Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.
CMC also took a 150 mile jump South with the surface low off of SC. Still throws good moisture our way, better than GFS. But a notable increase in confluence and strength of HP to our North this run.
ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown.
12z ICON at 96 looks improved with the Baja ull moving out a shade quicker and also with the angle and strength of the sw diving South out of Alberta. Relative to its 6z run. Should be a better run.