Ralph Wiggum

Im a C-2" guy but I will chime in. I can confirm i got 1.7 here. Was at half an inch until the narrow squall deathband came thru. Thought I heard thunder as well cant confrm that part. Little over an inch in 30 mins was insane. Ratios helped was 20F at that time too.

Ended at 1.7" here in ivyland. At 15.5 on the season

Heaviest snow of the day closing in on 2"...getting squalled

We got more than New England too? I think we're a snowtown once again.

Now you sound like my wife. Guess she's a closet winter weather buff or something.

I'm at the beer distributor if that counts

We excel at upper level troughs passing over us....always have.

Did we get more than the DC snowhole?

Currently on 309 south roads are a mess. Sun angle and junk

Agreed. This is just the last of the ull pass correct? I didn't see a norlun/iv trof signature unless I read the plots wrong.

A few drunk flakes falling here in Telford 25F.

Hey, I was sleeping....

That well-respected guy from that other sub forum did say this would be our best pattern all winter thru March 15, so we have that going for us.

That'll be the clipper to finally verify and we will end up 33 and rain probably at our latitude.

3k is having none of that

Wait did we just get NAM'd??

18z gfs says march coming in like a lion. March 2 and March 4 respectively. What could go wrong?

This was always an 'almost' all or nothing event. Anytime you try and work the tpv into the flow south of the Canadian Border and potentially a phase you run the risk. We walked the razors edge between a high-end mecs and a weakish wave/late bloomer. Unfortunately, the latter looks to prevail.

Whenever I see -epo forecast my first thoughts go to cold and no big storms. That's your nickel and dime teleconnection in general. As you said, give me an organic +PNA and a -AO. Nao phase isn't quite as relevant as many folks think wrt snowstorms here. It can snow in either phase. A -nao will tend to slow a storm down for sure tho. In short, I'm a firm believer PAC>ATL

This ^^^

The thing with this storm which was mentioned ad nauseum was the delicate balance between the tpv (or lobe of tpv) and the stj wave and how they might interact. This is why I go all march 2001 whenever I see that feature trying to get involved because a miniscule adjustment wrt the timing and Interaction of those features spells massive differences at the surface. That's why you hear me say we are looking at an all or nothing situation. This is the risk we run when getting the tpv involved. But with that said, the potential for a much larger storm exists as well. It's like playing the tables at a casino. You likely won't hit the jackpot unless you go big (involving the tpv)....and 99% of the time you ain't hitting....but that's the risk you take if you want a chance to win big. Or we can play conservative penny slots like we did all winter. All you're gonna win are nickels and dimes.

In the overall scheme of things, I'm not so sure this was an 'epic model failure' as some folks are declaring. We are still 3 days from this storm, and the trend to make.it a non-event started over 2 days ago. That's a 5-day lead that this wasn't likely going to work for us here. I think alot.of folks saw those mecs runs last week and locked into them assuming it was a guarantee. In my defense, I pointed out numerous times last week how this had march 2001 similarities ONLY WRT the TPV lobe getting involved and also noted how that variable tends to be misconstrued by guidance at that range and urged caution. Of course I got thown to the wolves for dare thinking such a thing. But I did join the party hoping we could salvage this. Unfortunately it was too late into the game and the writing was on the wall. Said it before will say it again....I do not care if every favorable teleconnection is screaming HECS 14+ days out. We can always get an epic pattern but getting said pattern to produce requires miraculous intervention.

The trend we r waiting for is on the gfs....spring pattern appearing.

12k nam ticked nw....has light snow back into extreme S NJ now lol

When they figure our avg seasonal snowfall, I wonder how that is determined? Is that a rolling 100-year avg? Does that avg get recalculated on a decadal basis? Would be genuinely interested in knowing.