotherm is basically saying a wasted first part of winter with majority non-snow events and a struggle even into the mid portion but turning favorable second half? And Ray is saying favorable first half of winter but a wild card for the second half where he expects the Pac to turn hostile and relying on N Atl blocking to save us? Two of the best and most knowledgeable guys on the boards and two completely different takes. Good reads from both of them lately.

I have the utmost respect for Tom and his knowledge of atmospheric science and meteorology. But I couldnt help but chuckle while reading this as I pictured Tom in a fitted suit in court as a paralegal presenting his case to the judge and jury. Very professionally presented!

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful. Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power.

So open arctic waters = blocking/ridging patterns with displaced jet streams? That is some interesting stuff. So if a hole formed in the Arctic Circle near the N Pole should we expect a -AO? I'm not seeing how such a small scale feature would cause the entire jet structure to buckle and 'meander' North. The nature.com article may not be inaccurate as the biblio shows they drew heavily on legit sources. But I cant see how that small area has more say in driving the patterns than the entire Pac/PDO influence. Interesting discussion tho.

Not sure I agree with the Chukchi Sea driving the EPO ridge. Chicken/egg argument. The PDO is likely more of a factor on why the EPO has been such a feature more than not the last 8 years to a decade. That ridge is leading to warmth and yes the open waters where you mentioned. But such a relatively small body of water is doubtful to be one of the main reasons for the repeated ridging in the area. Also, note that ridging in the EPO is actually being fed across the pole from old western Russia over the Pole then down into the EPO region. But yes, the EPO is certainly helping to buckle the flow. We just disagree on what the catalyst is for said ridging. I believe the state of the PDO keeping the Aleutian low in play is more the reason than the small pool of open waters N of Alaska. The atmosphere affected the waters/ssts not the other way around imo.

There were quite a few that had early Dec mild and the tail end turning favorable as of 2 or 3 weeks ago. Now we are hearing just the opposite from several sources. I try and base my expectations on day 10 and under. I've learned that sure you can get clues past day 10 but predictability is rather low. Now we continue to see 10 day and under progs hanging on to a general cooler look and holding off any firehose/torch out past day 10. The delay keeps reoccurring for now anyway and HL blocking (AO/EPO/some NAO) keeps popping up mid range. Any warmth looks transient next 10 days in advance of arctic fropa. We will see how much longer the delay in pattern flip to 'blah' continues. I'm happy where we are for now and with some of the recurring tellies that are showing up as possible background state.

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op.

Warm Dec calls are losing steam quickly it appears. Many of the tellies those forecasters were keying on haven't evolved nor had any staying power yet. Too early to say tho but next 10 days....yeah. takes us to almost kid Dec and no torch.

Yep Philly to NYC. Had a coating here WSW had me 5-8". I'm reading NYC proper was expecting big totals and got almost zero....cant confirm that I dont follow NYC as much. Funny thing I noticed....years where our first storm is early and/or an overperformer the rest of the season has sucked. When we have had a busted first event the rest of the season is usually decent. Go figure. Sort of like when I'm striped bass fishing from the surf...if I catch on the first cast I usually dont catch the rest of the day and vice versa. Never fails.

Too progressive still but that wave you mention transitions to ridging upstream and slows things down for the period I am looking at.

Was pretty much across the board on models for that area. Weird that all mesos failed within 18 hours of the event like this. But thus is the Miller B-hybrid occluded slp.

At least we got the dust off the old tracking links and we are officially inside met winter now. Would rather be tracking than be in a complete shutout pattern like recent Decembers.

There is a window of interesting disturbances and decent tellies Dec 11-16 give or take which while not screaming 'storm' holds some potential for a surprise.

I will say this...those sustained AN temp regime looks and blue balls over the N Pole keep getting pushed back and there is nary a sign of any SE ridge which many of the warm December forecasts were banking on. This cant be a bad thing as now the next 10 days look ok and takes us to almost mid December. It's a little premature for us to celebrate but many of those warm Dec forecasts may be quickly losing steam....no pun intended.

I realize about the WAR but before we enter prime climo an anti cyclone in the 50/50 spot usually hurts us more than helps especially with ssts still relatively warm. Now this look in another 3 weeks and we could probably get away with it. Love that Pac look tho.

These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged, and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area.