Ralph Wiggum

But I thought we were supposed to skip actual threats in lieu of pattern disaster discussion for fantasy range? Yes, the 1/4 system looks like the trend setter here. Becomes a 50/50 low and there is actual ridging in the NAO domain (not a WAR). This is exactly what we need and what we work with most of the time in Ninos...windows of opportunity. Many of us got our hopes up with those sustained looks for jan/Feb on the weeklies earlier this month, but sustained it proba ly won't be. I will take my chances with transient windows. At least we will have opportunities unlike last year.

Bro, great memory. That would be @The Iceman iirc. We need some reverse juju. We need to pull out all the stops here. Past few years I've put my winter jawn up in the house when the Christmas decor comes down. Maybe this year no snowmen figurines, no snow globes, no winter garden flag....pack the snowblower away. Heck, I am willing to sacrifice this new sled to the firepit tonight after a big Penn State win!! I will just tell the kids it got lost in transit. If we can get accumulating 6"+ snowfall this year, I'm willing to keep the Flyers and Sixers championship drought going for another 5 years. Whatever the heck it takes!

A new sled for my kids just arrived! That is either the kiss of death or the wakeup call to the snow gods.

Well, I think most of us were hopeful for something more sustained after seeing the optimistic weeklies last month for Jan and Feb. But this is looking more like a typical Nino....cold start with chance for something early...overall warmish, a mild period in January, and one decent sized frozen event somewhere during prime climo (late Jan-middle/late Feb). Beggars can't be choosers. And yeah lol I do agree with @ChescoWx we will surpass last year's totals at some point.

Nina=shit the blinds La Nada=snoozer Nino will save us! Joking aside these episodes have always been known for mildish winters and 1 larger scale frozen event later in the season after a January warmup. At this point everything is fitting to a tee.

We need another one of your late January maps with single digit temps and snow.

That says it all right there. Dec 30 and this is where we are. So lemme get this right...Ninas are shut the blinds, la nada is a sleeper, and Ninos just suck?

We need to get this to 1000 days and I will feel that we really accomplished something.

We need a vonit emoji. We also apparently need RedSky to sleep more if we want to see flakes.

I sort of half-joked in my home forum that at least we will have the annual mid to late March slush storm to look forward to. But in actuality, that could be true if these weeklies and extended products are even partly correct. If Jan 7 threat doesn't work out, it may be time.

Pretty sure PSU said that isn't a -NAO but, well, you know....that feature that I'm just getting over a phobia from

Well,I don't doubt your experience based on past climate. However, this is a very different beast we are dealing with and the Pacific is simply going against all historical data and manhandling the overall N Hem pattern. Nino can't even act like a Nino anymore. It is downrght alarming to be perfectly honest. I haven't given up completely. Like I said, I still expect a late season hit as is what we are growing used to these days.

I really hope those extended products are wrong. Who even thought trying to meet last year's totals was going to be a challenge?

Well boys, it was a good run. See ya in March for our annual 1 and done slush bomb.

Does anyone know which areas of the country are averaging AN snowfall as an avg over the past 5 years? Asking for a friend that is looking to move.

Alot of anger in here wth did I walk into? Pass the j

Ease off bro....there was A war like advertised on gefs before jan 2016 storm. That's a good thing I'm embracing it lol.

Anyone remember the WAR before Jan 2016?

I don't think this is all that horrible. Thumb ridge above Alaska with CPF coming around the back of the TPV near Baffin, pos height anomalies in nao domain, some SER to stop systems from sliding off the SE coast. That is a cold look with nowhere for stj moisture to come but N. Alright PSU, permission to 'roast' me

The WAR rages on

Damn this forum is manic depressive asf. I mean zero disrespect to anyone who suffers from bipolar disorder but g'damn....the cold is coming, the cold is not coming, the pattern is building, the pattern is collapsing, the LR is loaded, the LR is putrid. Ffs ppl

Still a few discrete threats in first 10 days of Jan....both very marginal for now but at least it isn't a complete shutout pattern.

I think this is what we want....not some sharp trough aimed at the SE. A central us centered broad trof will work...just need to time waves correctly.

Exactly. It's too funny how some folks are already out beyond mid month analyzing the back end (possibly?) of the better pattern while there are legit threats to track in the MR and LR. To the proud few here....don't ever change.