12 days brings us to the 19th. That gives us 12 days at the end of the month to get to AN precip *if* nothing pops up before then. That is plenty of time, the month is far from over. See late Jan 1987 as an example.
If I had to split hairs, only trend i don't care for is last 4 gfs runs the Southwest energy is a little slower each time to come out. May not make a huge difference.
It is. But we are under 5 days now. If the gfs is going to score a coup we need a bigger jump imo.
Someone else said it, end result probably going to be up in-between the 2 like a CMC/ICON blend.