Ralph Wiggum

December to remember incoming

Autumn of azz

Fishing patterns have been scorching hot past few days and will only get better. No boredom here

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

But what about urban heat island effect? If it comes close to Miami for example it should ramp up to a Cat 6 with all that lift and convection and stuff no?

So does the NAM past 30 hours trash apply in the summer the same as with winter storms? 12k NAM stalls Dorian near Bahamas and implies a possible loop/recurve. But it's the NAM at range so we toss it right?

Why is it inevitable that comparisons to Andrew and Hugo are made any time a SE US landfalling cane threat occurs? Every. Single. Time.

HMON hates Miami

Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign.

I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right.

Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W.

Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to.

Battle of the mesos for tonight. Hrrr is colder where it matters as is the 12k NAM. However the 3k NAM warms 850s quite a bit more and farther NW than 6z even with a better slp track. The 3k actually was colder thru about 11pm at 850mb vs the 6z run but then goes bonkers warming that layer subsequently. One would think the 3k should be handling thermals better so for now I am going to give it some credence yet raise an eyebrow to the colder solutions.

Decided to just go ahead and make this thread since there was some confusion on where to discuss the event for tonight and early tomorrow morning. Latest Hrrr and mesos have trended even colder yet again. Here is the Hrrr for this event which does not include current snowfall. It is all snow here now. Looks like 3-4" in my area of Bucks Co per this model.

Less snowy and faster moving out than prior runs so not sure exactly what you're definition of 'pretty good' is.

So do your negative posts.

Congrats y'all! The year of the overproducer for my Southern friends. GL everyone and enjoy! @Jebman should be proud of this!

Just wanted to pop in and say good luck to everyone in this subforum. You all have been very welcoming to us Northerners and I am genuinely excited to see y'all cash-in. Hope it exceeds expectations!

Also yielded an increase in striped bass and monster bluefish at least down my way. Best fishing in years!

Link?

Who was qg_omega before the username change? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

Maybe Larry C was omto something and should have stuck with his original thoughts for a warmup. 6z GFS says winter ends and spring begins next week. I say bring it!

Euro has solid HP dominating where others have some sort of storm.

He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally!

Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.