Ralph Wiggum

NAM is rolling. Not seeing any major changes thru 3 hours.

Hurricane Schwartz posted a couple videos on social media. Common sense stuff...ignore the social media clickbait hype, dont trust anyone putting number amounts out yet at this range. He went onto add how well the euro ai and their ens have been verifying since early last summer essentially leading the way in model guidance. He then said this is actually an easy storm to forecast believe it or not, and will come down to i95 basically being the demarcation for the farthest n and w the mix will generally get with big amounts just to the left of that zone.

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice. 18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N. Need the bleeding to stop soon.

Op also has it but doesnt develop the Miller b quite as aggressively/early as the AI. This is a window to watch as a discrete threat is across most guidance now.

An air brigade is currently en route to the pacific to gather data for the 0z runs in an otherwise sparse data area. 0z runs are going to do 1 of 2 things imo, either really amp this system and track it farther N than we want or guidance will have a better slp handoff and nudged south. I think we will almost certainly see some big ticket changes.

Ai north

18z ai gfs has our 1/29 Miller b as an early developer that hits us again.

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

Is this the 1st run with the pac data ingested?

Well, icon is a big hit for Chicago with mostly a sleet event for extreme se pa points s and e. Never doubt either one of the KU duo...never.

Is this the gooning thread for the weekend?

Anyone getting flakes from this batch?

Do one of you fine folks have the time to please post the last 3 or 4 eps snowall means? I am trying to do a comparison. Thank you.

Spoken from the Godfather of KU storms, the literal U in KU, the man who co-authored the NE US snowstorm "bible". I am preparing now for the massive letdown over the next 90 hrs.

By "shit" are you referring to precipitation and surface low pressure?

12z euro is another bomb for the area. Euro AI also in line with the op and is a massive hit.

If youre patient it won't seem like a delay.

Just like Feb 2010. Cool, noted thanks.

Hold up for one gyat-damn second....those pinks over Philly BWI and DC are the heaviest snow and not sleet?

I fed the 84hr data into Gemini and it gave me a 3000 word diatribe that essentially said SE PA is a sleetfest if we extrapolation the NAM with New England getting the golden shovel .

Im over this weekend storm. Let's look to the feb 1 big dog!

0z tonight will be telling once all dropsonde data is ingested. All of these runs are general thoughts attm. Tonight we start to really close the goalposts and get a real idea of which of these current model thoughts are correct.

You're good, you do you and keep going.

The seasoned vet Randy majestically dribbling the ball down the court ready to perform a poster dunk doing his pbp and gets the ball ripped from his hands by a bench rookie on the same team nonetheless