Ralph Wiggum

JB is blowing so much hot air it's overwhelming the pattern obviously.

What a difference a year makes. Even tho this was generally a coastal beast at least we were tracking significant threats

That and CPC has this ENSO classified officially as neutral which is what we call la nada correct?

And june-august will inevitably be long stretches of upper 90s and low 100s.

6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less.

Reverse psych....start posting in hopes of early spring and sustained warmth. Plan plenty of outdoor activities, beach walks, and picnics from here on out. Usually when we start hoping for nice weather and plan nice things Mother Nature flips cold and wet. Never fails. I mean this sort of joking obviously but I did just book my beachfront hotel stay on a S NJ resort from Jan 27-30 and hoping the AN temp weather continues at this point. Might even break out the fishing rod for winter (ha) flounder.

Instead of being skirted by some show or light precip to our South now looks more like a period of, you guessed it, heavy rain on a Saturday.....again.

Every local philly TV met went AN to much AN snowfall that I can recall. If any TV outlets went n to BN back in Oct or early Nov I would like to know who.

This as we approach week 3 of Jan....truly the meat and guts heart of winter, isn't going to cut it. One could argue on the gefs that at least there are finally widespread neg temp anomalies over N Americs but we keep pushing it back. Another 5-8 days from now and we r punting all or January. Not there yet but signs are starting to show up. I guess Feb could rock but I mentioned a while back this is setting up to possibly be a 2-week back loaded winter....and that may be generous at this point.

This is like explosive atmospheric diarrhea over the PAC and lower 48. Only thing giving is mother nature's bowels and we r getting crapped on repeatedly. I'm hanging in til Jan 15 barely. Clock is ticking.

Yeah but we're back to unicorn chasing at the tail end of an ens run. We were starting to get things to move close over the past 5 days or so irt lead time lessening but now we r back to square 1 again delaying any changes to past 240 hours if not longer. And if u are watching the 2m temp anomalies drive the CPF and bn temps west of the continental divide and seem to want finally want to establish they regime out there while we push AN still in the east. Like I said I'm trying not to look past 10 days anymore but man it sure seems we are losing some of the stepping-up looks we were seeing out West over the next 8-12 days.

Enso is in a neutral phase and is not even a Nino attm per CPC so yeah.

I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order.

You know its inevitable. When 70 degree days repeatedly start showing up in early March on the Gefs GEPS and eps with 15 day leads we wont see them verify until June. We'll be chasing unicorns again. Then it will go from 40s straight to upper 90s right thru Oct

This mild winter is great on the heating bill I hope this continues. Oil demand is lower and this is great on gasoline prices. Thinking a nice family outing Jan 20th or right after to DC. This will be a great early year for cherry blossoms and daffodils I'm certain.

Hopefully we can get some sustained warm sunny and dry weather I would love to take the family on a picnic. Parades, 4th of July, apple pie......bikinis.

5 weeks til pitchers and catchers report, days getting longer, sun angle, Memorial Day.....think warm thoughts. Weather always turns BN temps when we want warmth. Hopefully we hit 70 next week.

U could also argue u would expect the gefs and geps to start looking worse.

This pattern was extremely well forecast by many at the end of November where December was going to be punted specifically based on Nino (tho u could argue it was a wash for other reasons but end result was the same) and first half of January was always our transition as we approach a wintry pattern in mid month. Anything before January 15 was and is still considered a bonus. I wont disagree with your post, yes, the pattern sucks but we knew this going in. Hang in.

We need that SE ridge to maintain a little flex and not get completely crushed then yes this has all the markings of an epic gradient or sw flow event pattern setting up.

Yep a cross polar flow straight into the central US in mid January certainly is warm. If u buy those temp anomalies you posted based on that 500 map then I have oceanfront property for sale in Nebraska.

In reality next week's threat will probably end up a New England storm but imo that us a step in the right direction irt the pattern change and our chances moving along into the 2nd half of January. Once we start to see areas up N cash in our areas will follow.

Interesting adjustment on the 12z vs 6z gfs op irt next week. Pumping a big ridge out west, strengthening the neg nao, energy coming much farther south. If these adjustments continue wont be too long til we have energy coming south of us ala 0z euro control. Eta: cant add trend gif attm due to attachments maxed out sorry dont have time to delete stuff right now.

Unless I am reading this incorrectly, this seems just fine to me. I understand an argument can be made that the eps based mjo are performing better but who knows if/how much longer that could continue. GFS/GEFS mirror the GGEM/GEPS and they are distancing themselves from the Euro/EPS somewhat. Guess we will find out soon enough which side is correct. I am feeling some freak changes for the good once we complete the current SSWE and we are already seeing some positive signs so I am cautiously optimistic and feeling good right now. We are essentially where we said we would want to be on Jan 2 a few weeks ago. No need to punt January or force a sack at this point.

I have said it several times since November and will repeat my thought....the SE ridge is going to be our savior for a period later in the season. Whether that is late Jan or farther down the road tbd but once we get energy kicking out of the SW undercutting the split flow ridge out west and if there is a gradient setup ie battleground, that feature is going to cause either a storm to track closer rather than slide South and/or cause a very juicy overrunning environment. Time will tell but I like seeing that ridge pop here and there.....beats a progressive flow off the sE coast. I will gladly take a roller coaster ride of weather swing to have a chance to cash in on something really good. Gotta go big and take chances if u want a shot at the jackpot.