Ralph Wiggum

There is a window of interesting disturbances and decent tellies Dec 11-16 give or take which while not screaming 'storm' holds some potential for a surprise.

I will say this...those sustained AN temp regime looks and blue balls over the N Pole keep getting pushed back and there is nary a sign of any SE ridge which many of the warm December forecasts were banking on. This cant be a bad thing as now the next 10 days look ok and takes us to almost mid December. It's a little premature for us to celebrate but many of those warm Dec forecasts may be quickly losing steam....no pun intended.

I realize about the WAR but before we enter prime climo an anti cyclone in the 50/50 spot usually hurts us more than helps especially with ssts still relatively warm. Now this look in another 3 weeks and we could probably get away with it. Love that Pac look tho.

These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged, and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area.

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

Stole my thoughts. Pac and AO look great Atl goes to meh. Atl looks great and AO/Pac go to blah. Not a loss which isnt a bad thing. A split down the middle for now is acceptable. Need both sides to work in tandem this time of year. But as winter climo nears we can find ways to score without a tag team combo.

But that Atlantic side

Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle.

But even so I see no more than 1 inch on any guidance.

Sun is out here.

I'm in Ivyland on the edge lol. Starting to see it pivot away on radar outside of that narrow band. Fingers crossed on the afternoon/evening but guidance continues to back off.

"Heavy" snow? Congrats. Heaviest convection now moving across the river and N of Trenton like the models caved to last night. Flurries here....all but over. Doubt we see much with the afternoon/evening batch: Eta: Headed to BK soon for my routine snowfall Whopper in your honor sir

Band over Bucks is starting to slowwwwly fade and migrate NE. Looks like a break coming and a second batch later today. Have a very light coating here in Warminster...skeptical if we can squeeze an inch of snow out of this system here. The afternoon/evening will be crucial irt totals across the area.

Well I went lower but we'll see. This batch is a nice surprise. All mesos show this batch fading and the death band setting up across the river between 10 and noon so that's the time to keep eyes on the radar and see how/where things are progressing.

Maybe the HDRPS will score a win with the 24" lolli over our area

Uber deathband of 1" per 24 hour rates here!

Ens means are picking up on the -AO sustaining itself thru Day 10 as well as a growing NAO ridge days 6-10. Wait and see situation as Bob says. Nothing too concerning. The EPS from 12z yesterday with the AN 850s out West across N America maybe a blip. More of a PNA ridge trying to show again. Guess a different wording yesterday would have been preferred such as "hope to see some amplification in the E Pac and not a flat flow into N America". The most favorable reoccurrences are the Aleutian low/EPO ridge, WAR which is displaced N more than last few years and is helping feed the ridge near Greenland at times, and the split flow off the West Coast. All have faded briefly at times but seem to be gaining steam as background states as they continue to show up. Unfavorable looks that surface now and then on the ens means continue to be pushed out past Day 10. Opposite from 2018-19 so far irt to good vs bad. Always chasing unicorns that got pushed back day 10+ last year. This year just the opposite so far.

Just saw they upped the WSW totals to 5-8" here. Not sure what time that was but I'm curious if they back down or just let that ride?

This isnt really a true Miller B....more of a hybrid. Regardless it isnt the Miller B "jump" to the coast that screws us today. It is the old occluding ragged storm scenario. Those pinwheeling lows always seem to struggle with filling in the precip shield and tend to overdo expanse on guidance leading up to the event.

I'm think coating to an inch city and immediate burbs, 1-3" LV, NW Bucks/Montco. 3-6" Poconos. Cant speak to the WSW outside my area which wont come close to verifying. C-2" here in Warminster.

Almost unanimous now:

Just some subtle changes lol:

Well people probably shouldn't look at the NAM then

No details?

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.