Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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CRAS also honking for a more amped up and bigger system. But then again what else is new.
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JMA has similarities to Feb 1983 leading up to that storm evolution imo. Just not as deep latitude digging in the stj but aligned similar with key features.
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6z ICON in a world by itself? Going for a delayed but much bigger storm for Monday now. Much more amped and diving N Plains sw into a better looking and consolidated stj sw at 120. Extrap likely a SECS/MECS.
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FVC3PO vs the world....has a 5-10" storm for SE PA and well defined upper energy while most other guidance seemingly is much flatter and more strung out. NAM may be NAMming us in its longest range....rather typical biases appearing. Again tho....we continue to see essentially an all or nothing type event on guidance ie light/light-moderate (c-2 with 3 inch lollis) vs SECS/MECS (4-8"+) for SE PA. Comes down to strength/consolidation of stj energy, phase vs non or late phase, strenth/location of confluence and related HP.
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FVC3PO is a good hit.....hasnt wavered.
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Most elongated and slowest moving upper level energy ever.
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Almost CRAS time good buddy
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- 2
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- we just jinxed it
- helluvaway to run a torch
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Low captured near Hatteras on the Icon? Stalled at the very least...tick NNW at one point as the ull opens. And what's that vort diving SE in the Plains at 132? Either way u slice things active pattern coming.
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Icon with a closed ull. Hmmm.
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Euro is a general 1-3" Southern PA.
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A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed
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Like I said a few days ago two scenarios....a phased SECS/MECS or a light-borderline moderate event. The former is on life support. I would be thrilled with flakes falling in any form.
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Wouldnt call it a trend on any model but they are clearly coming to a concensus/ middle ground.
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Noise
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That energy N of the GL is what the bigger ticket solutions phased in and helped draw it North. We could still score a light-moderate event with the stj sw still if it comes far enough N. I think we are losing the big ticket setup tho now so we can hope for the former.
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I'm with ya....not giving up but the flips and flops are laughable. 12z ICON says not happening.
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Agreed....the suppression thing is merely speculation for now until we see how the pattern evolves. Merely a possibility. I will say the control euro 45 day snow map doesnt scream loads of snow for the deep south . Not that it's right but I'm not seeing a strong signal there.
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Lol and like that all guidance takes a seat on the toilet and drops a big deuce with steps back and a much more sheared out look. The back and forth from run to run this year have been nothing short of breathtaking. I mean, we get 90% of guidance in one suite saying game on in a big way....then next suite the 90% say game off......then back to game on, etc. I will say this....the Euro hasnt and often doesnt make these flips from run to run and is generally the most consistent. On to the next threat or are we still holding out hope for a N trend and a SECS here?
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I guess we will see if this seasonal tendency thing is real with the coming weekend threat. What sucks about seasonal tendencies is even with a pattern shift the same general theme often presents itself. I dont necessarily agree with the sharp cutoff thing tho certainly possible....but based on the LR guidance I do have a strong suspicion on where things are headed in terms of apparent weather.
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DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.
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The baroclinic leaf and ull pass showing more and more on guidance (except euro) has the look of a classic 24 hour duration MECS.
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- 3
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- we just jinxed it
- helluvaway to run a torch
- (and 1 more)
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Someone may need to start a thread after 0z. I did well with the Jan 2016 but am 0 for 2 since then. Iceman?
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I do like how we are within 120 hours and things are slowly starting to step towards better solutions as opposed to stepping down. Usually a good sign. Feeling ok about this one regardless of the KMA and DT's very little N of Richmond jargon.
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FV3 is more of a double barrel low structure. A good SECS borderline MECS. The plot thickens.
