Dude, you've been posting these epic looks for like 2 months now....weeklies, monthlies, ens, etc. Eventually you will hit. You are this forum's JB, without a doubt sir...and I mean that with all due respect.
I mean I kinda know that we would be relying on a backloader going into the winter, but are we really on to Feb now? If that's the case we are running out of time, yes?
I'm talking farther out there where the NAO flips positive. More long range vs mid range in fantasy land. Maybe the flip is where we get our Archambault.
I was joking of course....but that overall look presented on the ens would be more of a suppression trend imho. That is, if those looks held and are close. I would take my chances with those look 7 days a week tho and I have more to lose wrt suppression up in SE PA where I'm at. I do like where we are headed....quite a bit actually.
That week is looking like a January thaw on some ensembles. Cold pours in next week then rebounds as quick as it showed up. I hope you are correct tho in your call. I wouldn't be popping champagne bottle yet tho based on some of the telleconnections during that period. Last 5 days of Jan into Feb looks prime.
We r teetering on an avocado look there. We dont want the entire pattern overwhelmed with a displaced frigid PV. Though the is an upside.....if that happens and we go frigid/dry (like my ex) we have a good shot once the pattern relaxes, so there's that.
LR look blech. Cutters then cold/dry. Longwave pattern doesn't look horrible but we've seen our share of good LR longwave stuff over the past few years that never produced, so color me skeptical. Savor any flakes today like this is it for a while.