Ralph Wiggum

Fishing patterns have been scorching hot past few days and will only get better. No boredom here

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

But what about urban heat island effect? If it comes close to Miami for example it should ramp up to a Cat 6 with all that lift and convection and stuff no?

So does the NAM past 30 hours trash apply in the summer the same as with winter storms? 12k NAM stalls Dorian near Bahamas and implies a possible loop/recurve. But it's the NAM at range so we toss it right?

Why is it inevitable that comparisons to Andrew and Hugo are made any time a SE US landfalling cane threat occurs? Every. Single. Time.

HMON hates Miami

This wouldnt be a terrible look at all in D-J-F but we all know that we wont see this again until next May

GFS is at it again in the LR. Was showing a long 10-day stretch of sustained negative temp anomalies run after run after run. Slowly backed off of that idea and now looking like avg to AN temps with only a few BN brief appearances. The HL blocking and West-based -NAO has been a nice treat but why always in the summer anymore and never during winter? Has little impact in the summer other than helping us avoid 100F.

Marble sized hail in Warminster earlier.

Missed my house by about a half mile. Isolated/localized damage.

So more of a line of storms tonight as opposed to the individual supercells from yesterday? We tend to always get shafted here with lines of storms for some reason. Strongest embedded cells always seem to go just S or N of my location. Plants look great tho this year so far. Nice wet spring and no super heat yet.

Bullseye

This afternoon looks slightly more volatile to me than yesterday, perhaps not as widespread but higher risk possibility. I have noticed in situations like this for whatever reason when there are similar patterns or flows for a couple of days with severe wx those that miss out on day one 9 out of 10 times will get hit on day 2 or 3. Hoping for some non-destructive boomers here. Last time I was able to photo a supercell to my east that went over me with the setting sun lighting up the towering cumulonimbus associated with the sc was about 25 years ago.

Spring of azz. We missed out too in Warminster. Literally had a cell right over us around 830pm had one flash of lightning and a low rumble of thunder and it was over. Maybe this afternoon.

Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign.

I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right.

Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W.

Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to.

Battle of the mesos for tonight. Hrrr is colder where it matters as is the 12k NAM. However the 3k NAM warms 850s quite a bit more and farther NW than 6z even with a better slp track. The 3k actually was colder thru about 11pm at 850mb vs the 6z run but then goes bonkers warming that layer subsequently. One would think the 3k should be handling thermals better so for now I am going to give it some credence yet raise an eyebrow to the colder solutions.

Decided to just go ahead and make this thread since there was some confusion on where to discuss the event for tonight and early tomorrow morning. Latest Hrrr and mesos have trended even colder yet again. Here is the Hrrr for this event which does not include current snowfall. It is all snow here now. Looks like 3-4" in my area of Bucks Co per this model.

Less snowy and faster moving out than prior runs so not sure exactly what you're definition of 'pretty good' is.

So do your negative posts.

Congrats y'all! The year of the overproducer for my Southern friends. GL everyone and enjoy! @Jebman should be proud of this!

Just wanted to pop in and say good luck to everyone in this subforum. You all have been very welcoming to us Northerners and I am genuinely excited to see y'all cash-in. Hope it exceeds expectations!