Ralph Wiggum

Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today?

0z-12z Sat will really hone in. I think the Euro caves by 0z but I wouldn't be surprised to see it still squashed at 12z today.

6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically.

I dont think it happens, though it's not like we haven't seen it before....but if the Euro scores the win and shafts us and the mid atl I may just quit this hobby. This scenario is precisely how Dr No earned its name. I pray to the heavens, please, not this time lol. Honestly, pattern argues against the Euro and I'm betting against it, but we wait and see. I like where we're at right now.

Don't forget the stronger west based - nao and slightly better +pna ridge axis. What's not to like? (Psu please dont answer that wasn't meant for you )

Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not.

Nvm...user error. I saw 1/10 as 1/11 and vice versa. Wtf is wrong with me

Looks like op out to lunch. Ens mean following the Euro trend.

Primus Sucks! (Iykyk)

My question was rhetorical of course. Most here should be aware a smoothed mean won't pick up on those most of the time at that range.

But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece?

We are days away from a solution. @Terpeastis definitely correct, waiting until Saturday clears. Some guidance still showing a followup wave right on it's tail for the 14th. Until that midwest bomb clears, we just can't know.

Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"? I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore? I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something. That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening.

Here's @CAPE's followup wave showing up overnight Saturday. It's the NAVGEM tho, but at least one of the models picked up on it.

Not sure it matters but a few times this season we've counted on a 50/50 look at range to help compress the flow and anchor in some relative cold and it either came in much weaker and sheared at game time or zipped on thru the 50/50 domain. So that feature has in fact been a thorn in our side already. Again, not sure what we can glean from past events, just noting it.

Yer gonna need a bigger boat

"Roll away the dew" - Jerry Garcia

Yep, very reminiscent of a recent system, oh, say 3 days ago.

Dumb ways to fail.

Gonna take some work, but I think if we persevere we can all do this

GEFS took a move towards more coastal lows. Not quite where the eps is but a notable increase from 0z.

0z Euro is a MECS for 16th. EPS was also honking for the same time. CMC was close but couldn't figure out which energy to focus on. 6z GFS was a SECS. Euro had the cities on the line. Usual caveats apply at this range...7 days out. Time to track

Not sure WW even realizes it but that EPS 6hr precip and 850 map from 0z was absolutely screaming for a smoothed over blend of indiv ens. Talk about a jump. 6z gfs took a big step as well. Awaiting the gefs. Time to track...again. let's ride.

We shit the blinds for 7 days as we reload and regroup. Plenty of time still and no shortage of chances.